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I would believe this if the elderly were moving out of places like this en masse. There are snowbirds but by and large migration out of the snow belt is driven by younger people starting out new lives. Places like Maine and Vermont are among the most elderly in the country because the older people prefer to stay put.
When younger people move from, say, NY to NC they're mostly moving to the blue cities. I know a bunch of people who have moved from NJ to NC (including all 3 of my sisters) and I can assure you they did not move there to escape the liberalism of NJ, all 3 are democrats who moved to the Raleigh area, and they are still democrats. They moved there either because of job opportunities or (in the case of 1 sister) because she did not like the cold weather in NJ and her other 2 sisters were already there.
Young people rarely move for political reasons. It's either because of the weather, the scenery or some economic reason.
As for Maine and Vermont, yes, there are still lots of people there moving to Florida or South Carolina or somewhere warmer. But since the populations there are so elderly there are still a lot of elderly people remaining there, and there aren't that many young people to move away from there in the first place.
Are those states gaining population growing more conservative or more liberal by that migration?
The 5 states that lost the most from 2020-2022 were:
CA -871k
NY -665k
IL -282k
MA -111k
NJ -108k
None of the states losing population are growing less Democratic.
The 5 states that have gained the most:
FL +622k
TX +475k
NC +213K
AZ +182k
SC +166k
Of the five gaining the most population, Florida is the only one that may be growing more Republican. The R margins in the others have been shrinking in POTUS races.
Most of the population growth in the Sunbelt is not due to relocations from other states, but in the addition of minorities turning 18 joining the voting rolls.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 06-10-2023 at 06:18 PM..
Look at Florida population density versus New York & California. Florida is more densely populated, yet people continue to flock to the free state of Florida. Politics is the key.
Do the same analysis at the county level. Population density (read: house prices) drives people from New York, Los Angeles, the Bay Area, etc to Orlando, Dallas, and Charlotte.
When younger people move from, say, NY to NC they're mostly moving to the blue cities. I know a bunch of people who have moved from NJ to NC (including all 3 of my sisters) and I can assure you they did not move there to escape the liberalism of NJ, all 3 are democrats who moved to the Raleigh area, and they are still democrats. They moved there either because of job opportunities or (in the case of 1 sister) because she did not like the cold weather in NJ and her other 2 sisters were already there.
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I do agree liberal states job opportunities are putrid, and the growth is in the conservative states. I lived near Nashville 17 years, and despite the city being liberal, the state, Thank God, stays solid Red. That is why economically it's been a wonderful state for growth-and, btw, transplants fled liberal non growth region, so most are not dumb enough to transform their next state's winning formula.
Except for California, every one of the losing states is a cold weather state. And every one of the gaining states is a warm weather state. People are moving from cold weather to warmer weather. Since the population is aging, and older people tend to be more sensitive to cold weather, it makes perfect sense.
That makes sense, but then you have some outliers like CA, and also Alabama gained while Louisana lost.
Basic cause and effect. Liberal policies produce negative outcomes leading to unnecessary stress for the ordinary citizen. It is only natural that many citizens respond by reducing their exposure to liberal policies and the stress they cause by moving away from the source. I mean, if you were standing next to a roaring bon fire and your ass got too hot, you'd probably take a few steps away from the fire, am I right?
And I spent about 5 years (too many) in Chicago. I have a basic idea of what people in these places are dealing with. It's not worth the higher salary. It's only money.
I do agree liberal states job opportunities are putrid, and the growth is in the conservative states. I lived near Nashville 17 years, and despite the city being liberal, the state, Thank God, stays solid Red. That is why economically it's been a wonderful state for growth-and, btw, transplants fled liberal non growth region, so most are not dumb enough to transform their next state's winning formula.
And guess what? Most of the job opportunities in Tennessee are in or around blue Nashville. I hope you don't actually believe that young people moving from Illinois are moving to Pulaski.
With regards to Az I think 20%- 25% moving into the Phx metro are from Cal.
Why? My guess COL is the main reason. $130k-150k doesn't get you past 1st base in the more popular areas. And a house? 450k-550k gets you a home in gang-banger central with crap public schools.
But if you can earn the same money you can have a nice life in Az.
And given Az is next door it's not surprising many ex-Californians have decided to move here.
And guess what? Most of the job opportunities in Tennessee are in or around blue Nashville. I hope you don't actually believe that young people moving from Illinois are moving to Pulaski.
Nashville is the star, although Knoxville does ok, and getting VW to East Tn helped that region.
The state is rock solid beautiful red.
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