An interesting debate about Portland's housing prices (sale, real estate)

[Jen54]

dang hymalaia, you sure you aren't related to supernova7????

[hymalaia]

Originally Posted by Jen54

dang hymalaia, you sure you aren't related to supernova7????

no unlike supernova 7 i actually MOVED to portland before I started posting.

[Tesaje]

Originally Posted by hymalaia

no unlike supernova 7 i actually MOVED to portland before I started posting.

I noticed that too. He talked so authoritatively about the place and finally confessed he'd never so much as set foot in the airport before. At least I've spent a few assorted weeks there from time to time.

[Suzer]

I am subscribed to two real estate agents' e-mail listings, since 2006 when my husband and I got married in Portland. I've definitely seen prices drop. We were looking in 300-400K range. Plus houses are staying on the market longer.

[Lillietta]

[Percentage rate dropped to 5.8 yesterday!

[ElenaF]

Ooh, a subject near & dear that I've spent some time researching

Portland did not see a huge speculation bubble in pricing the way that a lot of metros did, so prices don't have as far to fall, but falling they are and will continue as long as prices are falling across the nation.

You can check out what the local realtors are reporting here: http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/Oregon~Portland

The Standard & Poor's Case-Schiller Index, pretty much the defacto yardstick for real estate, shows a rapidly increasing price decline across the board. Robert Schiller, the Yale economics perfessor and grandpappy of the Case-Schiller has been saying since 2005 that the real estate market was gonna bellyflop, and he's now saying that prices will be dropping as much as 50% in many areas.

Other highly respected real estate and economy 'bears' (people like former White House economics advisor Nouriel Roubini for example), who have been trying in vain to warn folks for the past few years and been proven totally right so far, predict that the "price correction" will drop sharply through into spring 2009 and then slope gently downward to a bottom sometime in 2011-2012.

So even though Portland prices are both more reasonable than many metros and more resilient to major changes due to supply/demand forces, prices will nonetheless continue to drop as well.

I'm looking to buy towards the end of winter '08, say around Jan-Feb 09. I figure by then the prices will have plunged steeply simply because that's where the entire market is headed. Sellers will be fairly desperate because of the increasing glut of unsold units (finally realizing they ain't getting a million bucks for their shack), and sales always suck end of winter anyway, so there will be serious bargains and not much more depreciation on the horizon.

When it's back to being cheaper to buy than to rent, that's when the smart money buys.

[Tesaje]

Interesting post, thanks. I have read that the market is softest in the middle of the country and both coasts are not as bad. Don't know how true it is or how specifically Portland is affected.

[fojo]

Originally Posted by ElenaF

Ooh, a subject near & dear that I've spent some time researching

Portland did not see a huge speculation bubble in pricing the way that a lot of metros did, so prices don't have as far to fall, but falling they are and will continue as long as prices are falling across the nation.

You can check out what the local realtors are reporting here: http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/Oregon~Portland
...

So even though Portland prices are both more reasonable than many metros and more resilient to major changes due to supply/demand forces, prices will nonetheless continue to drop as well.

Could you cite a source that claims prices to be dropping in Portland?

I ask because my own research notes that Portland continues to appreciate.

And the link you included has Realtors claiming the same:

Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice - Local Market Conditions

"Days On Market has stretched out to 50-63 (depending on what area of Portland)....but appreciation is still pounding away at a steady 1.8%-9.8% (depending on which part of Portland) over the last 12 months....must be the envy of the nation with appreciation like this during all the bad national news."

Realty Times - Real Estate News and Advice - Local Market Conditions (http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrcond/Oregon~Portland~salvadordelcid - broken link)

"Despite the slowdown, home sales have not dipped over the year.

Year-to-date, the average sales price of a Portland home is $342,600. At this time in 2006, the average sales price was $322,400.

Year-to-date, the median sales price of a Portland home is $290,000. At this time 2006, the median sales price was $270,000."

[ElenaF]

Here's a fast overview snapshot:

Portland, OR Real Estate on Yahoo! Real Estate - Homes, MLS, Mortgage Rates & more

Like I said, not dropping as dramatically as elsewhere, but still following the downward trend.

Also, look around - you see "price reduced" signs everywhere now, that's the new realtor mantra. Those are prices that do not yet reflect on the sales figures simply because the properties have not yet sold. Sales figures and trends are not "real-time", they are delayed for months.

And realtors always put a sunny spin on every number regardless of reality

[fojo]

Originally Posted by ElenaF

Here's a fast overview snapshot:

Portland, OR Real Estate on Yahoo! Real Estate - Homes, MLS, Mortgage Rates & more

Like I said, not dropping as dramatically as elsewhere, but still following the downward trend.

Also, look around - you see "price reduced" signs everywhere now, that's the new realtor mantra. Those are prices that do not yet reflect on the sales figures simply because the properties have not yet sold. Sales figures and trends are not "real-time", they are delayed for months.

And realtors always put a sunny spin on every number regardless of reality

Hmm... the downward trend on that link appears to be over the last 2 months, which is an extremely short period of time, but it does exist. If you do believe that "Sales figures and trends are not "real-time", they are delayed for months." then looking at the last two months for the current housing trend may be a bit dubious.

If you look back to winter of 2006 there is a similar dip in prices. Historically, in the PNW, house prices are lower during the winter than the summer, and common belief is that it's due to the weather.

When comparing Oct. 07 to Oct 06, median house sales are up. Now I won't speculate on what the future will hold, but claiming that Portland's housing is generally declining based on the August->October span ignores historical trends for the region.

As for "Price Reduced" signs, they're certainly there. It's not 2005 anymore, for sure.

And lastly, though Zillow.com tracks recently sold homes, the graph shown is of "Market Value", which I take to be that website's estimate of a home's value. Zillow.com is a rather unscientific resource, where any user is allowed to "claim" a house and provide unverified information on a house's structural improvements, etc. It's similar to Wikipedia's setup and is probably as trustworthy for content.