Is Nate Silver is over-rated?

[SkyDog77]

Originally Posted by Toxic Waltz

I think at this point he's mostly running a demoralization campaign. He takes poll numbers that are often close and turns them in to wildly lopsided win percentages designed to make it look like the election is already decided and the losing side has no reasonable hope. It's propaganda.

I don’t see how you can hold this position when he and RealClearPolitics are very similar in their estimations.

[bu2]

Originally Posted by uhuru

Nate Silver earned his reputation as a highly respected analyst/pollster after he called the 2008 election accurately. He also was given credit for giving Trump a 30% chance of winning in 2016 while others gave him less than 10% chance.

But what is ignored are his appallingly bad calls and predictions as outlined in the linked article. Here are some excerpts:

“I wonder how much of the Trump Bump is just voters trolling pollsters,” Two Good Reasons Not To Take the Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously — July 16, 2015.

“PREDICTION: Trump won’t be the Republican /nominee.” — Aug. 6, 2015

“Donald Trump is winning the polls and losing the nomination.” — Aug. 11, 2015

“Idea that ‘Trump would win an election today’ also dubious. If election were today, voters would be more informed and news cycle different.” — Dec. 4, 2015

“Trump’s general elex numbers have been terrible since he launched bid. Media barely noticed during 2015 Trumpmania.” — March 29, 2016

“[Idea of Trump being presumptive nominee by mid-May] is delusional. Math doesn’t work.” — April 9, 2016

“Trump has been super unpopular with the November electorate pretty much forever.” — Aug. 16, 2016

“[The] most delusional part of Trump thinking he has a silent majority is how small a fraction of the population he’s even bothering to appeal to.” — Aug. 13, 2016


I am mystified as to how Silver has this status of an oracle of sorts when he has been so wrong ........ also he bragged about his call that Trump had a better chance in 2016 than some guy who said that Hillary had a 99% chance of winning!

https://www.currentaffairs.org/2016/...to-nate-silver

He's an idiot who got one thing right. When he said Trump had a 30% chance he prefaced it with, "I don't want to scare anyone, but...." That tells you he is worthless right there.

[uhuru]

Nate Silver editorializes too much as evidenced in his various pronouncements listed in the OP where he makes statements with complete certainty only to be proven wrong repeatedly.

I think he is now saying that Trump has 11% chance of winning ....... so if he does win, he can and will say he acknowledged that Trump did have a chance of victory.

[Chuckity]

Blah blah blah.

Nate Silver got it right in 2008 & 2012. But who didn't think Obama was going to win? Maybe less so in 2012 - but still, the overwhelming vibe of the country was Obama winning a second term.

It's not like he's a genius. He's a sports guy who got two of the most easiest election predictions correct - and then totally believed his own hype and got screwed in 2016.

He's not a pollster either, btw.

[texan2yankee]

we will see in november if the 'work' of political pollsters, pundits, and aggregators like silver have any validity going forward.

according to silver, trump has a small 10% chance to win in november 2020. according to the polls, biden will win the electoral college easily. the talking head political pundits have all written off trump's chances, too.

again, we will see. if these well paid professionals are wrong again in 2020, the whole industry is toast.