Where does RE go from here?

[JayCT]

Originally Posted by MikeyKid

I don't have access to any real data, but based on blog chatter it just seems like a whole bunch of bottom feeding right now.

I think you need to put what you read in perspective. People who post on blogs are there primarily to complain and they are complaining about their losses. This represents a small part of the population. Even those experts that perdict doom and gloom should be taken with a grain of salt. They are out to sell something be it their book or a program. Yes, people are looking for a bargain but there are less and less of those in our market. right now I could say that in our town of 33,000 there are less than 5 homes I would even consider buying in our very wide price range. Jay

[eric#1]

I take pride in my home, and the level of comfort and Zen I can create through it's paint, quality/feel of improvements, landscaping etc.. I wouldn't put that kind of effort into someone elses place for a month off of rent here or there, or give up the ability to save a needy animal cause my landlord says no, or give up my right to consider the neighbors planning and zoning variances/easements. Between national, state, city rules/regs then add the local covenants and top it off with a lease agreement in an apartment with no land and local zoning you have to follow yet have little influence over I'd feel as free as a turd in a backed-up toilet if I had to rent long term - I suppose if I needed to move and couldn't sell I'd feel differently, but really, people that don't care/ignore the benefits of owning because of a lack of equity, may not have been thinking clearly when they bought with 0 down in a market that had doubled to tripled over in value over the previous 10 yrs. - I know this isn't the case for everyone upside down, but nor is renting the same as owning without the freedom of mobility because one hasn't built equity yet...

[MikeyKid]

Originally Posted by JayCT

I think you need to put what you read in perspective. People who post on blogs are there primarily to complain and they are complaining about their losses. This represents a small part of the population. Even those experts that perdict doom and gloom should be taken with a grain of salt. They are out to sell something be it their book or a program. Yes, people are looking for a bargain but there are less and less of those in our market. right now I could say that in our town of 33,000 there are less than 5 homes I would even consider buying in our very wide price range. Jay

I read some very popular blogs doing my best to mix in MSM "articles". None of them I read are people complaining about RE losses (except if you could CD forums ). HuffingtonPost, ZeroHedge, RE Channel, The Automatic Earth... et al.

I won't fight the hyper local argument because you're dead on nuts in your anecdotal evidence... If you HAVE to buy, you'll be constrained to what's on the market. However, there are almost no compelling absolutes when it comes to residential RE and it being a necessity for "purchase" (read - take on lotsa debt). Hello, renters... I would argue that the inventory may be artificially low in certain areas because people know they can't get their number and REOs are sitting as shadow inventory.

[chet everett]

...it is hard to argue against the "looking back" aspects of news articles / blogs about the real estate bubble. Things were priced too high and those prices have largely come down in a dramatic and rapid fashion.

The factors that I see in most aspects of commercial re, multi- family re, and single family real estate are not real rosy, but neither are they "sky is falling" type things. After all, re is a hard asset, not as portable as gold, but a whole lot less perishable than agricultural commodities. Prices could swing upwards in a pretty swift manner if certain forces / opinion shapers take hold. Yes, one of those forces is probably raw employment, but in many ways the ability of folks to continue to use real estate as a wealth building / preserving tool is still powerful, even for folks of modest incomes. What other kind of asset allows folks to use leverage of literally 100%??? Especially for folks with modest incomes / assets the wealth creation opportunities that are present in real estate are hard to overlook...

I further believe that the massive power of US consumers will remain a force that will not remain dampened for much longer. Americans love bargains, and the rest of the world knows that. It would be great if we had a more risk taking investor class, but the rest of the world, with few exceptions, knows that investments that take advantagemof Americans bargain loving ways generally pay off handsomely. I recently saw articles about several German automakers placing large stakes on the long term viability of making cars in / for Americans, that too helps the overall economic activity in this country...

Intel is just one firm that recently had financial results that really demonstrate the ability of well run US firms to turn lemons into lemonade. There are many competitive advantages that will eventually translate into an even more resilient economy, but like I said, short term there will be little good news that moves "once burned, twice shy" home buyers to get in too deep. Not really a bad thing, though folks that sit on the sidelines while the bargains clear my regret what happens to the cost of money and other factors when the pool warms up.

[lucknow]

Well we sure didn't have a RE bubble here in Canada. Prices just keep on going up. I built a brand new house 3 years ago and I'm just trying to sell it right now. The wierd thing about RE here in Southern Ontario Canada is that RE is still booming. I can't figure it out. We want to move back to St. Catherines On. which is 9 miles from Niagara falls. Even though the city has had a huge loss in jobs since we left there 7 years ago the RE values have gone up 40%. This bugged me so much that I bought a really beautiful house in NF for $200k that would have cost me $260 down the road in St. Kitts. Well my kids will just have to drive that extra 9 miles to take advantage of Granddads free babysitting service. LOL. I'm having a little trouble selling my house here in Kitchener because they are building new homes all over the place. Mines nicer though and at a discount over new. I have over $30k in upgrades and am asking $10k less than a brand new one with no upgrades. I had a couple through tonight and I think I will have an offer tomorrow. I don't dick around when I sell RE. I ask what I need and that's that. I already had an offer for $2k less than asking and I turned it down. the people were shocked and walked but it's their loss because they won't find a better deal.

[mortimer]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Another home we saw that we like had the price lowered
from $335,000 ... we plan on making an offer of $300,000.
All I can say is that this is a great time to buy.

Just a thought/example:

In 2000 you could sell a share of Cisco Systems ( CSCO ) for over $70.
( split adjusted )
-----------------------------------------------------------
Later, in Feb, 2001 you could get it for around $35.
That was a real bargain - a great time to buy.

Later that same year, you could get it for less than $10.
-----------------------------------------------------------
It might suit you to buy right now, but everyone has now found out
that housing prices can crash and the only question is how much?

Many price crashes in history have an initial plunge, a false recovery
or leveling off period ( of denial ), then a final plunge.