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Good analysis of you enjoy geeking out on this stuff. I posted the summary below, but far more in depth analysis of you follow the link.
PWBM is a nonpartisan, research-based initiative that provides accurate, accessible and transparent economic analysis of public policy’s fiscal impact. Using the project’s research briefs and interactive budget tools enables analysis of legislation while it is drafted. PWBM serves as an honest broker at the intersection of business and public policy providing rigorous analysis without policy advocacy.
Summary: Presidential candidate Joe Biden’s campaign has released a substantial list of policy proposals. PWBM finds that over the 10-year budget window 2021 – 2030, the Biden platform would raise $3.375 trillion in additional tax revenue and increase spending by $5.37 trillion. Including macroeconomic and health effects, by 2050 the Biden platform would decrease the federal debt by 6.1 percent and increase GDP by 0.8 percent relative to current law. Almost 80 percent of the increase in taxes under the Biden tax plan would fall on the top 1 percent of the income distribution.
Key Points
*Over fiscal years 2021 – 2030, the Biden platform would raise $3.375 trillion in new tax revenue while increasing spending by $5.37 trillion.
*Under the Biden tax plan, households with adjusted gross income (AGI) of $400,000 per year or less would not see their taxes increase directly but would see lower investment returns and wages as a result of corporate tax increases. Those with AGI at or below $400,000 would see an average decrease in after-tax income of 0.9 percent under the Biden tax plan, compared to a decrease of 17.7 percent for those with AGI above $400,000 (the top 1.5 percent).
*The largest areas of new net spending are education at $1.9 trillion over ten years and infrastructure and R&D at $1.6 trillion over ten years.
*In total, including macroeconomic and health effects, the Biden platform increases federal debt by 0.1 percent in 2030 before decreasing debt by 1.9 percent in 2040 and 6.1 percent in 2050; GDP decreases by 0.4 percent in 2030, sees no change in 2040, and increases by 0.8 percent in 2050.
I'm not convinced that there will be a significant lower investment return and lower wages with a corporate tax increase. We didn't see a big boost to either of those from the tax cuts. Wages may have gone up -- but they should have as we had 10 years of recovery before COVID.
I'm not convinced that there will be a significant lower investment return and lower wages with a corporate tax increase. We didn't see a big boost to either of those from the tax cuts. Wages may have gone up -- but they should have as we had 10 years of recovery before COVID.
As we all know, Biden’s plan is not the plan that will likely get through the Congress. If it is close to this, it seems fairly positive.
Very slightly more by 2030, positive by 2040 (debt reduction). Notice that's after President Biden's term or terms.
We'll never see this effect.
Unfortunately we, as a country, cannot seem to see the long view fiscally. As soon as things start looking up, a new administration will be along to either increase benefits, foreign aid, or decrease taxes. It's as if we cannot help ourselves to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Very slightly more by 2030, positive by 2040 (debt reduction). Notice that's after President Biden's term or terms.
We'll never see this effect.
Unfortunately we, as a country, cannot seem to see the long view fiscally. As soon as things start looking up, a new administration will be along to either increase benefits, foreign aid, or decrease taxes. It's as if we cannot help ourselves to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
I agree. Remember the Bush tax cuts that evaporated our surplus?
All that said, this does paint the picture of a reasonably responsible budget. If the “sky is falling” crowd takes the time to read the analysis, they may sleep a bit better tonight.
Their analysis of Bernie’s proposal was pretty funny.
Good analysis if you enjoy geeking out on this stuff.
This is not what I enjoy geeking out over. BUT, what I do know, is that the stock market, and indirectly, the economy, prefers a level of stability and predictability as opposed to the utter chaos and "we'll see what happens" policies of the Trump presidency. So yeah, we should be good.
Current analysis: In total, including macroeconomic and health effects, the Biden platform increases federal debt by 0.1 percent in 2030 before decreasing debt by 1.9 percent in 2040 and 6.1 percent in 2050; GDP decreases by 0.4 percent in 2030, sees no change in 2040, and increases by 0.8 percent in 2050.
The backward part you reference is due to increased taxation to pay down debt. This debt was generated because of Trump’s ill timed tax cuts. We have to pay for them now.
Who cares what Ivy League wackos say! Isn't that where Trump went to school?
I do, as this non partisan analysis is what policy makers look at to determine what the impacts of their proposals will been the economy. What method do you suggest we use?
I agree. Remember the Bush tax cuts that evaporated our surplus?
All that said, this does paint the picture of a reasonably responsible budget. If the “sky is falling” crowd takes the time to read the analysis, they may sleep a bit better tonight.
Their analysis of Bernie’s proposal was pretty funny.
You do realize that there was no surplus, right? And do you remember the spending bill of 2009 (signed by Obama) that dramatically increased our debt and added the the slow recovery of the economy?
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