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Why are we even having the election then? Please enlighten on on why he will win those states, because everything I'm seeing/reading doesn't show that.
Everything YOU are CHOOSING to see/read does not show that, but there are plenty of data indicators that show this election way closer and even favorable to Trump. You are not choosing to view any of them most likely, because the stuff you choose to look at in all likelihood comports with your preferred outcome.
That makes you just like, oh maybe....99% of the population?
Trafalgar, who had Trump winning in 2016, has Trump up in Michigan in a poll conducted Oct 10-14...just prior to the October surprise of Hunters laptop, and now his CEO's validaton of the laptops contents, and Chinese payola going to Joe and Hunter.
But no doubt Trump is waiting for the FBI or AG Barr to charge Joe Biden with something before the election to help make Trump win. That would be the game changer for the election. But time is running out. If credible evidence shows no crimes were committed, it's not going to be possible to charge anybody with anything.
Last edited by StillwaterTownie; 10-23-2020 at 12:04 PM..
So you strongly believe Trump for saying the coronavirus is going away? The people sick from the virus may not feel like voting for Trump.
The debate wasn't a game changer but many people in the news industry, especially on the left, think Biden came out swinging that night and Trump never recovered.
Unless Trump voters aren't showing up in the polls Biden will win the election. But a lot of voters are sick and tired of Trump's chaos and political insanity and want to trade him for Biden, knowing if he screws up, they can do the same thing to him by voting him or Harris out in 2024.
I think the Biden/Harris ticket is just too weak to topple Trump in 2020.
Had the Democrats ran a sharp, new to politics, bright star, Trump would've lost. But the Democrats ran a very old, "50 years in the swamp" politician with baggage. And Biden picked a VP who is not that likable.
In addition, the Democrats are hoping Biden beats Trump based on "hate for Trump" and "COVID-19 deaths."
Not a realistic winning strategy, and just a bad overall strategy for a win.
Trump will get all of his states he won in 2016, and add a couple more--Nevada, New Hampshire or Minnesota.
Virtually any poll that lists the sample population and methodology, and then properly adjusted according to over/under sampling different sub-groups.
Early vote totals weighed against both 2016 totals and voter and party registration numbers for 2020
Gallup's "are you better off" poll, which has a pretty solid historical pattern.
the upcoming GDP totals, which also have a pretty solid electoral pattern.
Observational data that suggests enthusiasm for either candidate.
Net gain/loss relative to each other in party registration and compared to 2016, especially in counties where Trump already won and those where the total was close.
share of votes and total votes in the primaries of each party, balanced up against every historical pattern.
That's off the top of my head and most obvious.
Trump under polling is also one of those "we all know how it works, we all know it only got worse, but you can't really prove it" kinda things. The cultural narrative has gone so crazy since 2016 that admitting you like Trump out loud is just short of a hate crime anymore, and certainly more dangerous to life, liberty, family and career in 2020 than it was in 2016. I think polling totally whiffs on that population, and polls artificially skew harder left than just merely oversampling Democrats makes them.
Where I base that theory is whenever the person and/or their opinion can remain anonymous or not directly an endorsement of Trump, the numbers are staggering compared to his opponent and history. The Gallup poll and all the impromptu parades/rallies that keep popping up are my two big indicators of that. The Gallup poll asked if you are better off, and that is a non-offensive, pleasant question with an answer that cannot get you d0xxed/destroyed/ruined, and Trump beat 1984 Reagan by 12 points on that poll. And while the media does fawn over Biden, and so does Hollywood, there hasn't been a spontaneous Biden rally of 50k people just pop up anywhere, much less multiple places around America, like every other day. Those rallies allow people to support Trump while remaining largely anonymous.
Also, there was a march of almost entirely all black people supporting Trump just this week in DC. Downtown DC, flags, signs, singing songs of praise to Trump. Seen any footage or heard of it until now? Now ask yourself...can you remember another Republican that had a spontaneous march of almost all black people, in any number, singing their praises and waving the flags?
That primary vote thing is also a big enthusiasm indicator. Running essentially unopposed, as most incumbents do, his 2020 primary vote totals beat Obama's 2012 numbers. People didn't have to vote for either guy, but they did, in big numbers to show their support, and Trump's numbers topped Obama's.
Lots and lots of indicators outside CNN/MSDNC/NYT/WaPo's propaganda ministry that portend good news for Trump. Just have to see them is all.
I'm sure President Trump will win Florida, and that alone will be a great sign of things to come, because only 3 men have won the General Election without Florida since 1924.
Joe Biden will be in historically deep trouble if President Trump wins Florida.
I know there are plenty of ways for Biden to win without Florida, but historically it rarely happens without Florida.
ahhh…. but we aren't talking about your hometown... we are talking about Pennsylvania. And Oil matters there.... and the measure of the state between Biden and Trump is razor thin.... THAT is the thing that matters.
Older folks in Pennsylvania are much more concerned about saving their Medicare and Social Security by voting for Biden.
Older folks in Pennsylvania are much more concerned about saving their Medicare and Social Security by voting for Biden.
PA comes down to one thing - does the entirety of the state that isn't urban Pittsburgh and Philly outweigh those two urban centers?
Inside the service industry centric downtown Pittsburgh and Philly, the oil/fracking/union thing is meaningless. Literally anywhere else in the state, there's nothing that means more. Which part of the state has more people willing to vote for that which is important to them?
Virtually any poll that lists the sample population and methodology, and then properly adjusted according to over/under sampling different sub-groups.
Early vote totals weighed against both 2016 totals and voter and party registration numbers for 2020
Gallup's "are you better off" poll, which has a pretty solid historical pattern.
the upcoming GDP totals, which also have a pretty solid electoral pattern.
Observational data that suggests enthusiasm for either candidate.
Net gain/loss relative to each other in party registration and compared to 2016, especially in counties where Trump already won and those where the total was close.
share of votes and total votes in the primaries of each party, balanced up against every historical pattern.
That's off the top of my head and most obvious.
Trump under polling is also one of those "we all know how it works, we all know it only got worse, but you can't really prove it" kinda things. The cultural narrative has gone so crazy since 2016 that admitting you like Trump out loud is just short of a hate crime anymore, and certainly more dangerous to life, liberty, family and career in 2020 than it was in 2016. I think polling totally whiffs on that population, and polls artificially skew harder left than just merely oversampling Democrats makes them.
Where I base that theory is whenever the person and/or their opinion can remain anonymous or not directly an endorsement of Trump, the numbers are staggering compared to his opponent and history. The Gallup poll and all the impromptu parades/rallies that keep popping up are my two big indicators of that. The Gallup poll asked if you are better off, and that is a non-offensive, pleasant question with an answer that cannot get you d0xxed/destroyed/ruined, and Trump beat 1984 Reagan by 12 points on that poll. And while the media does fawn over Biden, and so does Hollywood, there hasn't been a spontaneous Biden rally of 50k people just pop up anywhere, much less multiple places around America, like every other day. Those rallies allow people to support Trump while remaining largely anonymous.
Also, there was a march of almost entirely all black people supporting Trump just this week in DC. Downtown DC, flags, signs, singing songs of praise to Trump. Seen any footage or heard of it until now? Now ask yourself...can you remember another Republican that had a spontaneous march of almost all black people, in any number, singing their praises and waving the flags?
That primary vote thing is also a big enthusiasm indicator. Running essentially unopposed, as most incumbents do, his 2020 primary vote totals beat Obama's 2012 numbers. People didn't have to vote for either guy, but they did, in big numbers to show their support, and Trump's numbers topped Obama's.
Lots and lots of indicators outside CNN/MSDNC/NYT/WaPo's propaganda ministry that portend good news for Trump. Just have to see them is all.
Again with the massive rallies. What part of we are in a pandemic is hard to understand. If people are so willingly making themselves vulnerable to catching Covid by attending a Trump rally I think that about sums up his base. Not the brightest bulbs.
I look at plenty of polls that are non-partisan and other than heavily leaning repub polls I see consistent data points across the board favoring Biden.
Again with the massive rallies. What part of we are in a pandemic is hard to understand. If people are so willingly making themselves vulnerable to catching Covid by attending a Trump rally I think that about sums up his base. Not the brightest bulbs.
I look at plenty of polls that are non-partisan and other than heavily leaning repub polls I see consistent data points across the board favoring Biden.
You are a clear partisan. Look at your entirely subjective and insulting analysis of a spontaneous Trump rally. In your worldview, the only reason anyone would support Trump is "because stupid" and a rally during "The *duh duh duh* PANDEMIC!" proves the stupid because reasons!
So you will discard any indicator or analysis that favors Trump or a close election and will much more heavily weigh anything favoring Biden and your preferred outcome.
Again, that makes you like lots of people, so don't get offended. But you're clearly suffering from partisan myopia.
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