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I'm curious why you chose to delete the last part of that quotation. It's almost as though you deliberately left it off to change the meaning to be more in line with your own "forecast".
Because its irrelevant. If you have ever listened to a board meeting, wallstreet guys talk, etc, they end every speech with "this is not a forecast" They can get in trouble or risk loosing their professional licence by appearing to forecast earnings, etc. Its just a legal thing, dont read into it.
OP, thank you for sharing this information. It's sad to watch people continue to say that someone had an agenda just because this person is stating the obvious. The RE market didn't reach it's bottom and anyone thinks otherwise is really in for a big surprise. I know saying that hurts people who are involved in the RE industry, Realtors, Builders, contractors, appraisers, lenders,... etc. but it's a fact. The people who have money are not ready to put their savings into something that will lose 10-20% of it's value by the end of the year. This will not change until the unemployment rates significantly drops and stays at a lower rate for at least a year. People need to build their trust and their savings again before buying. All the people who ended up in foreclosure due to job lose (which are a lot) can't get a loan till their credit is fixed (7 years) so don't hold your breath for the market to go up. If you need to buy something, just buy it, live in it and enjoy. If you are happy renting keep doing it and be happy. As for paying the house down, I don't agree with this idea, people don't stay in their homes for 30 years like what our parents and grandparents did. The avg American move for a job or change in life once every 7 - 10 years. Paying off a house now is the worst advice you can give, you end-up stuck to the biggest investment you have and you can't take the money if you need it. This is my opinion, and we all entitled to one
Here's a much more apples-to-apples graph, but I'm afraid it does not prove the point you were trying to make with nearly as much drama.
Nice chart. Actually, it supports my point. Japan and the USA have so much in common, aging demographics, skyrocketing housing prices, etc. Our government is pursuing the same bailout strategy the Japanese followed, and will likely get the same results. Looking at the chart, as we follow the same path as Japan, it looks like we should reach 2000 housing prices around 2019.
PS. To all the naysayers, what we are talking about in this thread is happening..... right now. Choosing to ignore reality doesn't make it go away.
. Our government is pursuing the same bailout strategy the Japanese followed, and will likely get the same results.
Now that's just hillariously untrue. The US chose a starkly different strategy, based in part from the lessons learned from watching Japan's strategy fumbles.
Now that's just hillariously untrue. The US chose a starkly different strategy, based in part from the lessons learned from watching Japan's strategy fumbles.
Really? Please explain how this 'strategy' different Japan's? What were the lessons learned?
Really? Please explain how this 'strategy' different Japan's? What were the lessons learned?
Is it ok if I let this article from Forbes explain it? I promise not to use misleadingly truncated excerpts.Link
Quote:
Fortunately for U.S. policymakers, they have had the opportunity to study Japan's responses to its bubbles and learn from many mistakes that were made. For instance, the U.S. government provided rapid and nearly unlimited liquidity at the height of the credit crisis. It did its best to help banks recapitalize and offset bad real estate loans so as to avoid zombie status. Like Japanese officials, the U.S. also increased public borrowing, but it did so at a more significant level to help the private sector clear its debts and refocus on a recovery in its business operations. The Federal Reserve also lowered interest rates to close to zero and kept a loose monetary policy in hopes of avoiding errors that Japan made, such as by increasing taxes too soon and sending the economy back into the doldrums.
I am not sure that the present housing market will go ot hat far. just as if we wuite makig most of the new cars that deamd would not realtively cathcup as few cars are produced. no matter what o average 655 become historically homeowenrs and can afforsd it. In time when we recover the deamnd will still be there and we are not building much right now to meet that future demand.
There is a thread entitled "Home prices to drop another 20%?" which was posted yesterday in the Business, Finance, and Investing Forum. It contains a link to an article from Yahoo Finance which I thought was pretty good. Not good news, just a seemingly factual and rational article.
... even the experts they cite do not
claim to be able to predict the future. ...
Experts are still asked to do so and they gladly do.
You can read predictions from Paulson, Bernanke, and a jillion other
"experts" from 2007 saying that everything appears to be just fine.
Any predictions from presidents and congresscritters I always assume to
come from financial and scientific illiterates and automatically dismiss them.
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Thank you OP
