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yes and no...the recession TECHNICLY ended after 2 non dropping quarters, in 2009 (no thanks to the current admin), but we are heading towards the second harder recession
The question was when the recession will end, and the correct answer to the question is that it already ended in 2009.
I honestly think when we see GDP declines in the range of 6-10% in Q3 and Q4 of this year, and unemployment tops 15%, the stock market will be barreling downward, though I think bottom will be closer to the 3,000 mark. However, anything could happen. I would not be surprised to see Dow 500 in this economy.
In all fairness: using the methodology of the 1930's; our actual unemployment rate is ca. 17%--------not all that far off of the 25% of ca. 1932. Too; quite a few of the illegal aliens and green card holders have left the USA skewing our jobless numbers further down from where they should be (maybe 18-19% out of work?)
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYer75
The recession is technically over. The question should be, when will the good old economic days come back.
I think it will take 5 years at the least.
I second that we will be looking at 2014 or later before things are 'normal' again.
Stock markets can set new highs even in depressions and stock market crashes by themselves do not cause depressions so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the markets. Depressions usually last over 20 years and it looks like there's no way to stop this one.
Stock markets can set new highs even in depressions and stock market crashes by themselves do not cause depressions so I wouldn't pay too much attention to the markets. Depressions usually last over 20 years and it looks like there's no way to stop this one.
Name me one depression/recession that lasted even 10 years let alone 20. Note that the Great Depression was technically over by 1936 but; we slipped into another recession by 1937 that we shot out courtesy of WW II. And historians tend to lump the whole 1929-41 era together as a single economic downturn.
Where I live unemployment is 4.5% the County is at 7.2%. Real estate is selling higher than 3 years ago and businesses are opening up. I know that this is not common but it is a start
Where I live unemployment is 4.5% the County is at 7.2%. Real estate is selling higher than 3 years ago and businesses are opening up. I know that this is not common but it is a start
I don't know, but I believe this current economic situation will be the New Norm. There is not a reset button.
The unemployment rate will go down no matter what. Unemployment Benefits will be exhausted, and those people will stop being counted.
I think we are going to find that people will be bartering more to keep the cost of business down. This may cut tax "Revenues" further, to the point that you will see more mandates, like the upcoming health care debacle that may go into effect.
Life will go on though, maybe just not the way some of us envisioned.
I think that as a nation, I'm going to guess 2012 will be the year that things will start going back to "normal", but there may still be a little higher unemployment than before the 2008 financial crisis. The job market will be the last market to recover and it will be a slow one.
I checked the 2020 and beyond. I've been of this opinion for quite some time, but just recently, one of my financial boards had a recommendation of a book called "The Great Depression - A Diary" by Benjamin Roth.
This guy kept a diary from 1931 to 1978, and his son has published the portions from 1931 to 1941. It is probably one of the best eyewitness accounts I've ever read because it shows the ebb and flow of a great depression. It was more of a middle class point of view in a way, as opposed to the poorest people's stories that you usually read. When the fundamentals have been so out of whack that it derails the economic system to this degree, there can't be a "recovery" in anything under a decade. At least.
I can't even begin to tell you how many times I've read a couple of pages, and honest to god, I completely forget that he is talking about events so long ago. Because they are identical to what is happening today (the nature of the various financial disasters, the resumption briefly of good news that makes everyone think it is over, only to find a year or so later that everything tanked again. And repeat, and repeat, and....etc). Dh is stealing it from me to read every evening, and has noticed the same thing.
We've never read a book so slowly, because of the similarities to today's events. It is hard to realize what is happening when you are in the middle of an event, but this book is giving me great clarity on the nature of what is unfolding now. I got it from amazon, but you could also check at your library - if they don't have it, they might want to order it (our library does that often).
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