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Old 10-13-2015, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Portland, OR
8,802 posts, read 8,899,643 times
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Employers retreat as Oregon suffers first hiring setback in 3 years | OregonLive.com

Yet I still have to ask, how is housing so robust when the employment picture is, at best, stagnant?
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Old 10-13-2015, 11:41 AM
 
166 posts, read 133,402 times
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This doesn't surprise me one bit, this city is headed for a recession and is about to see a housing bubble burst in the next year. That is what they get for not focusing on trying to bring jobs here instead of wasting money on useless things.
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Old 10-13-2015, 12:14 PM
 
1,376 posts, read 1,313,583 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
Employers retreat as Oregon suffers first hiring setback in 3 years | OregonLive.com

Yet I still have to ask, how is housing so robust when the employment picture is, at best, stagnant?
Well, it was for the whole state--what was the stats just for Portland and the metro? Also a lot of seasonal jobs get cut in the fall after the summer tourist season slows down in a lot of places. So it's sort of indicative of a slowing economy, though maybe not that bad overall considering the other gains this year.

Even if there is a longer term slowdown in job growth, it takes a second for housing to catch up considering the time it takes to go through the home purchase/mortgage process.
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Old 10-13-2015, 12:17 PM
 
4,059 posts, read 5,621,284 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
Yet I still have to ask, how is housing so robust when the employment picture is, at best, stagnant?
Combination of factors, including speculation, relatively loose lending, low interest rates, etc.

But the primary driver is almost certainly population growth vs. available stock. The metro added somewhere around 35,000 people just from 2013 to 2014.

Edit - the better question is 'why do people keep moving here?'
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Old 10-13-2015, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Syracuse, New York
3,121 posts, read 3,096,975 times
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Whenever the Asian economy sneezes, Oregon's economy catches a cold..
Also, the Orange Line finally opened, wrapping up a lot of construction jobs.

I also have a theory that Oregonians, due to their larger than the average state's percentage of federal deductions for both state income tax and mortgage payments, are heavily dependent on federal tax refunds. When the money from that runs out and Oregonians still have large state withholdings to deal with, the state economy stumbles along until the next refund season.
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Old 10-13-2015, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Portland, Oregon
10,990 posts, read 20,570,522 times
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The tax refund two-step thought baffles me. The Orange Line construction work has effectively been finished for months, construction on large housing projects is proceeding full steam ahead. I agree with others who opine that a good part of the numbers is due to seasonal employment: students working summer jobs, tourist related. I would love to see the numbers parsed out by county.
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Old 10-13-2015, 09:29 PM
 
Location: Syracuse, New York
3,121 posts, read 3,096,975 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nell Plotts View Post
The tax refund two-step thought baffles me. The Orange Line construction work has effectively been finished for months, construction on large housing projects is proceeding full steam ahead. I agree with others who opine that a good part of the numbers is due to seasonal employment: students working summer jobs, tourist related. I would love to see the numbers parsed out by county.
I have a lot of out of the box theories.

The good thing is the state labor force participation went up. That will make some people happy.
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Old 10-13-2015, 10:43 PM
 
149 posts, read 181,318 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
Employers retreat as Oregon suffers first hiring setback in 3 years | OregonLive.com

Yet I still have to ask, how is housing so robust when the employment picture is, at best, stagnant?
Housing is so robust because of the equity locusts concentrating on Portland and pumping it as a "hot market."

They call them "equity locusts" for a reason, because they group together in a swarm and use the power of the swarm to affect supply and demand.

That's the reason it's cheaper to rent in Portland than to buy.

10 places where renting a home beats buying - Page 7 - CBS News

And just like they show up in swarms, when they get spooked, they leave in swarms to.
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Old 10-14-2015, 01:46 AM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,069 posts, read 7,241,915 times
Reputation: 17146
One negative month in 3 years does not make a trend. We need to see what happens in the next few months to make a determination.
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Old 10-14-2015, 06:56 AM
 
166 posts, read 133,402 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
One negative month in 3 years does not make a trend. We need to see what happens in the next few months to make a determination.
I am betting more of the same, Portland and Oregon is headed for a recession.
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