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It mentioned that part of the reason the Triangle is doing so well is b/c of government. Well, wait until July 1st and at some place sooner when the R.I.Fs take effect b/c budgets are being cut. We'll then see how much government is contributing to this.
You can look at Raleigh-Cary, NC Economy at a Glance and see that government is a bit under 20% of the work force in the area. It, along with the catch all "other services" category are the only two areas where employment went up over the past year.
Doing a rough estimate, every 5% reduction there would add about 1% to the overall unemployment figure, everything else staying constant. What sorts of RIF numbers are people expecting?
Anyway, this report continues to show we're right at the national average. And were #200 best out of 370 metro areas in the US. Again, people thinking that this area is somehow "better than most" have got to quickly come up with a convincing story why unemployment here is going to suddenly get much better sooner than everywhere else.
Again, people thinking that this area is somehow "better than most" have got to quickly come up with a convincing story why unemployment here is going to suddenly get much better sooner than everywhere else.
I'm not one of those people. I saw the piece in the article about government and for the time period the numbers represent, employment in the gov sector appeared to be okay. People think of the gov sector as the one sector in the economy that is most immune to what is happening with the economy, but it isn't.
Knowing what I know....and I want go into too much detail, a number of local governments will have deep cuts that will include R.I.Fs and prolly more R.I.Fs than a number of them thought at first glance. We haven't even discussed what Gov Perdue is going to do in regards to RIFs.
Whew I thought it was 'pulling' 9%. Pushing allows one to exhale....but pulling man, that means all the energy has been pushed out! Learned that in the gym of hard workouts!
One thing I know is it will get better on day...maybe not to-day or tomorrow-day but one day in the future!
One thing I know is it will get better on day...maybe not to-day or tomorrow-day but one day in the future!
Watch it, I don't think optimism is allowed here!
It'd be interesting to see a breakdown on the unemployment - i.e. I wonder what percentage is in the construction industry, tech, pharm, etc. The new home construction slowdown has to really hurt. I also saw some numbers recently that unemployment for college grads was 4% vs. an overall unemployment rate of 7-8% (can't recall what region, maybe nationwide). I found that interesting. What about the unemployment rate for high school dropouts? That has to be astronomical!
Anyhow, I don't wear rose colored glasses but I'm not going to stay in bed all day with the covers pulled over my head either. We all just have to do the best we can and focus on the future - and be glad we don't live in Person County with it's 12.6% unemployment rate!
Unfortunately, it can be human nature to wallow in pity and sorrow, rather than looking for the positive and good signs. There have been so many articles posted here written by people that actually know what they are talking about, stating the reasons why we will bounce back quicker here. If people choose to ignore the foundation we have here, that is their choice. Employment always lags the actual recovery and this is no exception. There are multiple signs already of a recovery and it's just a matter of will our leaders let it happen or will they continue to try to delay it in order to have an opportunity to push their agenda. We shall see. In the meantime, I am very pleased with the Triangle's foundation, the positive signs and that I am one of the 91+% that are employed.
You have to admit Charlton,,,That 8.7% unemployment is a lot different then 5% unemployment that was used to calculate that last forbes article you posted. My how reality and non reality can effect an area. Forbes missed it big and should run a reprint for misleading people..
Sometimes perspective helps to define how good or bad things really are. When I think of the triangle economics perspectives I think in terms of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. We are doing pretty well in relationship to those states. When I think of home prices I think of California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida. We are surely holding our own regarding our home prices. When I think in terms of weather I think in terms of Mississippi, Alabama, and North Dakota. I'll take ours at the moment.
When I think of the Ahhhh places I think in terms of Hawaii and Puerto Rico, so OK we have some work to do but that's why its always nice to get away from home sometimes and get that other perspective we don't always see from home!!
So if this was a positive perspective I am guilty as charged!
Sometimes perspective helps to define how good or bad things really are. When I think of the triangle economics perspectives I think in terms of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York. We are doing pretty well in relationship to those states.
If you're going to compare state by state, NC's unemployment is worse than every state listed except Michigan. You're not going to win many best advertising campaign awards going with "at least we're not quite as bad as Michigan" as your state's recruiting slogan.
If you compare city to city, Raleigh has higher unemployment than places like Ann Arbor, Columbus, Philadelphia, Pittsbirgh, New York City, and many other smaller metro areas in those states. Much like our state, those areas have places which are better and worse than their state average, so it's no fair to cherry pick the best metro in this state to compare against their overall state numbers.
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So if this was a positive perspective I am guilty as charged!
I'm all for being positive if it's warranted. So far, it seems that the optimism from the usual cheerleaders has been misplaced.
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