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The flu kills an average of 40,000 every year. That's the average over the last 10 years. Sometimes its 70-80k.
Yes the flu kills 40k per year. C19 has killed 140k in 4 months with all the social distancing, masks and shut downs. So C19 can kill in a month what the flu kills in a year. Add to that studies that show up to 1/2 the people who have been ill and have recovered have long term heart issues.
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Originally Posted by bu2
Over 3 million have tested positive. Several studies using different methods shows the rate of infection is between 10 and 40 times that high. One study looking at different forms of immunity estimated as much as 70 times as many people don't know they have had it. So you are looking at a minimum of 30 million people have had it. Maybe 120 million or higher.
Not sure what that is suppose to mean. If one has immunity few a few weeks it really does not matter who has had it if they can get it again. And looking at the NBA and MLB players tested recently only a small percentage tested positive.
I saw a Chinese doctor interviewed who had to flee China because they would kill her..she says this thing could be the end of mankind on Earth.
It says right in the Bible that the good lord will send pandemics if he becomes unhappy with our behavior and the only way out is to repent our sins. Pretty sobering stuff.
And so far the only mutation has been one that made it more infectious. I wouldn't spend too much time hoping for a benign mutation. While it could happen, its unlikely at this point.
It has not become "more infectious". It was always airborne. There are just more "hosts" now.
“The outbreaks look similar at the beginning. But in the heterogeneous population, individuals are not infected at random,” she told me. “The highly susceptible people are more likely to get infected first. As a result, the average susceptibility gets lower and lower over time.”
Effects like this—“selective depletion” of people who are more susceptible—can quickly decelerate a virus’s spread. When Gomes uses this sort of pattern to model the coronavirus’s spread, the compounding effects of heterogeneity seem to show that the onslaught of cases and deaths seen in initial spikes around the world are unlikely to happen a second time. Based on data from several countries in Europe, she said, her results show a herd-immunity threshold much lower than that of other models.
“We just keep running the models, and it keeps coming back at less than 20 percent,” Gomes said. “It’s very striking.”
Scientists are learning that the actual "herd immunity threshold" is far lower than once thought, around 20% of the population, not the 60% "simplistic" explanations once held. This explains why the disease has largely "burned out" in some places, such as NYC, Spain and a number of smaller ski towns that had a very large outbreak, early in the Chinabug.
It just feels more safe to me, to stay in my immediate area, instead of venturing to nearby cities, or to places where others come from outside areas.
So far, this is working for DH and I. We are able to shop within a mile of our house, and when we do we are careful. We avoid the stores which draw folks from farther away, such as Sam’s Club. Not only does Sam’s draw people from far away, but they do not seem to be sanitizing carts or making aisles one way, or doing as much about social distancing as other stores.
It appears that some do not understand what herd immunity is about.
"Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune."
Herd immunity is achieved through vaccines or natural infections.
"For example, the measles is a highly contagious illness. It's estimated that 94% of the population must be immune to interrupt the chain of transmission."
"Even if infection with the COVID-19 virus creates long-lasting immunity, a large number of people would have to become infected to reach the herd immunity threshold. Experts estimate that in the U.S., 70% of the population — more than 200 million people — would have to recover from COVID-19 to halt the epidemic."
Scientists are learning that the actual "herd immunity threshold" is far lower than once thought, around 20% of the population, not the 60% "simplistic" explanations once held. This explains why the disease has largely "burned out" in some places, such as NYC, Spain and a number of smaller ski towns that had a very large outbreak, early in the Chinabug.
Toyman, this is ridiculous. How in the world would 20% of the herd having immunity protect the other 80% from passing it around.
It has not "burnt out" in NYC, Spain, etc. In places where Covid is under control, residents have gone to considerable effort to reduce the chance of transmission.
Toyman, this is ridiculous. How in the world would 20% of the herd having immunity protect the other 80% from passing it around.
It has not "burnt out" in NYC, Spain, etc. In places where Covid is under control, residents have gone to considerable effort to reduce the chance of transmission.
It is if more than half the population is naturally immune, which I suspect because I know 2 families where some members got it and others didn’t, even if they share the same household and spouses share the same bed.
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