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First again and for the last time never said 25% of homes would be foreclosed. It is sad in order to prove a point you have to manipulate words (but is common in this type of environment).
Not sure that you or I (we) have all the facts. If you believe you have all of the facts and can read between the lines you must also be someone who believes this is a perfect time for that family vacation, perfect time to buy a house because the home prices won't go down, you can quit your job and find another one tomorrow, you are willing to pay for a new car, and or that this is a perfect time to invest in the stock market? Maybe you also believe your state is not in financial crisis?
Also, there are 103M total # of occupied households. 69M are owner occupied (67%) (this includes mobile homes and vacation homes). 34M are renters. Now tell me how many of those homes have mortgages (1st and or 2nd ones)? You can't because you and I don't have that info. $1.2M (in just 2010) on average of home owners have lost their homes so that is about 3%. This will no doubt go up as unemployment and foreclosures go hand and hand. Unemployment rates are in the double digits in many states (and are rising, unemployment #'s don't even cover the people who are no longer eligible for benefits).
I don't have to watch a news program or read the paper. I can just look out my front door and see the reality.
Last edited by bayarea-girl; 05-11-2011 at 11:25 PM..
Reason: grammatical errors/forgot to add piece about UE
It will be a long, long time before supply comes into balance with demand. Many of the vacant units will simply be torn down. The incredible thing is that new units are still being built! Builders should go to the tornado ravaged South and rebuild all those destroyed homes instead of building new suburban ghost towns.
And yet, I can show you 3 articles that I recently read that says the opposite!
Go ahead, any time you want. Make sure they specifically address the sales numbers compared to the last decade, though, using data from reliable sources.
Quote:
And...from the looks of what is going on in my office...the "sales" board was full...someone isn't reading the doom and gloom and they are getting some great deals on HOMES that they want to live in.
Can't comment about the marketing your office is doing. Not sure why you're bringing it up now. Of course people are buying houses - they're just not buying a lot less of them than normal.
And are you really saying the Triangle MLS is a source of doom and gloom about real estate? That's a desperation move trying to paint your local RE organization as a bunch of anti-real estate bigots.
Quote:
Like everyone...your perception of what you read is what you believe.
I wasn't talking about feelings, I was talking about facts. Houses are not selling well compared to any time in Raleigh's recent past. There's simply not way to pretend that it's any different - which is why you're playing this "reality is just part of our imagination" game instead of providing sales numbers to back up your claim.
If you were talking about feelings, you should have been more clear in the post I was responding to. I don't doubt that you feel the RE market here is strong - you've told us as much every few months for the past 3 or 4 years. Unfortunately, your feelings haven't lined up with the reality shown in the sales or price data - and because of this, you should be a bit more clear when you're discussing facts and when you're just talking about your feelings.
First again and for the last time never said 25% of homes would be foreclosed. It is sad in order to prove a point you have to manipulate words (but is common in this type of environment).
Not sure that you or I (we) have all the facts. If you believe you have all of the facts and can read between the lines you must also be someone who believes this is a perfect time for that family vacation, perfect time to buy a house because the home prices won't go down, you can quit your job and find another one tomorrow, you are willing to pay for a new car, and or that this is a perfect time to invest in the stock market? Maybe you also believe your state is not in financial crisis?
Also, there are 103M total # of occupied households. 69M are owner occupied (67%) (this includes mobile homes and vacation homes). 34M are renters. Now tell me how many of those homes have mortgages (1st and or 2nd ones)? You can't because you and I don't have that info. $1.2M (in just 2010) on average of home owners have lost their homes so that is about 3%. This will no doubt go up as unemployment and foreclosures go hand and hand. Unemployment rates are in the double digits in many states (and are rising, unemployment #'s don't even cover the people who are no longer eligible for benefits).
I don't have to watch a news program or read the paper. I can just look out my front door and see the reality.
First, my state is in much better financial shape than most. And the fact that someone from California would choose do call ANYONE out on the shape of their own home state's financials is pretty flippin' hyserical.
Second, you're trying to twist the facts to fit your own agenda. And you can't have it both ways - you can't pull homes occupied by renters out of the equation and keep the total number of foreclosures at over 1 million. That's some funny math you're using.
And third, if I would take your numbers at face value (and I won't - see previous paragraph) that would meant that GASP! Brandon was right. You've continued to say that people who believe foreclosures are only at 3% nationwide are in "denial" and "aren't being honest with yourselves" ... and yet, you yourself when looking at the true numbers (and even though you're severly overestimated the end result by not playing fair) can only come up with 3%.
Some excellent foreclosure stats to chew on... Even NAR admits nationwide that almost 40% of all recent transactions were involving some type of distressed property.
I think the biggest issues are the length of time to foreclose and how banks still seem to be avoiding judicial states. All leading to a continued and steady increase in the amount of that well publicized "shadow inventory" and not turning off the strategic defaulters who are living in homes payment free. There is a bunch of those.
No matter what you call it, there is an oversupply of housing.
Chuckity, the only agenda I have is to make smart decisions when it comes down to home purchasing. I have a family like the next guy. Giving examples about my state were merly to give examples about what I know around me (can't talk about IL as I don't live there). But I own properties in two other states so I keep up nationally as well and feel pretty comfortable about commenting on those markets and the other places I am watching. I don't need to twist anything.
Renter's are not owner occupants and you would have to take them out of the equation (same reason you took out vacation homes which are even higher than the # you gave). It would not be good math to include an apartment building in the foreclosure scenario (doesn't make sense and I don't know how many owners own an apartment building). The article I just published has $14M housing units vacant, why wouldn't you exclude them?
By 2012 it is estimated that 25M homes would have been lost to foreclosure since all this mess started. 25 Million Foreclosures before Crisis Ends? | US Loan Auditors What exactly are you trying to say again? Less than 3% of homes would be foreclosed on? I don't think so. Who has an agenda here? Over time the number of seized properties in a 10 year period will be well over 3%.
Last edited by bayarea-girl; 05-12-2011 at 09:21 AM..
Reason: added comment
Bideshi, wonder why developers are still building? Many developments around my area are just sitting vacant. They most likely will turn them into mix-use and or just rent them out?
Chuckity, the only agenda I have is to make smart decisions when it comes down to home purchasing. I have a family like the next guy. Giving examples about my state were merly to give examples about what I know around me (can't talk about IL as I don't live there). But I own properties in two other states so I keep up nationally as well and feel pretty comfortable about commenting on those markets and the other places I am watching. I don't need to twist anything.
Renter's are not owner occupants and you would have to take them out of the equation (same reason you took out vacation homes which are even higher than the # you gave). It would not be good math to include an apartment building in the foreclosure scenario (doesn't make sense and I don't know how many owners own an apartment building). The article I just published has $14M housing units vacant, why wouldn't you exclude them?
By 2012 it is estimated that 25M homes would have been lost to foreclosure since all this mess started. 25 Million Foreclosures before Crisis Ends? | US Loan Auditors What exactly are you trying to say again? Less than 3% of homes would be foreclosed on? I don't think so. Who has an agenda here? Over time the number of seized properties in a 10 year period will be well over 3%.
You're doing it again. Changing & tweaking stats & figures to suit your own agenda.
For example, you do realize that a foreclosure and receiving a foreclosure notice are two different things - right?
And PS ... I don't live in Illinos either. It's a perfect example of why you shouldn't assume things without looking at - and understanding - all the facts. Not just a select few.
Nope you are doing it again. Arguing for the sake of arguing and not backing anything up.
Not tweaking stats and figures. I didn't write the articles. How do you get that I tweaked an article. I do know the difference of seized and foreclosure notices which the articles state. But I guess I tweaked the article.
No one said you live in IL. Where did I assume something? I can only write about what I know and that is what I did. I thought you were able to read between the lines and are an are the expert. If you choose to misinterpet what I am communicating and say you know all the facts it is very difficult to come to any type of understanding. Please point to an article that states we as Americans shouldnt be worried about foreclosures. Please point to the article that states that only 1-3% of homes is what will be lost to foreclosures. Please point to this since you have all the facts.
Again, like I said before we can agree to disagree.
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