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As more lookers/unqualified/qualified potential buyers start to come out of the woodwork, this is the time of year where inventory starts to rapidly increase again YOY for most markets (FL is one exception I could think of).
Anyway, with all the new listings your working on/popping up, I'm curious, are the new batch/crop of sellers starting to understand or "get it" about what it takes to sell their home? Are they more realistic then the ones who's homes have been sitting for months not listening to what market forces have been telling them all along?
I know its still early in the season, but I'm curious if reality has set in more so to new sellers or not? Are they finally listening about being priced ahead of the curve or are you finding the same old story?
Location: Danbury CT covering all of Fairfield County
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Yes. I did a CMA last week. The house expired in July for $369,000. The seller has it FSBO for $359,000. She was really confused that I came in around $334,000 because her old realtor didn't show her any of the comps when she listed the house.
As more lookers/unqualified/qualified potential buyers start to come out of the woodwork, this is the time of year where inventory starts to rapidly increase again YOY for most markets (FL is one exception I could think of).
Anyway, with all the new listings your working on/popping up, I'm curious, are the new batch/crop of sellers starting to understand or "get it" about what it takes to sell their home? Are they more realistic then the ones who's homes have been sitting for months not listening to what market forces have been telling them all along?
I know its still early in the season, but I'm curious if reality has set in more so to new sellers or not? Are they finally listening about being priced ahead of the curve or are you finding the same old story?
Just curious....
CJ, I don't know who is being unreasonable in the expectations, the sellers or the buyers.
If one is a buyer then it's easy to say that the seller is unreasonable.
If one is a seller then it's easy to say that the buyer is unreasonable.
So who is correct?
There is an imbalance in the market place today. However...
Does that mean a seller is unreasonable if he doesn't want to accept the below current market value price a buyer is willing to pay simply because there is an imbalance?
Or does that mean that the buyer is unreasonable for not wanting to pay the price the seller is willing to accept?
We all know that market value is really determined by two people, a willing buyer and a willing seller.
It takes both buyer and seller, neither being under pressure, to agree on a price. That is my definition of the true market value. The appraisals and CMA's are supporting vehicles.
The inventory imbalance simply creates an opportunity for a smart buyer to take advantage of a seller who is under pressure to sell. It's the same as when a smart seller was able to take advantage of a buyer who previously felt the uncontrolable urge to bid up the price of a home.
When I relocated to a new brokerage recently, the statistics that I receive from the MLS changed because they are established by the new company and they're different from what I'm accustomed to having. So until I can get back to the statistics that I want to see, I'm not able to follow what I want.
However, in doing some searches, what I'm seeing is many sellers taking their homes off the market. I hope we'll see more of that because it will help to reduce the inventory. When I get the statistics for December and the first two weeks in January I'll post them.
There is a pent up demand for housing, and as I see it, that will continue. In my hard hit Phoenix valley, there is a large inventory, but we still have people moving into the state every day. Some would-be buyers are just freaked out and are waiting to see signs of stabalization before buying. Others are just living the "impossible dream" (from The Man of LaMancha, my all time favorite play) of being able to time the bottom.
I'm getting calls from both buyers and sellers, but I'm working with more buyers than sellers. I market for both, and I'm happy that I get more buyer calls than sellers. The buyers that I'm working with are mostly those who are looking for homes to live in and looking to pay current market value. My last three buyer sales were all the same; just looking to pay current market value. They were not trying to get tomorrow's price today.
There are three types of clients that I won't work with.
The lowballer; because it will waste too much of my time, and because I cannot justify the price. If I can't justify the price, then I will appear to the seller as being a shark. I don't want that reputation. I'm a win/win negotiator and won't change.
A seller who wants to price a home far above the active and sold comps; because it will cost me money and won't sell. I will be blamed for the home not selling.
A seller who wants me to work for a lower fee. That's the quick road to bankruptcy for me. I'll leave those clients to agents that don't know how to develop and operate with a business plan.
I will work with investors to locate wholesale properties, but I won't spend time if they're going to be lowballers to the homes that are listed at today's market value. When I present an offer I need to be able to justify the numbers and be able to negotiate from a position of strength.
A lowballer doesn't need me. They can just fax their offer to the listing agent.
I turned down one seller the other day who wanted me to work for 1%. There are two others that will be putting their home on the market with me within the next two months. I'm on track for my 2008 goal of 20 transactions.
One buyer is looking to buy in approximately 6 months when she expects that her home based business will require more space. She is looking for a real bargain, so I'm watching for a wholesale property that will fit her needs.
Another buyer is wanting to buy for a long term investment and I'm looking for a wholesale property for him.
The current statistics that I get are broken down by area (36 square miles). It doesn't give me the total inventory. Here is what happened in one defined area in Gilbert in December 2007:
263 new Listings average list price $346k
113 went Pending average list price $293k
129 went Sold (closed escrow) average list price $294k
Percent of sale price to list price of homes sold is 93.5%
Average days on market of homes sold is 100 days.
There were 167 expired listings.
There were 137 cancelled listing.
In total, there was a net reduction of 283 listings in this 36 square mile area.
Realize that some of the pendings will not close, and some of the expires will relist, thereby making the net reduction smaller. However, there is a net reduction, and that is good news to me.
Disclosure: I am a dues paying member of the NAR, the AAR, and SEVRAR; therefore, my numbers are not to be trusted.
Bill, I asked you a simple question. I don't need the economics 101 mumbo jumbo. We are not stupid here, we understand there needs to be a buyer and seller.
You're a smart guy, but again, I just wanted to know a simple answer. Are your sellers UNDERSTANDING better that pricing at or above comps will not work? Do they GET IT regarding what's going on?
I mean, everyone was so giddy right after the new year started, so if the answer was "Yes, they understand", I probably would've gotten about 4 or 5 answers already...
If you don't want to answer directly in lamens terms, that's fine. Maybe some others will enlighten us.
Capt Bill...Come on, so many statistics, facts, and figures to support your point of view. What are YOU THINKING? We all know that the goal was to make a GENERAL argument so that the other posters here could tear it apart for NOT having facts to support it!
Gosh!
The "simple" answer is so much easier to dissect and tear apart!
Bill, I asked you a simple question. I don't need the economics 101 mumbo jumbo. We are not stupid here, we understand there needs to be a buyer and seller.
You're a smart guy, but again, I just wanted to know a simple answer. Are your sellers UNDERSTANDING better that pricing at or above comps will not work? Do they GET IT regarding what's going on?
I mean, everyone was so giddy right after the new year started, so if the answer was "Yes, they understand", I probably would've gotten about 4 or 5 answers already...
If you don't want to answer directly in lamens terms, that's fine. Maybe some others will enlighten us.
CJ, my response is for everyone on the forum, not just you. And your question was very ambiguous.
If you don't like my responses and don't want to read and try to decipher the statics that I took my time to get from the highly secret selfish old NAR's propietary MLS reports that I pay for to share with this forum; and choose to call my posts mumbo jumbo, then skip my posts.
But in the simple terms that you request, the year has started out with good momentum for me, and I'm well on my way to meeting my 2008 goals, and so far the information that I see is positive as it pertains to my business. If the year continues in the manner that it started, then I will meet my goals, and possibly exceed them. If you're looking for a negative report, I don't have one
The statistics that I reported were positive for my market. Sales almost equal to the number of new listings, and a net reduction in inventory from expireds and cancellations.
From your posts, and the posts of others, I think you and some others believe that it only takes a buyer to determine market value, which is not correct.
That's why I felt the need to explain for the benefit of other people who read the forum who may not understand, that it takes a willing buyer and a willing seller with neither under pressure to act, to determine the market value of a property, with the comps being a tool to use in helping to bracket a price range that similar homes have sold for and at what price the current competition is listed.
Quote:
I just wanted to know a simple answer. Are your sellers UNDERSTANDING better that pricing at or above comps will not work? Do they GET IT regarding what's going on?
That is not the question you asked! Here is what you asked:
Quote:
I'm curious, are the new batch/crop of sellers starting to understand or "get it" about what it takes to sell their home? Are they more realistic then the ones who's homes have been sitting for months not listening to what market forces have been telling them all along?
That question is more ambiguous. Maybe the sellers who decided to remove their property from the market are the ones being realistic. Maybe they realize the disadvantage of having a large inventory; and realize that buyers are holding off; and that lowballers are out there; so if they don't have to sell, maybe they made the decision to sit and wait for a more balanced market.
I thought maybe someone would be able to look at the current December statistics for an area and have a snapshot of what is happening it that area.
I'm sorry that my response didn't meet with your approval.
Bill, I owe you an apology. Rule 101, read the whole post. I didn't, missing the bottom half.
Time will tell I guess, but some positive momentum/data is always good.
CJ, you're a true gentleman. Apology accepted.
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And your question was very ambiguous. 
