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To th best of my knowledge, nothing has been done to either complex to warrant such drastics changes in pricing.
There is the complete economic 'main frame/web' (per say) to consider. Econometrics is complementary to the principles, laws, and theories, and so forth; for example: the portrait of sales you had given indicates a competitive absorption rate that plays a role in economics -- supply and demand of your complex is then taken into account when considering external forces, such as Manderly noted. It is deeper than a few sentences that make up a paragraph, however. Other key words that you mention; peak, next door, time frame, past sales, etc; it is just the beginning.
If you are noting any peak markets during the years 2008, then there is a good chance there will be significant changes in the market. But, there is always that one buyer that will come along with the right kind of pockets that defy logic. Are you that one buyer? Finance has tightened, which will, and probably has already taken its toll on the market's supply and demand, thus value. the years 2007 -- 2008 are key, as well.
Good stuff, though -- keep posting your gut, opinions, and personal confirmations (if you feel it to be necessary). You will eventually make a good decision, or seek the correct local guidance, by talking it out.
If the present factor is applied appropriately, the role of "recent" past sales, can assist, and/or, play a role in determining "Market Value."
sorry if i wasn't clear, i was referring to older sales, not the sort of sales that a professional would refer to as "Comps".
the way i see it, my goals are not the same as a real estate agent or an appraiser, and therefore i am perfectly fine analyzing the data in ways that suit my needs.
Your thought process is understandable, but blindly assuming that all prices should automatically be lower than they were in 2007, simply because it's not 2007 anymore isn't correct. The only true measure of what something is worth is how much someone will actually pay for it. If there is a buyer out there willing to pay what they're asking (and able to secure the financing at that amount) then they are pricing correctly. Chances are, there isn't such a buyer and they are over-pricing, but you can't know that for sure.
If you don't think it's worth what they're asking don't pay that much, it's as simple as that.
the way i see it, my goals are not the same as a real estate agent or an appraiser, and therefore i am perfectly fine analyzing the data in ways that suit my needs.
I still agree with you prior statement. And, I am agreeable with this particular posting.
Older sales is different from recent sales; overall -- competitive sales is different from similar sales -- similar and competitive sales are different from comparable sales. Thanks for the clarification, when you noted "older sales."
Please don't take my prior posting as being as, "matter of fact." I wanted to add to what you had said, agree with you, and give additional information.
How close is this property to NYC? CT is within the tri-state area of NYC, where many serve as a bedroom community for the folks that work in the city. If you are close enough, then the prices will reflect that, and not by the value of the property itself. The areas around NYC didn't plunge much from the housing crisis, so it won't be the same as the rest of the country, I'm afraid? Good luck!
How close is this property to NYC? CT is within the tri-state area of NYC, where many serve as a bedroom community for the folks that work in the city. If you are close enough, then the prices will reflect that, and not by the value of the property itself. The areas around NYC didn't plunge much from the housing crisis, so it won't be the same as the rest of the country, I'm afraid? Good luck!
+1 one on some local knowledge.... I live and work allover Ct as well. What town is this in???
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