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Investment research | Does Pessimism Now Sell As Well As Sex, or Are Investors Just So Starved for the Unconflicted Truth? - (http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/08/10/does-gloom-and-doom-sell-as-good-as-sex-or-are-investors-just-starved-the-truth/ - broken link) It is well worth the read
"I was quite disappointed in my performance – yes, despite the fact that a 3 year real world return of 225%+ blows the snot out of practically every name brand investor most can think of. The reason why I was upset was because I knew the rally was coming and should have realized that there was a concerted effort to kill alpha (the expertise generated excess return over the broad market return, see ZeroHedge’s Barclays Quant Strategy: “Mispricings In The Market May Be Beginning To Take Root”). Alpha is what I am about, not momentum trading or leveraging beta. I study companies and macro opportunities, not money flows and investment trends, and use these studies to (accurately, in my opinion) take positions and capitalize upon them. Since September of 2007 when I started publishing my blog, I have called the collapse and downfall of well over two dozen companies, and have done so publicly with research disseminated from my site. This is what I consider alpha, for many of these companies and the sectors they hailed from were still being lauded by the sell side as I stamped doom on my reports. As a matter of fact, the companies that I actively took positions against (for the most part) actually collapsed or were rescued by the government (reference the accuracy of BoomBustBlog reports). I even took the liberty of showing subscribers the delta between my opinions and research and that of Sell Side Walls Street (see Blog vs. Brokers, preview and Blog vs Broker, Whom Do You Trust!), wherein Alpha for them is generated by separating their more unwitting clients from their capital!. While this all looked and sounded very good, once the entire investment universe approached a correlation of 70%, stock picking acumen (or at least the positive results of such) went out the window. Despite proper calls on the commercial real estate sector, the regional banks, and the European debt crisis, if the bad stuff starts to move in the same direction as the good stuff all of the tie… Well, you know how that story ends." From the link
Think your money in IRAs is safe? There is a big downside to where we are at. P/E ratios have been higher than where they are now for about 7 years out of the last 100!!! Think about that one where are the stock prices going to go up? or Down? 7/93 down is where it is at for stock prices. This current bubble is going to pop sonner than the last one did. We have crossed the line that more debt makes the economy contract. And QE is trying to drive more debt into the market. We have lost the abilaty to service the debt that we have. That is because we have shipped all of our manufatoring jobs overseas. We are so getting the shaft it isn't even funny.
Last edited by newonecoming2; 08-27-2010 at 12:43 PM..
Investment research | Front Page - Reggie does a recap of his performance todate. It is not looking good for the economy or the stockmarket or real estate.
That is true in part but if we were to get together and get new policies put in place the economic problems that we have could be reversed in a matter of months.
1. print $1T or so and give it to everyone in the US at $1k per month. 3~4 months or so should get the economy booming.
2. Tax the payment of interest on debt. We have way too much debt and we need the creation of new debt to slow down and the existing debt to be retired. Also we need to keep the interest on the national debt from getting too high so taxing the payment of interest on debt will raise the interest rate on privately held debt without raising the interest rate on publicly held debt.
3. require banks to hold a minimum balance with the federal reserve bank. This will be used to soak up the new money being printed so that we don't have hyper inflation.
4. set up a national savings plan in credit unions. Countries with high savings rates tend to have higher exports than imports regardless of rates of pay.
5. Raise the minimum wage to 20$/hr or so. Doing it in steps every 6 months or so will inflate wages and prices to match the inflation in assets that we have had with the real estate boom that we had in the 00's.
We should be able to have a stable economy in a matter of months from the time the first check goes out to everyone and then it is just a matter of keeping the economy growing in a sustainable manner.
Investment research | Front Page - To EVO oir not to EVO that is trhe question I ask of thee. I had to.... Really good stuff but not a clue when the end of the economy as we know it is coming.
Investment research | Front Page - (http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/09/20/the-illinois-pension-system-seems-touchy-regarding-blog-statements-do-they-have-a-right-to-be/ - broken link) Some good reading and cross reading. Tick tick tick....
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Irish Bank Strategy Note
