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I doubt that the Court will overturn Roe. More likely, they will revisit the 'viability' question. Roe, of course, adopted the following: absolute right to an abortion in first trimester; state must show some compelling reason to prohibit in second trimester; state has compelling interest to prohibit in third trimester.
As I have noted before, Roe itself created a lot of judicial law concerning privacy rights, especially in health care. To wholly 'overrule' Roe would lead to all sorts of new lawsuits to determine the status of various laws since that time concerning privacy.
Further, I doubt that the Court can, or would, issue a ruling that states that abortion, for any reason, may not be performed in the United States.
Anyway, I can see the Court adopting a new time-table. Perhaps not the six-week period proposed by various states (i.e., no abortion after six weeks), but surely 10 weeks or so.
I think it’s highly unlikely it will be overturned next year. The farthest the court could conceivably go with the current case is allowing bans after 15 weeks, and I think it’s questionable if they will even go that far.
Correct. I think a rollback to a 15 week limit is likely to be a SC outcome, though. No outright ban is on the docket. The rollback will restore Roe v Wade close to its original context, btw.
If Roe v Wade is overturned Republicans will be the dog that caught the car. It would be disastrous for the party. Besides older conservative diehards most people consider it to be a long settled issue.
It's highly likely Roe v Wade gets overturned next summer. The SCOTUS has agreed to revisit it and I think it's very unlikely they uphold it. This is the main reason Trump was elected and the entire reason the SCOTUS nominees were pushed through the way they were so there's no question that they are going to seize on this opportunity.
Question is, could it drive liberal turnout in the midterms and dampen the GOP's chance to retake Congress? There are going to be a lot of angry women once they realize that a theocratic state now has control over their reproductive organs.
Agreed. As someone who grew up an Evangelical, I can affirm the almost obsessive nature of their viewpoints on abortion and other social issues. These rigid viewpoints are especially pervasive amongst older Evangelicals and is a major reason that many young people are leaving the church in droves.
If abortion is indeed overturned, it would be largely unpopular with the general populace and I think it will the straw to break the camel's back for the GOP. Otherwise, I think the GOP may have another decade or two left as a competitive political party. This is of course, unless they dump the Evangelicals in lieu of a more inclusive worldview. I'm not holding my breath.
There are a lot of people right now who don't believe it could happen, but having grown up in the Baptist church and having watched the way things have unfolded over the past five years or so, I'd say it's all but inevitable. I think it will bring out a lot of people to vote against the GOP who otherwise don't vote, especially in a midterm.
On the flipside, it's likely that a constitutional amendment will be needed at the federal level to protect legal abortion. The prospect of that will energize the GOP in much the same way "court packing" does.
I tend to agree. Roe v. Wade is such long-settled law and has always been so heated an issue it makes predicting the consequences of a reversal very hard to do.
For sure, it's one that has driven the Republicans, but has seldom resulted in victories for them outside the GOP stronghold states.
But the GOP is a minority party now, and an aging party. Other big Republican issues that were immensely popular in their members have proven to be so popular that reversing them became a real danger to the party.
The AHA is one. Trump ran on reversing Obamacare in 2016, and was one of the first things he tackled once elected. But when the bill reached the Senate, the ACA was so well-established and so popular that Mitch tabled the bill and never brought it to a vote on the floor.
So even with a total majority in Congress and the White House, reversing ACA failed, and no one wants to even go there again. The only thing that's going to happen to it now is revision, something all sides want.
The hard lesson Trump is now learning is: Once confirmed, Supreme Court justices have no obligation to those who nominated them.
They become independent and don't have to obey any President's wishes, so few do, and only when the Justice agrees with legal challenge, not the President or anyone who brought the challenge to the court.
Roe v. Wade demands some new finding, evidence, or something that has not been brought to SCOTUS before to be reversed. But it was established as law in 1973 by a 7-2 decision, 48 years ago, and was heard only after a closely related case, Doe v. Bolton was decided, which bolstered Roe v. Wade.
Dozens of challenges ever since have all failed. The judicial reasoning in Roe v. Wade was so closely considered I think that if this court does anything, it will only be a revision, not a complete reversal.
Narrowing Roe v. Wade to a less-broad law is certainly possible, given the conservatism of this court, but I'm sure it will stand as law. This is most probably the last time it will ever be taken up again by any SCOTUS.
If I was a Republican with some importance, I sure wouldn't want to overturn Roe v. Wade. That would be enough for a Democratic congress to agree to pack the Supreme Court with 4 new members.
Sometimes it's far better to let a sleeping dog lie. This may be one of those times. Packing the court is far easier than un-packing it.
How many millions of people have held their noses and voted for obnoxious Republican candidates such as Trump over the singular issue of abortion? My own mother was one of them Take that issue away and what other cultural division will they be able to exploit that will yield as many votes? Abortion is their stock in trade. Transgenders and bathroom bills don't ignite the same passion.
The generalizers would like to think the Republican Party is an unified as the Democratic Party, but the Republican party is highly fractured and will be even more fractured after the midterms. The generalizers would like to think all Republicans are for overturning Roe v. Wade, forgetting there's pro-abortion Republicans and there's also anti-abortion Democrats.
The generalizers would like to think the Republican Party is an unified as the Democratic Party, but the Republican party is highly fractured and will be even more fractured after the midterms. The generalizers would like to think all Republicans are for overturning Roe v. Wade, forgetting there's pro-abortion Republicans and there's also anti-abortion Democrats.
True but that seems less so than in years past though. The Rs have purged most pro-choice people out of the party in recent years. You still have some pro-choice R voters, hardly any elected R pols though.
I don't think an abortion decision will be a game changer for the midterms. At most the issue goes back to the states. States that already lean left will possibly go a bit further left, red states will become redder, some states will be more competitive. I think the second amendment will be a bigger issue and will bring more Republicans out to vote. The court is set to make a big ruling on that subject next year too. And I highly doubt the economy will hold out till next fall without a major crash. A bad economy will cost the democrats Congress beyond any doubt.
How many millions of people have held their noses and voted for obnoxious Republican candidates such as Trump over the singular issue of abortion? My own mother was one of them Take that issue away and what other cultural division will they be able to exploit that will yield as many votes? Abortion is their stock in trade. Transgenders and bathroom bills don't ignite the same passion.
This. I almost relish the idea of Row v Wade being overturned, and I say that as a progressive liberal, because it's the biggest wedge issue in the right's arsenal. It gets people to the polls year after year, and keeps many of them from even considering ever voting any way but Republican, even when doing so goes against their own interests, because they think they're "saving the babies!"
I guarantee there isn't a single Republican politician who actually wants this to happen no matter how much lip service they give to it. They know what keeps their fundie base coming back election after election.
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