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Old 05-22-2022, 11:57 AM
 
Location: Raleigh
852 posts, read 586,406 times
Reputation: 899

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Ya gotta love this from NWS."

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and hail being the primary threats.

What's a body supposed to believe?
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Old 05-22-2022, 04:59 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
6,653 posts, read 5,580,541 times
Reputation: 5527
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corgi Dad View Post
Ya gotta love this from NWS."

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and hail being the primary threats.

What's a body supposed to believe?
https://texasstormchasers.com/scale/

Level 1 = Marginal Risk of Severe Weather (Localized Storms)
Level 2 = Slight Risk of Severe Weather (Scattered Thunderstorms)
Level 3 = Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather (Numerous Severe Thunderstorms)
Level 4 = Moderate Risk of Severe Weather (Storms capable of destructive hail or strong tornadoes)
Level 5 = High Risk of Severe Weather (outbreak of strong tornadoes possible)

So Level 1 = don't sweat it, proceed about your day as usual but you may get a sudden thunderstorm in your area by chance
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Old 05-22-2022, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Raleigh
852 posts, read 586,406 times
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Well, with marginal risk, why does NWS issue such a warning? I know enough to go inside when it's raining; I can WATCH a thunderstorm from my den.
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Old 05-22-2022, 06:10 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
6,653 posts, read 5,580,541 times
Reputation: 5527
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corgi Dad View Post
Well, with marginal risk, why does NWS issue such a warning? I know enough to go inside when it's raining; I can WATCH a thunderstorm from my den.
Because yesterdays level 1/2 storms resulted in hail and a lightning strike that lit a house on fire. 99.99% chance nothing serious happens with a marginal risk but you could always be unlucky.

They provide the data, it’s up to you to decide what to do with it.
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Old 05-22-2022, 06:24 PM
 
Location: Cary, NC
4,303 posts, read 5,983,434 times
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The Hazardous Weather Outlook isn't even a warning. It's just an outlook that's issued at least once a day year-round regardless of the weather conditions. Its primary audience isn't even the general public...it's for emergency folks, government officials, weather spotters, etc. Just a quick way to see if there's anything that should be on their radar (pun intended) over the next week.
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Old 05-22-2022, 06:38 PM
rfb
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
2,594 posts, read 6,352,399 times
Reputation: 2823
When every storm is a concern according to the meteorologists, yet only a tiny percentage ever turns out to be a problem, folks stop listening. I understand that any storm could result in severe weather, but you can't constantly cry wolf and expect people to listen when the wolf actually shows up.
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Old 05-22-2022, 06:50 PM
 
16,414 posts, read 12,487,571 times
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People need to remember that the viewing areas of our local channels cover 20+ counties. It's literally impossible for them to only alert to YOUR weather.
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Old 05-22-2022, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
10,728 posts, read 22,813,762 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dariusxiv View Post
Yes, it's the meteorological version of crying wolf... when it's really time to take heed, no one will pay attention.
Knowing the litigiousness of the world these days, I think the meteorologists would prefer to have people get scared over nothing, than for the to be a sudden tornado that they didn't warn about (and maybe get sued for not warning anybody). If it annoys you, just ignore it, but I for one would rather be safe than sorry, even if it means (like today) not mowing my lawn when it turns out I could have after all.

I'd be very surprised if this were really specific to HERE--probably like that everywhere that gets summer storms.
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Old 05-23-2022, 07:07 AM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
22,665 posts, read 36,764,249 times
Reputation: 19880
Hard as it is to believe there are outdoor events and jobs that may affect other people besides yourself, so knowing how to plan your day when you are in that boat is a necessary thing. I know we are living in a ME ME ME time of history, but think outside the box a lil bit. Just an exampe, as a parent whose kids have played outdoor sports, it's nice when the schools can make a weather decision before you start driving to a game/meet/match some distance away. I'm sure people who work outdoors plan their days around the weather as well.
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Old 05-23-2022, 07:27 AM
 
2,925 posts, read 3,337,486 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twingles View Post
Hard as it is to believe there are outdoor events and jobs that may affect other people besides yourself, so knowing how to plan your day when you are in that boat is a necessary thing. I know we are living in a ME ME ME time of history, but think outside the box a lil bit. Just an exampe, as a parent whose kids have played outdoor sports, it's nice when the schools can make a weather decision before you start driving to a game/meet/match some distance away. I'm sure people who work outdoors plan their days around the weather as well.
Yes!! I will also say that storms here are different than where I grew up. The rainfall is torrential, one storm dumped so much rain so quickly that the storm drain in the street could not handle the volume and overflowed and flooded the front lawn of a couple of homes. I think the volume of the rain combined with clay soil which drains poorly creates flooding issues which could be why we seem to get more warnings. I have also never seen as much hail as I have living here. These are quick moving storms but sometimes they do produce some damage and for schools and people working outdoors, the warning is nice so you can plan accordingly. The last hail storm hit as schools were dismissing. I know some buses were mid route and had to pull over and the district did warn of possible transit/dismissal delays.
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