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"y'all complaining about gas prices should move to Europe!"
$20B in farm subsidies on $1.7T in food spending. That's 1.1% for the math-challenged.
You are a very astute poster ET on the topic of economics. Your clarity is refreshing. It inspires me to expound...
Inflation can occur when the economy overheats with demand (as Ponderosa accurately claimed earlier here in this thread), however, that is not what we have occurring this time.
Inflation can also occur when supply contracts, and that is what we have this time. We have a shortage of labor most of all, a shortage of computer chips, a shortage of wholesale goods due to supply chain disruptions, a shortage of goods due to increasing energy costs, a shortage of housing due to the shortage of building materials.
Yes, the pent-up consumer demand was released post covid, but that was only recovering towards normal levels, but it was really scarcity that caused this bout of inflation. Shutting down the economy created scarcity, paying workers to stay home created scarcity, telling banks not to lend to energy producers created scarcity, and many other policy decisions here, & abroad.
May I suggest that when the Press Secretary job opens up at the White House you send over your resume. With the spin you tried to put on this you would fit right in.
I don't think I would be going out on too much of a limb by saying anyone paying $1000/month in groceries did not see their costs go up by only $5 month over month. It's more like $30-40. Of course over 6 months of "Month over Month" increase that $30-$40 turns into an additional $200, and there is really no end in sight. Personally, my average trip has gone up about 25%. some of my "core" items like meat or dairy have increased at higher rates.
"Falling Gas Prices"....LOL
Are these the same prices that just happen to still be almost double what they were just a few months ago in many areas? Sorry but I really don't think it is anything worth celebrating when gas prices drop about $0.30/gallon when I am still paying over $2/gallon more than I was a few months ago.
You had four years to be a glass half full person. Your man blew it. Now it is our turn. And while I am at it. I saw quite a few prices dropping in the super market last month. Like pork prices. Pork prices are actually 3% lower than they were a year ago. Google it. Beef is down from highs, too, with specials common. Buy now and put it in the freezer cuz they say it won't last.
And we aren't done with shortages. They are starting to pop up again.
you get it...well played bu2.
I own a company, a middle man company, & scarcity rules the day in the b2b world right now. That ultimately trickles down to the end user consumer retail world. Watch wholesale inflation to see what is to happen next to consumer inflation.
I don't see consumer inflation falling anytime soon, or falling rapidly. Falling gas prices will mask some scarcity in the months ahead, but the fundamental scarcity will persist for months to come.
B2B's are increasing inventories to offset supply chain weakness, but higher carrying costs for higher inventory levels will add to increasing consumer prices, even when supply improves.
You had four years to be a glass half full person. Your man blew it. Now it is our turn. And while I am at it. I saw quite a few prices dropping in the super market last month. Like pork prices. Pork prices are actually 3% lower than they were a year ago. Google it. Beef is down from highs, too, with specials common. Buy now and put it in the freezer cuz they say it won't last.
if beef jumped 37% in the last 15 months but now has dropped slightly, why wouldn't we expect it to continue dropping?
Pork is 3% below an all-time high this time last year. But it's still almost 60% above the 5 year average.
And we aren't done with shortages. They are starting to pop up again.
Indeed they are. I follow drag racing and have several friends that race. Tracks are now having issues finding track prep "glue". I guess it is due to not being able to get one of the chemical compounds from Germany.
Non discretionary expenses (gas, food and utilities) are up 37% from last year. Stop trying to dazzle us with your voodoo math to make your Mr. Potato Head look competent.
Great point! Today's 9.1% inflation, if calculated using the old method, would be 17%. All of this is gov't policy caused. The federal gov't over-reacted to covid, shut down the economy, tried to artificially pump cash through the system via consumer handouts, which caused people to stay home, & not work, which caused scarcity, which drove prices up...all gov't inflicted.
Workers <50 yrs of age w/o a pre-existing conditions should've continued working, while distancing & masking. Gov't should have only sent stimulus to 50-65 yr old workers below median incomes to focus stimulus where it would do the most good, & keep vulnerable workers at home.
The Federal Gov't failed again, as Big Federal Gov't does time & time again. Big Gov't is NOT our friends...they are NOT here to help. They are the problem...shrink gov't by 5%/yr across the board every year for the next 10 yrs, if you want these gov't inflicted economic calamities to end.
You had four years to be a glass half full person. Your man blew it. Now it is our turn. And while I am at it. I saw quite a few prices dropping in the super market last month. Like pork prices. Pork prices are actually 3% lower than they were a year ago. Google it. Beef is down from highs, too, with specials common. Buy now and put it in the freezer cuz they say it won't last.
It's your turn to blow it? Yea well that is something I think we can agree on.
You keep sounding like my dear SO, "Hey look this is on sale for 25% off, we need to get it"
I of course ask "25% off of what"?
Sure there are probably some drops in prices, but it doesn't really help when they are still significantly higher than they were a few months ago.
But I did take you up on your suggestion and looked up a couple of your things.
Pork Futures
July 2021 - $106.21
July 2022 - $114.47
Although I would give you 1/2 credit. While it is still higher than a year ago, the current price is lower than the high of about $140 back in February.
And these are the raw commodity prices before you add in the extra costs of processing and transportation. Which have also increased.
So in your financial expertise, wiping out every single gain for the last 6.5 years in 2 days is hunky-dory. But 8.5 years of gains in 3 days - that would be too much.
I lost money way back in the Oct. 1987 crash, never to return to the market. As Alan Greenspan said in his memoirs, his conclusion: the Stocke market is fickle!
I lost money way back in the Oct. 1987 crash, never to return to the market. As Alan Greenspan said in his memoirs, his conclusion: the Stocke market is fickle!
But high, sell low market timers always end up in that boat.
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Your clarity is refreshing. It inspires me to expound...
