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It was inevitable. While the rest of the country has been suffering for over 2 years with the declines it is just now really starting to have an effect here. We along with a handful of other cities in particularly unique situations have been shielded. So really it was inevitable.
This whole housing sells mess is really over due to start receding and heading in the right direction. So it is what it is. To Buyers now is the time and to Sellers hold on to what you've got until the market improves.
Just be glad we're here in the still oh So HOTT Triangle.
It was inevitable. While the rest of the country has been suffering for over 2 years with the declines it is just now really starting to have an effect here. We along with a handful of other cities in particularly unique situations have been shielded. So really it was inevitable.
This whole housing sells mess is really over due to start receding and heading in the right direction. So it is what it is. To Buyers now is the time and to Sellers hold on to what you've got until the market improves.
Just be glad we're here in the still oh So HOTT Triangle.
Most analysts believe that housing bear markets in housing take 5-10 years to correct. I don't know if many sellers are prepared to wait that long.
I would concur for buyers in it for the long run that now is the time for good interest rates. For cash rich buyers, I would say that sitting on the fence and renting for a few years would be advisable since a mortgage wouldn't be necessary and interest rates are irrelevant for them.
Having sold and bought here in the Triangle area in the last 90 days, I can say the following with reasonable confidence.
Buyers are in the driver's seat. They know it. As a group they are more demanding than ever. The sale of our home was more difficult after we went to contract than I EVER imagined it would be-our agent (one of the most high profile female agents in the area, rhymes with "Party") told me she had never seen a more difficult buyer.
A home with any potential objection, however small, needs to be priced below market. It's just too easy in the buyer's mind to keep looking with all the inventory out there. We listed our home in May, when there were either side of 14,000 homes listed in the Triangle MLS. As of this morning there were over 16,900 homes listed-that's over 20% more inventory and it's December, typically a time where there is less on the market. You have more competition than there has ever been in the area.
In the 60 days since the house we sold went under contract, NOT ONE other home in our old development has sold-there are 55 homes in the neighborhood for sale. Our home sold because it was a good deal-we lowered it over 10% from the original listing price. We still came away with a very nice profit, but we had to let go of the notion that we were going to get more than the same home sold for last year.
Many sellers have not adjusted their prices to a level where there will be interest. There is a house in our old neighborhood with pretty much the same floorplan as the one we sold. It has been on the market since April without an offer. Their current price is still almost $60,000 higher than what we sold for, and they are shocked that they haven't sold yet. Pride and bad advice from their agent have gotten in the way.
Financial analysts and even the realtors association in MA are calling for a recovery here, but agree that it will be a long, slow one--about 5+ years to regain the lost value.
Sales down 26.5% in October after 24% drop in September
newsobserver.com | Housing slump hits home (http://www.newsobserver.com/business/nc/story/809227.html - broken link)
Thoughts?
Couple of the statements in the article contradict supply/demand logic IMO.
i.e. Sale prices continue to grow, 5.6% increase year over year. Yet sales are down year over year and supply is up year over year. How does that support a continued price increase? Or has price not caught up with market conditions in the triangle?
Per the article overall area sales are down 4% year over year from last year. Not exactly a busted bubble in sales volume. Building starts down 6.5% year over year since last year. Not exactly cause to sell the power saws and levels. Maybe instead of the builders going out and leasing the next large white pickup truck they may want to buy out the lease and keep the older truck for a few years to let this pick up again.
All the housing data being passed along at the national and local level is more confusing than helpful IMO. One does not need to see lots of data to say their household cost are increasing faster than their incomes. That is true for most everyone.
If your retired you health care is up double digits while your investments maybe up single digits and your SS Cola is up an anemic rate.
If your working at or below the 6 figure salary level ALL your cost are up from health care to energy to food. We are carrying the full load and bailing out the foreclosure mess may just break more of us.
People at the 7 figure and over salaries are seeing net worth decreases but not really affected yet by out of pocket expense rises.
Bottom line, if you have to sell now, get the best price you can and move on. If you have to buy than get the best price and buy. Holding out on either side of the equation IMO is more harmful than helpful.
Couple of the statements in the article contradict supply/demand logic IMO.
i.e. Sale prices continue to grow, 5.6% increase year over year. Yet sales are down year over year and supply is up year over year. How does that support a continued price increase? Or has price not caught up with market conditions in the triangle?
Per the article overall area sales are down 4% year over year from last year. Not exactly a busted bubble in sales volume. Building starts down 6.5% year over year since last year. Not exactly cause to sell the power saws and levels. Maybe instead of the builders going out and leasing the next large white pickup truck they may want to buy out the lease and keep the older truck for a few years to let this pick up again.
All the housing data being passed along at the national and local level is more confusing than helpful IMO. One does not need to see lots of data to say their household cost are increasing faster than their incomes. That is true for most everyone.
If your retired you health care is up double digits while your investments maybe up single digits and your SS Cola is up an anemic rate.
If your working at or below the 6 figure salary level ALL your cost are up from health care to energy to food. We are carrying the full load and bailing out the foreclosure mess may just break more of us.
People at the 7 figure and over salaries are seeing net worth decreases but not really affected yet by out of pocket expense rises.
Bottom line, if you have to sell now, get the best price you can and move on. If you have to buy than get the best price and buy. Holding out on either side of the equation IMO is more harmful than helpful.
My thought on the sales price increase was that we're folding up prices rises with last years price rise. Prices are actually down on a more recent scale, like during the past 3-6 months. Prices are usually the last to fall because many living here probably don't have to move so soon and are just holding out as long as possible. Sooner or later, one of two things will happen: they will either take the house off the market, or accept a drastically lower price if the conditions require it. That will throw off comps a lot. Of course, comps can get skewed with closing cost credits and other freebies that builders present to not p*ss off previous buyers.
Couple of the statements in the article contradict supply/demand logic IMO.
i.e. Sale prices continue to grow, 5.6% increase year over year. Yet sales are down year over year and supply is up year over year. How does that support a continued price increase? Or has price not caught up with market conditions in the triangle?
Average selling prices measures what buyers can afford or are willing to spend, and not always how much an average house is worth. So, for example, since rates are a bit lower buyers can spend a bit more and move up to a slightly bigger house than they would have. That bigger house might be listed for less than last month's sales, but since today's buyer bought slightly more than the previous month's buyer, the average goes up. It doesn't say much about the price of a given house - other measures do (price / sq ft, matched sales data, etc). The closest region I've seen measured using these stats is Charlotte, which just dipped negative in real dollars this past month - along with every other metro region covered by that survey.
The other way to look at it is that as others have mentioned, when demand drops only the good stuff is going to sell. Sellers can be stubborn, so until the owners of less desirable properties lower their price to get a sale, average prices can stay relatively steady for quite a while.
Average selling prices measures what buyers can afford or are willing to spend, and not always how much an average house is worth. So, for example, since rates are a bit lower buyers can spend a bit more and move up to a slightly bigger house than they would have. That bigger house might be listed for less than last month's sales, but since today's buyer bought slightly more than the previous month's buyer, the average goes up. It doesn't say much about the price of a given house - other measures do (price / sq ft, matched sales data, etc). The closest region I've seen measured using these stats is Charlotte, which just dipped negative in real dollars this past month - along with every other metro region covered by that survey.
The other way to look at it is that as others have mentioned, when demand drops only the good stuff is going to sell. Sellers can be stubborn, so until the owners of less desirable properties lower their price to get a sale, average prices can stay relatively steady for quite a while.
Only the good stuff sells and it gets more per sq ft so price can go up while sales go down. Happening a lot elsewhere. Will eventually catch up but location location will sell before the train track lot (no offense if you live near the railroad). In fact the sales rate for top homes may go down 10% while others decline 50%. That will skew prices up.
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Yup
