WRAL: Report: Raleigh will be No. 3 hottest housing market, prices to soar 24% (Chapel Hill: apartment complexes, rentals)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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Japan has no population growth future at this time.
Japans population is plummeting pretty fast actually. That's the scary thing with Japanese demographics. Once your population looks like Japans its impossible to stop the inevitable rapid decline until it levels off. The US is heading that direction as well with this year having the slowest growth rate in recorded US history. Though I don't think we really start to decline fast until our largest demographic group ( millennials) get older. Japans decline is only accelerating with this year posing its biggest drop yet ( somewhere near 500k). Italy is facing the same situation, they lost the equivalent of the entire city of Florence in one year.
This is all just something to keep in mind. Something I don't think is being accounted for well just yet into our government/urban planning. I truly do think this is the biggest issue for our nation and one we should answer now if we want to remain competitive.
Japans population is plummeting pretty fast actually. That's the scary thing with Japanese demographics. Once your population looks like Japans its impossible to stop the inevitable rapid decline until it levels off. The US is heading that direction as well with this year having the slowest growth rate in recorded US history. Though I don't think we really start to decline fast until our largest demographic group ( millennials) get older. Japans decline is only accelerating with this year posing its biggest drop yet ( somewhere near 500k). Italy is facing the same situation, they lost the equivalent of the entire city of Florence in one year.
This is all just something to keep in mind. Something I don't think is being accounted for well just yet into our government/urban planning. I truly do think this is the biggest issue for our nation and one we should answer now if we want to remain competitive.
Japan's population was the case study we dug in on in the IB Geography class I took for 2 years in HS (I was in HS 97-01). Their Population Pyramid at the time was not conducive in the slightest to population growth (older cohorts were too big a portion of their population). We still don't have the issue in any semblance approaching theirs (in so much that the generations after Millenials aren't massively smaller). Having said that, it will depend largely on what the younger Millenials/GenZ kids do from a fertility rate. I am an early Millenial and have been done producing offspring for 5 years.
The US will more than likely never have a fertility policy akin to those in the East; who are we kidding, we can't even get really inexpensive policies in place; "forcing" people to produce offspring that cost a quarter mil a piece aint ever going to happen. The economic policies here I don't believe are conducive to growth rates we saw in previous decades; my mom was a Boomer and one of nine kids, most families who plan their families aren't producing anything approaching that today.
Japans population is plummeting pretty fast actually. That's the scary thing with Japanese demographics. Once your population looks like Japans its impossible to stop the inevitable rapid decline until it levels off. The US is heading that direction as well with this year having the slowest growth rate in recorded US history. Though I don't think we really start to decline fast until our largest demographic group ( millennials) get older. Japans decline is only accelerating with this year posing its biggest drop yet ( somewhere near 500k). Italy is facing the same situation, they lost the equivalent of the entire city of Florence in one year.
This is all just something to keep in mind. Something I don't think is being accounted for well just yet into our government/urban planning. I truly do think this is the biggest issue for our nation and one we should answer now if we want to remain competitive.
Japan's case is strange. They never fully recovered economically from their 1980's "post Japan Inc." decline.
On another note, China’s former “one child” policy has come back to bite them in the rear. Big time. They have since backtracked but it’s not helping. Seems like the younger generations aren’t interested in having a lot of children.
Per a NYT article in 2020: Re: China’s Looming Crisis: A Shrinking Population
Chinese academics recently delivered a stark warning to the country’s leaders: China is facing its most precipitous decline in population in decades, setting the stage for potential demographic, economic and even political crises in the near future. For years China’s ruling Communist Party implemented a series of policies intended to slow the growth of the world’s most populous nation, including limiting the number of children couples could have to one. The long term effects of those policies mean the country will soon enter an era of “negative growth,” or a contraction in the size of the total population.
The US will go down this same path if the immigration policies continue to restrict inflows to this country.
And, FirstKey Homes, a subsidiary of Cerberus Capital Management has acquired and holds at least 133 properties in Wake County alone in the last 18 months.
I believe strongly that the market is also being floated by a significant influx of money laundering, whether that be Wall Street money or foreign money.
When hundreds of houses are purchased by foreign investor entities, for cash, well above common sense pricing, and then offered for rent at below reasonable ROI, I have to think resale value is secondary to laundering funds.
This money laundering has been going on in the San Francisco Bay Area and places like Vancouver for at least a decade. It’s alive and well here!
For better or worse, there are ways municipalities can and do legally restrict growth. And after living a town that's been notorious for doing so over the years, I think there are those that would be quite satisfied that the result is people choosing another town as their goal is to, well, limit growth. So it's certainly been working for them.
I can't say I've noticed people cutting through to be an issue. Seems like there are better ways for most commuters to go past. That said, there have been more noteworthy consequences like a lack of housing options, particularly affordable ones, and a limited tax base which has meant relatively high property taxes for homeowners.
well that and the lack of commercial space that drives rents up for those small businesses. Possibly/probably.
I wonder what Orange and CH/C spend on schools as compared to Wake vis a vis those higher property taxes. let's see...
This money laundering has been going on in the San Francisco Bay Area and places like Vancouver for at least a decade. It’s alive and well here!
Wouldn’t be surprised if there are tons of Chinese investors over there. I mean your money isn’t necessarily safe in China so might as well invest overseas
I believe strongly that the market is also being floated by a significant influx of money laundering, whether that be Wall Street money or foreign money.
When hundreds of houses are purchased by foreign investor entities, for cash, well above common sense pricing, and then offered for rent at below reasonable ROI, I have to think resale value is secondary to laundering funds.
Most of these home purchase transactions are completely legitimate, and to suggest that the reason for these transactions is to “launder money” is incorrect. In Manhattan, a Russian Oligarch buying a penthouse in a pencil tower is laundering his money. Same with a Columbian / Mexican drug lord buying property in Miami.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping has cracked down on corruption in China generally, and corporate / wealthy individuals specifically in order to “create a more equitable society”. They don’t hesitate to imprison or execute the non-conformists. Not the case with Russia or some other small corrupt countries. Chinese investors are "allowed" to purchase foreign properties and it is clean money.
Companies like First Key Homes / Cerberus Capital Management are legitimate (Cerberus is a hedge fund specializing in “alternative investments”). The Japanese firm YAMASA is also a legitimate company. The problem with this “Corporate / Wall Street / Hedge Fund” activity of scooping up many thousands of homes and converting them to “rental units” is that they are distorting the local markets by locking out otherwise qualified local buyers and contributing to the increase of local home prices artificially (on purpose). Also, this will quickly drive up rent prices (again on purpose). The plan is to maybe overpay initially but to make it up on the sale or rental.
This activity is worrisome, in my opinion, for many reasons. But not illegal.
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