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Same here with the tourists. A mediocre Holiday Inn Express or Hampton Inn a block back from the Gulf can be going for $500/night right now and all I can think is that a lot of people who saved their stimulus checks because there wasn't anything they wanted to spend them on then are now justifying those prices because they're paying with their 'free money'.
VPS airport is allowing 40% more flights than 2019 and both airport and airlines are operating with fewer staff than then so it;'s getting really ugly, especially on Saturday 'condo changeover' day.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 379,000 in February and the unemployment rate was 6.2%.
Dow Jones estimates for were 210,000 new jobs and a headline jobless rate of 6.3%.
Most of the hiring came in the hospitality sector, which saw 355,000 new jobs. Education, construction and mining all saw declines.
The Black unemployment rate jumped to 9.9% from 9.2%.
March:
Quote:
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 916,000 in March, while the unemployment rate declined to 6%.
The job growth was well ahead of Dow Jones estimates for 675,000 and the fastest since August 2020.
Gains were strongest in leisure and hospitality (280,000), while construction soared by 110,000.
April ... well, the prognosticators got fooled ...
Quote:
Hiring was a huge letdown in April, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by a much less than expected 266,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, the Labor Department said.
Dow Jones estimates had been for 1 million new jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.
May ... "We won't be fooled again!"
Quote:
Nonfarm payrolls increased 559,000 in May, below the 671,000 estimate.
The unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, slightly better than expected and below April’s 6.1%.
Hospitality again led job creation, with 292,000 new positions.
It was actually 505,000 (CPS) and that would have happened no matter what since governors ended locked downs.
If you don't understand the difference between a governor and a president, you might wanna seriously consider giving your high school diploma back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eyebee Teepee
and yes, I know there were revisions.
The revisions are for the seasonally adjusted mythical figures, not the hard data.
The hard data says there were 505,000 new hires and then that number is run through the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program that weights the data anyway you want to make it say anything you want.
You can download the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software program from the US Census Bureau for free.
The US Census Bureau uses it to determine the "federal" poverty level which is the weighted average of the poverty levels of the 48 States (Alaska and Hawai'i are statistical outliers.)
It's weighted, because the poverty levels of a few States is 4x higher than other States.
Since the seasonally adjusted is 850,000, then in this instance you have:
850,000 - 505,000 = 345,000 fantasy workers who don't exist, don't pay FICA/HI taxes and don't pay federal income taxes.
It works the other way, too.
The seasonally adjusted report says 230,000 new hires, when actually there were 570,000 new hires.
We can look to May 2019 when the government reported 75,000 seasonally adjusted "jobs created" as a classic textbook example.
Never mind that Social Security collected these amounts in FICA payroll tax revenues:
$79,888,911,673 May
$64,407,000,000 April
-------------------
$15,481,911,673
The FICA payroll tax is 12.4% for both employer and employee.
That means $15,481,911,673 was collected from $124,854,126,395 in wages.
Right? $124,854,126,395 * 12.4% = $15,481,911,673
So, 75,000 new workers earned $1,664,721 each in the month of May.
That works out to an hourly wage of $10,404/hour.
That's one hell of an hourly wage and those same people who are dumb enough to believe only 75,000 jobs were added in May also claim wages aren't rising.
So, sometimes seasonally adjusted workers are real tax-paying workers and sometimes they're not.
I'm showing you how to fact-check the government through alternative government sources.
Tell ya what I'll do....I'll come back in August and we'll look at FICA and HI tax revenues, because if you have 850,000 new/returning hires, then SSA should collect a large chunk.
But, if there really was only 505,000 new/returning hires, then those revenues will be lower.
Great different approaches to analyzing all the data.
For me --- I think all of that is useful to a better understanding of what the numbers mean but for 'comparison' to previous months, situations.....the simplified versions work.
Is the economy taking off -- no...and it shouldn't and wouldn't no mater what or who is going on.
This pandemic seriously impacted many sectors.
I know that two of my sons who work in different areas of technology -- one out west -- one in the north east.......both had their companies give up their office space and re-evaluate their office situation. Both have substantially reduced their office footprint -- even as they return to work...that has a huge trickle down impact throughout the country. Metro areas are going to see major reduction in the short term of leases, etc. That will impact the businesses around the offices that provide everything from food and bev services to other services related to the office.
It is going to take time for full adjustments to return to what we perceive as normal.
Many of our communities removed mask mandates, social distancing requirements months ago. There wasn't a sudden surge to normalcy.
Funnily enough my one son works for a California software company head quartered in San Fransisco -- they are more aggr4essive in trying to get folks back into an office for some time each week than my other son who works for a bigger corporation that would be perceived as being more 'conservative' in policy.
As long as we have positive job growth and the market holds we should be okay. Prices should come down as supply chains are returned to some kind of normalcy.
The winter storm that shut down Texas and other states in February, the hack of the pipeline, the hack of the meat processing plant all aggravated the situation.
I do think the messaging on the delta variant is important. It seems that the message seems to be -- get vaccinated....much better than we need to shut down.
I wonder if Trump was pushing vaccinations if people would feel differently (serious question).
The Biden administration continues to make progress in steering the American economy towards recovery. Notably, early data shows that states that ended the pandemic-era jobless benefits early did not push more unemployed people to resume their job search. From the article:
Although many economists rejected claims that pandemic-era jobless benefits are keeping people comfortably at home and away from work, various states have cut the special programs ahead of the September deadline.
But that didn't move the needle much in June. Early data from states that ended those programs shows that didn't push workers to resume their job search, said Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, in emailed comments.
These numbers are encouraging. Having a competent administration at the helm is paying off, for all Americans. It is nice to celebrate July 4th with this in mind. Happy birthday America!
Knuckle-head Biden,...leads the charge to take away 'millions of jobs in 2020'----then claims he's creating Jobs in 2021~
A bigger story than the over performing jobs number is wage growth. Wages are rising for regular folks the fastest since the 1980s as the pandemic effects force employers to open their wallets and offer more attractive wages and benefits to lure and retain labor.
"However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9 percent from 5.8 percent in May, the data showed, and the jobless rate for Black workers rose a tenth of a point to 9.2 percent."
"However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.9 percent from 5.8 percent in May, the data showed, and the jobless rate for Black workers rose a tenth of a point to 9.2 percent."
A higher unemployment rate means that more people are actively looking for work. I often have asked when people states that there are many sitting on the pandemic UEI. I guess now many aren't.
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