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"Much has been made of the fact that China will soon be the world's largest economy. But that laurel is unlikely to last. A recent forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) reveals a new, and for China, disturbing trend in the country's gross domestic product.
A Chinese economy that relies heavily on investment in infrastructure and real estate is approaching its limits, and tighter controls on internet companies and other businesses are slowing productivity growth. In nominal terms, China's economy is expected to overtake the U.S. in 2033, four to five years later than last year's estimate.
But by 2050, the U.S. is expected to turn the tables. With a shrinking and aging population weighing on the country, predictions for China's "17 years of supremacy" look likely to come true."
"Much has been made of the fact that China will soon be the world's largest economy. But that laurel is unlikely to last. A recent forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) reveals a new, and for China, disturbing trend in the country's gross domestic product.
A Chinese economy that relies heavily on investment in infrastructure and real estate is approaching its limits, and tighter controls on internet companies and other businesses are slowing productivity growth. In nominal terms, China's economy is expected to overtake the U.S. in 2033, four to five years later than last year's estimate.
But by 2050, the U.S. is expected to turn the tables. With a shrinking and aging population weighing on the country, predictions for China's "17 years of supremacy" look likely to come true."
China's GDP is calculated using the production method. This means that China's GDP is calculated in terms of the value of goods actually produced, and what goes into GDP is what actually happens and is produced.
The U.S. GDP is calculated using the spending method. This means that America's GDP is not measured in terms of the real value of goods. In America, for example, all real estate is accounted for by rent, which accounts for 7% of GDP, whether it is actually rented out or used by the owner. America's legal system is overrepresented, with lawyers' fees alone amounting to 6% of GDP; The United States also spends 18 percent of its medical expenses; The financial sector accounts for 8.5% of GDP.
In 2021, China's GDP is already 77.5% that of the US, but if China were to use the US spending method, the figure would be at least 20% higher.
"Much has been made of the fact that China will soon be the world's largest economy. But that laurel is unlikely to last. A recent forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) reveals a new, and for China, disturbing trend in the country's gross domestic product.
A Chinese economy that relies heavily on investment in infrastructure and real estate is approaching its limits, and tighter controls on internet companies and other businesses are slowing productivity growth. In nominal terms, China's economy is expected to overtake the U.S. in 2033, four to five years later than last year's estimate.
But by 2050, the U.S. is expected to turn the tables. With a shrinking and aging population weighing on the country, predictions for China's "17 years of supremacy" look likely to come true."
So the trade deficit is going to turn around by then? We won't be enriching China by importing a ton of their cheap products?
What's going to happen in another 25 years when the elderly vastly outnumber the young and governments try to fund all these perpetual welfare programs to support all these people? Will robots be doing all our work by then?
"Much has been made of the fact that China will soon be the world's largest economy. But that laurel is unlikely to last. A recent forecast by the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) reveals a new, and for China, disturbing trend in the country's gross domestic product.
A Chinese economy that relies heavily on investment in infrastructure and real estate is approaching its limits, and tighter controls on internet companies and other businesses are slowing productivity growth. In nominal terms, China's economy is expected to overtake the U.S. in 2033, four to five years later than last year's estimate.
But by 2050, the U.S. is expected to turn the tables. With a shrinking and aging population weighing on the country, predictions for China's "17 years of supremacy" look likely to come true."
Ok...but people have been predicting doom for China since the beginning of time. So, yeah, we'll see.
What's going to happen in another 25 years when the elderly vastly outnumber the young and governments try to fund all these perpetual welfare programs to support all these people? Will robots be doing all our work by then?
Robots will not save the elderly. In fact they might steal their medication.
Democracy will be put to a hard test, because the takers may outnumber the makers for the first time, given elderly vs youth voting rates.
Everyone will have to tighten their belts, the young by paying more taxes and the elderly by taking a retirement haircut. I predict the government will try to screw the young first because young people are naive and don't vote. This will spur young people to opt out of the system. Elderly voters will have limited options because their ability to physically coerce the young will be nil. Eventually a settlement will be reached.
The "golden" years of the elderly will be more like an old copper penny, while the "salad" years of the young will be a couple days old and bought from a fridge at a gas station.
Since the 1980s, some scholars have always been saying China will collapse or stall, but it didn't happen.
BTW, do you know China chose a very conservative method to calculate GDP? .......
Nonsense. China uses its own real estate to inflate the GDP numbers. Everyone knows about the Chinese real estate collapse; there are 50 completely uninhabited cities in China - new, uninhabited cities. The purpose of building these places is to inflate GDP.
Nonsense. China uses its own real estate to inflate the GDP numbers. Everyone knows about the Chinese real estate collapse; there are 50 completely uninhabited cities in China - new, uninhabited cities. The purpose of building these places is to inflate GDP.
The purpose was to to soak up restive surplus labor that would have rioted otherwise.
Usually true. But in the case of fertility rates, the numbers cannot lie.
China's fertility rate will drive a population loss of 50% (700M people) during the next 70 years.
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