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When we bought our North Raleigh home back in 2006 we were looking in the $150-$165K range. Sub-$200k was a bit low for home shopping even back then but you could find some decent places, didn't have to compete with multiple offers and could even get seller concessions. I feel like these days shopping for anything under $300k means looking at townhomes for the most part. There are always exceptions, but feels like you need to be in the $400k+ and up range to be realistically considering single family homes.
Surely this isn't going to be sustainable long term. My parents bought a house in North Raleigh in 1996 for $110K. I just checked Zillow and it's now valued at $405K. The 1996 price in 2022 dollars with inflation is $210K.
In the mid-90s, there was still plenty of land in N. Raleigh. I-540 didn’t exist. Now land is scarce, it’s built out with stuff to do, an interstate to commute into RTP on, etc. It’s not at all surprising to me that it’s appreciated faster than general inflation given just basic supply and demand. That’s before a pandemic threw things into an even bigger imbalance. New homes in an ever sprawling metro used to keep prices somewhat in check. Lots were relatively cheap. Now we are a certain size, land is harder to come by. Lots are expensive for infill. Teardowns are happening in many areas. It’s just a different phase in our growth than previous decades.
When we bought our North Raleigh home back in 2006 we were looking in the $150-$165K range. Sub-$200k was a bit low for home shopping even back then but you could find some decent places, didn't have to compete with multiple offers and could even get seller concessions. I feel like these days shopping for anything under $300k means looking at townhomes for the most part. There are always exceptions, but feels like you need to be in the $400k+ and up range to be realistically considering single family homes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dire Wolf
In the mid-90s, there was still plenty of land in N. Raleigh. I-540 didn’t exist. Now land is scarce, it’s built out with stuff to do, an interstate to commute into RTP on, etc. It’s not at all surprising to me that it’s appreciated faster than general inflation given just basic supply and demand. That’s before a pandemic threw things into an even bigger imbalance. New homes in an ever sprawling metro used to keep prices somewhat in check. Lots were relatively cheap. Now we are a certain size, land is harder to come by. Lots are expensive for infill. Teardowns are happening in many areas. It’s just a different phase in our growth than previous decades.
Both accurate. The most jarring aspect/comparison though is not between the mid 90s and now or 2006 and now...it's from 2020 and even 2021 to now...
In late spring/summer of 2020 when the market first came back to life after lockdown....the $250k- $300k price range was quite competitive but could still fetch a pretty decent <1800 sq ft "starter home" single family in most of the Triangle area excluding ITB and CHCCS. $400k was a healthy & reasonable budget for a 2500-3000ish sq ft "move up" home for resale and $450k for new-build even in Western Wake.
Spring 2021 when we were all taken aback by the amount of $30k-$40k over list price bids that were going on (and I was actually searching for a home personally)...there were still a few SFH listed in the high $200s/low 300s that would generally end up closing in the $315k-$350k range. I feel fortunate to have "snagged" one of these last year; but it did take 7 tries...and I had several clients in the same boat; most of whom eventually got one; and several of whom got too burnt out and decided to wait.
Now barely a year later; livable SFH pretty much anywhere in Wake, Durham, Orange counties...you're very lucky to close under $400k. North Raleigh/Western Wake/South Durham....more realistically $425k-450k for those. And size-wise you're looking more at the 1200-1500 sq ft range at that price point.
Last edited by TarHeelNick; 04-19-2022 at 09:35 AM..
I think it's more than supply and demand at this point. Even places with lower demand have seen major price increases. Corporations are buying homes like madmen and driving up prices.
I think it's more than supply and demand at this point. Even places with lower demand have seen major price increases. Corporations are buying homes like madmen and driving up prices.
Corporate purchases are a component of "demand."
Too many buyers chasing too many houses.
Both accurate. The most jarring aspect/comparison though is not between the mid 90s and now or 2006 and now...it's from 2020 and even 2021 to now...
In late spring/summer of 2020 when the market first came back to life after lockdown....the $250k- $300k price range was quite competitive but could still fetch a pretty decent <1800 sq ft "starter home" single family in most of the Triangle area excluding ITB and CHCCS. $400k was a healthy & reasonable budget for a 2500-3000ish sq ft "move up" home for resale and $450k for new-build even in Western Wake.
Spring 2021 when we were all taken aback by the amount of $30k-$40k over list price bids that were going on (and I was actually searching for a home personally)...there were still a few SFH listed in the high $200s/low 300s that would generally end up closing in the $315k-$350k range. I feel fortunate to have "snagged" one of these last year; but it did take 7 tries...and I had several clients in the same boat; most of whom eventually got one; and several of whom got too burnt out and decided to wait.
Now barely a year later; livable SFH pretty much anywhere in Wake, Durham, Orange counties...you're very lucky to close under $400k. North Raleigh/Western Wake/South Durham....more realistically $425k-450k for those. And size-wise you're looking more at the 1200-1500 sq ft range at that price point.
You make a very valid point. In my neighborhood, my home floorplan (based on comps) was going for around $440-460k back in the Spring/summer of 2020. Fast forward two years later I could get a $760k offer in minutes, if not closer to $800k. That's just silly and especially more so in the Triangle area where we're not as constrained by onerous zoning regulations, mountains, wetlands, water, etc.
Last edited by Waterboy526; 04-19-2022 at 11:52 AM..
The gap is narrowing and will continue to do so until "affordability" is no longer a driving factor in our growth.
Originally from SoCal and moved here about 10 years ago. Only housing and gas were cheaper back then, relative to CA and was hoping that our children would be able to buy a house when they got older which they couldn't do on the west coast. Had no idea this place would explode like it has in the past couple years. So now I wonder about their future.. Thinking of buying land while we still can where maybe they can build future homes in 5-10 years.
I think it's more than supply and demand at this point. Even places with lower demand have seen major price increases. Corporations are buying homes like madmen and driving up prices.
Whether it's an individual or a corporate entity buying a home, it's still a factor of supply and demand.
You make a very valid point. In my neighborhood, my home floorplan (based on comps) was going for around $440-460k back in the Spring/summer of 2020. Fast forward two years later I could get a $760k offer in minutes, if not closer to $800k. That's just silly and especially more so in the Triangle area where we're not as constrained by onerous zoning regulations, mountains, wetlands, water, etc.
I have clients (who also are my closest friends) who paid $455k for a new-build in New Hill when they closed last February (went under contract with the builder in Sept 2020). 3000 sq ft, 5 bedrooms + study and loft on .22 acre lot (fairly large for new construction). They sold a very nicely maintained/updated late 90's house in Hope Valley Farms in Durham ( just under 2000 sq ft, 4 br + office, fantastic fenced in yard and a 2 car garage) the same week for $360k. Their new house in New Hill, even as a resale, would EASILY sell for over $700k now. The house they sold in Durham (for which they paid $240k in 2017) would probably get $500k if sold today.
I’m curious to see what kind of an effect the 540 extension will have on those areas lying within a few miles of those entrances/exits in Apex/Cary/HS. I wonder if we’ll see increased appreciation, increased desirability, or both?
I’m asking this question for somewhat selfish reasons, also general curiosity. In STL we lived in the west suburbs and when the new highway extension opened up by us, it sent that part of the metro into a frenzy. Suddenly people were 5-7 mins closer to working areas (depending on time of day). I’m sure it’ll increase the buildout of areas to the E/SE, for those established areas to the N/NW/S, I wonder if they see significant appreciation due to the extension or if it’ll essentially continue to be a “rising tide lifts all ships” kind of situation.
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