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If you want to know why Biden, the democrats and even auto companies are "pushing" a transition to electric vehicles, you need do nothing else than read what oil drilling companies themselves are saying about the prospects of future oil production in US shale deposits.
Shale deposits have been a boom for US production in the past 10-15 years, but like production from conventional oil fields, you cannot expect it to last forever.
Democrats and liberals around the world - as well as the auto companies themselves - recognize the reality that someday we're going to have to learn to use something other than oil to power our vehicles. Conservatives seem to be stuck in a happy-go-lucky-with-blinders-on mindset that the future can be postponed indefinitely.
An article in the WSJ from last week offered an excellent overview of the reality of the situation. The article was not relying on pronouncements from democrats or policy makers about prospects for US oil production ... but was instead relying on statements from oil drilling companies themselves to demonstrate that the end of the shale boom is in sight.
The end of the boom is in sight for America’s fracking companies.
Less than 3½ years after the shale revolution made the U.S. the world’s largest oil producer, companies in the oil fields of Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota have tapped many of their best wells.
If the largest shale drillers kept their output roughly flat, as they have during the pandemic, many could continue drilling profitable wells for a decade or two, according to a Wall Street Journal review of inventory data and analyses. If they boosted production 30% a year—the pre-pandemic growth rate in the Permian Basin, the country’s biggest oil field—they would run out of prime drilling locations in just a few years . . . .
The article is behind a paywall but here are some highlights:
-- All of the largest shale/fracker drillers acknowledge they cannot raise production growth the way they could early in the boom. Pioneer Natural Resources, for example, is only planning to increase output by 5% a year for the future, whereas during the peak years it was able to raise production by between 19% and 27% per year.
-- Five of the largest shale companies - EOG Resources Inc., Devon Energy Corp. , Diamondback Energy Inc., Continental Resources Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp. - have about a decade or more of profitable well sites at their current drilling pace. If they tried to raise production by 15% a year that inventory would only last about 6 years.
-- The only US shale deposit that still has lots of longer-term development potential is the Permian Basin in west Texas. The Bakken in ND and the Eagle Ford shale in south Texas are already pretty much maxed out.
Instead of blaming democrats, liberals or some nefarious conspiracy for trying to get you to switch to an electric vehicle, you should be blaming ... geology.
There are other large shale deposits elsewhere in the world that have, to date, largely been untapped. However, since those are in other nations, we have no control over whether they get developed or not. And in any case, even if they did get fully developed we would once again have to rely predominantly on oil imports, as we did for some decades before the shale revolution.
Neither of those two articles say the oil there is going to last forever. All they do is say there's been a boom in drilling there, which is not in dispute.
Neither of those two articles say the oil there is going to last forever. All they do is say there's been a boom in drilling there, which is not in dispute.
try reading the part that says "reserves"...at least try to read it
If you want to know why Biden, the democrats and even auto companies are "pushing" a transition to electric vehicles, you need do nothing else than read what oil drilling companies themselves are saying about the prospects of future oil production in US shale deposits.
Shale deposits have been a boom for US production in the past 10-15 years, but like production from conventional oil fields, you cannot expect it to last forever.
Democrats and liberals around the world - as well as the auto companies themselves - recognize the reality that someday we're going to have to learn to use something other than oil to power our vehicles. Conservatives seem to be stuck in a happy-go-lucky-with-blinders-on mindset that the future can be postponed indefinitely.
An article in the WSJ from last week offered an excellent overview of the reality of the situation. The article was not relying on pronouncements from democrats or policy makers about prospects for US oil production ... but was instead relying on statements from oil drilling companies themselves to demonstrate that the end of the shale boom is in sight.
The article is behind a paywall but here are some highlights:
-- All of the largest shale/fracker drillers acknowledge they cannot raise production growth the way they could early in the boom. Pioneer Natural Resources, for example, is only planning to increase output by 5% a year for the future, whereas during the peak years it was able to raise production by between 19% and 27% per year.
-- Five of the largest shale companies - EOG Resources Inc., Devon Energy Corp. , Diamondback Energy Inc., Continental Resources Inc. and Marathon Oil Corp. - have about a decade or more of profitable well sites at their current drilling pace. If they tried to raise production by 15% a year that inventory would only last about 6 years.
-- The only US shale deposit that still has lots of longer-term development potential is the Permian Basin in west Texas. The Bakken in ND and the Eagle Ford shale in south Texas are already pretty much maxed out.
Instead of blaming democrats, liberals or some nefarious conspiracy for trying to get you to switch to an electric vehicle, you should be blaming ... geology.
There are other large shale deposits elsewhere in the world that have, to date, largely been untapped. However, since those are in other nations, we have no control over whether they get developed or not. And in any case, even if they did get fully developed we would once again have to rely predominantly on oil imports, as we did for some decades before the shale revolution.
Geology isn't banning ICE engines telling people they must buy electric vehicles. Governments are.
try reading the part that says "reserves"...at least try to read it
If anyone didn't read it, it was you, because the first article (which is the only one of the two that mentions reserves) simply says that these fields have such-and-such sizes of reserves .... which says nothing about the rate and cost at which they can be produced.
But let's give it a whirl ourselves, shall we? Let's do the Eagle Ford shale ...
Quote:
As of 2011, the Eagle Ford field in Texas produced 750,000 barrels/day, almost all from horizontal wells. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates there are 853 million barrels in undiscovered reserves. Drillers are searching for both oil and natural gas.
750,000 barrels/day is 273,750,000 barrels/year. (750K x 365)
So 853 million barrels in undiscovered reserves represents a whopping ... 3.12 years of production!
So thank you, your own objection illustrates my point perfectly.
If you want to know why Biden, the democrats and even auto companies are "pushing" a transition to electric vehicles, you need do nothing else than read what oil drilling companies themselves are saying about the prospects of future oil production in US shale deposits.
The Biden Administration has created the environment where it is more difficult and costly to produce our own reliable energy.
Nothing more... nothing less. Start there and the Keystone Pipeline.
I'll even be nice. A much more recent analysis of the Eagle Ford shale by the USGS can be found here:
Quote:
The Eagle Ford Group of Texas contains estimated means of 8.5 billion barrels of oil, 66 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 1.9 billion barrels of natural gas liquids, according to a new assessment by the U.S. Geological Survey. This estimate consists of undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in continuous accumulations.
Let's say they can ramp up production to 1 million barrels/day from the Eagle Ford.
That's 365 million barrels over the course of a year.
8.5 billion barrels/365 million barrels = 23.3 years before all those undiscovered reserves are exhausted. Which is consistent with the following excerpt from my article:
Quote:
If the largest shale drillers kept their output roughly flat, as they have during the pandemic, many could continue drilling profitable wells for a decade or two.
So, we have a little over 20 years, more or less, before we've squeezed out what we can from this thing.
What do we do after that?
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All they do is say there's been a boom in drilling there, which is not in dispute.
