Why is unemployment so high? (house, stats, activity)

[mobilemindstationaryreality]

Originally Posted by Minervah

My sister's friend lives in New York and is a successful author. Yet when she talks about me living in Portland she gets all starry-eyed and tells me (usually via e-mail) what a wonderful, magical place this is. We somehow have the reputation of being all that and a bag of chips. Yet knowing her as well as I do I know if she came here the bubble would burst.
Not that Portland is a bad place but the expectations are unreal. I guess many people in New York think of Portland as the opposite of everything they don't like about their city. Yet I know more New Yorkers who move here and then move back there after a year or so.

I think I was this person once. I grew up in the region and always wanted to move to the city proper. Guess I'm kind of a native. Been here in Portland for a while now and that urge is pretty much gone. The things I used to see in Portland don't exist anymore. It's kind of unfortunate but I think it happens to a lot of people. I've been applying for jobs all over the region without any luck but luckily I can fall back consistent temp. work.

[Pfhtex]

As timely as today's headlines:

Metro-area's jobless jump outpaces the nation - OregonLive.com

[Bideshi]

Much of the unemployment is related to construction. The housing bubble caused an employment bubble and that has now burst.

[subsound]

Originally Posted by Bideshi

Much of the unemployment is related to construction. The housing bubble caused an employment bubble and that has now burst.

Very true, but I think the question is being asked why is unemployment 12.4% while Denver is 7.5% and Seattle is 7.1%. Portland doesn't have the same issues that places like Detroit or California have.

[sayulita]

Subsound - if you're in Portland, grab a copy of today's Oregonian. It has a front page article explaining the reasons for our high unemployment rate. Or check out the OregonLive link posted above by Pfhtex.

[subsound]

Originally Posted by sayulita

Subsound - if you're in Portland, grab a copy of today's Oregonian. It has a front page article explaining the reasons for our high unemployment rate. Or check out the OregonLive link posted above by Pfhtex.

It was very interesting, I caught the front page this morning and had to run to a meeting before reading it all. I think it's a larger and more complex picture then just the economic piece, but it provides great business analysis on how things are being affected.

[Leisesturm]

Portland's unemployment is high because unlike many other places Portland never developed an information economy. Millions of people in NYC, NJ, CT, CA, DC and many other states make tons of money pushing paper all day. Portland is a logging town and it has never really gotten over the downturn in that industry. The presence of Intel, Tektronix, Genentech notwithstanding, Portland Metro is not a techno hub. It is no Silicon Valley nor is it a "Wall Street". Even so, it must be said that the main reason that the unemployment rate has hit crisis levels all across the country is because business finally got control of the labor market in a major way when they were finally allowed to recruit for labor outside of the continental U.S. and simultaneously move high tech, financial and manufacturing jobs overseas yet retain their corporate identities as American companies. IMO this will not be reversed and thus there will never be an end to the "recession". There will never be a lower unemployment rate than what it is at present. They will simply come up with a new way of calculating the number so that the true extent of things can only be guessed at but not trully assesed. Kind of like the way it is at present. It is probably more accurate to add 10% to any unemployment statistic that you read or hear. There will be a "Class of 2009" graduating right about now and they will not be counted in the unemployment figures ever. Millions of new immigrants will enter the country this year and they too will not be counted. It isn't really neccessary to have low or zero unemployment for the business sector to do very well. In fact, the higher the unemployment rate, the better it is for their bottom line. Angry yet?

H

[ca_north]

Originally Posted by looopson

This has probably been previously asked, but does anyone know why unemployment is so freakin' high in Oregon? I was discussing it with someone the other day and we couldn't come to a conclusion.

Here's a broad theory shared by steady-state economists:

Traditional economics is based on endless population growth and constant increases in consumption of natural resources. This growth has been needed to pay off interest on loan debt, and also because people have a twisted expectation that the world "must" get more crowded all the time. Economic growth feeds population growth and vice versa. There has been an illusion that wealth can be infinite and independent of physical resources. It's an impossible ideology to sustain on a finite planet, but people persist in believing it because it generates money for awhile. Many generations can get by until population density vs. resources reaches a critical juncture.

The current (global) economic crisis could be a long-needed collapse of that cornucopian myth. It's forcing people to live as if the planet is actually finite, which it is. Frugality in daily life will have to replace endless dollar gains on computer spreadsheets. There are too many paper-pushers in relation to actual material wealth.

Finite oil has given people an illusion of much greater plenitude than actually exists. The modern "information economy" cannot sustain endless growth either. Something real and physical needs to be behind wealth, as in the old days of barter. The money system has become overcomplicated and far removed from what's really keeping people alive (nature).

Extractive industries that counted on endless land development, i.e. homes and timber, are rightfully being scaled down in the Portland area. The whole idea that a city's population must grow indefinitely is sick. Even "smart growth" only works for so long, and is analogous to packing in tumor cells more tightly. It creates congested living conditions and greater exposure to unpleasant neighbors. Balance between people and nature (growth cessation) is the best bet for long-term survival.

Oregon's Republican governor Tom McCall understood natural limits and established Portland's urban growth boundary in the 70's. But the growthmania of today's Republicans has destroyed intelligent conservatism and replaced it with money lust. Many farmers are now engaged in a backlash because they want their farmland to equal the cash value of city land. Money-obsessed people don't make sustainable decisions because money is a flawed contrivance.

In short, life isn't fair and we need to get away from a debt-based economy that demands endless money growth. There are too many people trying to share the same finite wealth, which inevitably leads to unemployment. As per capita physical resources shrink, this is no longer a cyclic phenomenon. It's hitting Portland harder because of legal restrictions on land development. Painful in the short term but wise for the future.

Once the population is stable, job competition will be more a matter of natural attrition as older workers retire. The current Ponzi scheme of endless recruiting gains is doomed to hit a finite wall.

Dropping the idea that population growth is "natural" is the best hope for economic recovery and stability. It starts with people all over the world voluntarily limiting their family size. Man has to respect limits just like any other animal.

[Minervah]

IMO this will not be reversed and thus there will never be an end to the "recession". There will never be a lower unemployment rate than what it is at present.

I completely agree with this. When I arrived here in the late 70's from Chicago, I was severely chastised for taking away a job from an Oregonian. When I was laid off in the 80's it took over 6 months for me to find a new job. There just weren't that many employers hiring. In the 90's the company I worked for put a tiny ad in the classifieds of the Oregonian. The first day we had I think over 50 responses. Each day the ad appeared in the paper, the number of responses got higher and higher.

That is why I am relocating in a couple of years. I do not believe Oregon's job situation will ever improve but will continue to get worse. We constantly seem to lose out whenever we are being considered by any good-size company as a place to relocate if we get considered at all. And businesses that have relocated elsewhere are not coming back.

It's my perception of things here. There will always be the fortunate individual who will be in the right time at the right place and be able to score a job but that doesn't speak for the hundreds of people who send in resumes for months and don't even get a nibble. And from the state of my own job along with the horror stories of others, even those who obtain jobs are paid very low wages while being expected to do many tasks and are treated badly.

Again I am going to say there are exceptions to everything and until someone takes the gamble they won't know if they will be the lucky ones to get a good job at good pay while being treated like a human being. If anyone wants to take that chance and move here, they need to know what they may be getting into and have a good back up plan.

[Leisesturm]

Originally Posted by ca_north

Man has to respect limits just like any other animal.

And we do and we will. What makes you think that animals have some quality of growth assessment that mankind lacks? Any creature will multiply exponentially, limited only by food supply, predators and disease. Mankind has no predators and we have industrialized our food supply but disease remains an unrelenting, inefficient force for population control.

I share your dismay that thus far mankind is unwilling and unable to self govern population and thus millions suffer the ravages of disease and regional starvation but I don't see any of that changing anytime soon, if ever.

H