Buying a house in Portland (and the future of Portland and Beaverton city finance)

[skiffrace]

Ronpdx, thanks for an interesting thread. If you "want to be sure that in 20 years there would not be any surprise in the city finance" this raises questions beyond 2013 rates of taxation and states of finance. Now you're looking at questions regarding the resilience of Portland, Beaverton, and the surrounding areas in the face of an evolving, much wider economy. I share these concerns about the future of our economy, and they are also attracting me to specific areas in and around Portland.

The average US homeowner sells after 7 years.
In 7 years you will be {unemployed, divorced, bald, 30 lbs heavier, recovering from first heart attack, moved to different city\state, if you really unlucky: terminally sick or dead}

In conclusion, this thread displays the characteristics of an animal that in is know as "neither fish nor fowl".
Analysis paralysis? Or "One word. Plastics."

"Those who know, don't talk, and those who talk, don't know"

OP: too young to understand any of this, but Google is your friend. And in 7, or 10, or 15 years, the rest will start to dawn on you...

[(*)]

Originally Posted by skiffrace

"Those who know, don't talk, and those who talk, don't know"

Hi skiffrace. Our friend ronpdx is concerned not only about present conditions, which any online search can address, but also conditions twenty years into the future. This involves speculation, and no one can predict the future with any certainty. What scientists of various disciplines can do though is create computer models that give us a guide to potential future scenarios. Economists, climatologists, geologists, the list goes on. The potential futures provided by these models all vary as differing criteria are used and subsequently tweaked. Some pundits will point to one model or the other as "proof" of their point of view or business agenda, but these computer models, economic and otherwise, can never be anything more than a guide.

One thing we do know with certainty: economically recoverable reserves of the petroleum that propelled the industrial revolution has peaked globally (USA in 1972, global in 2005), is now in a global plateau phase, and will shortly begin to decline. This means that economies like ours that are highly reliant on petroleum will find themselves under enormous pressure when that fuel becomes more scarce, and due to normal supply and demand, becomes more expensive. Consider the impact to our economy when the price of gasoline spiked to $5 a gallon several years ago... now imagine what will happen when it hits $6. And $7.

Models are no longer asking "if," now the question is "when." Because so many variables go into determining "when" it makes sense for us to begin making sensible choices now. This way the transition to our new economy is made slowly and less expensively over years, rather than abruptly and at great cost in the face of a crisis.

There are many sources for further information; three I would recommend are 1) New Economics Foundation ( new economics foundation ), 2) Post Carbon Institute ( Post Carbon Institute | Leading the transition to a resilient world ), and Transition United States ( About Us | Transition US ).

[The Cactus Leaguer]

The answer to your question is to go with zip code 97229 - Washington County, unincorporated city, and currently "Portland" on the mailing label. The demographics are good and would seem to be a good bet from a fiscal responsibility standpoint. My guess is that it will either stay unincorporated or they will form their own city rather than connect with the city of Beaverton or the city of Portland.