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47 of the top 50 metros ASP dropped by 4%. So while the realtors and sellers here will tell you things are great, the data shows a slowdown. Data not antecdotes and emotions
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well, as one those Realtors that's focused on information and data....
I looked at the Forbes article when you posted it the other day, and let it be; didn't seem that odd that pices may be down in 47 of 50 for April. Here's what it said:
Home prices in April started showing the impact of COVID-19. Forty-seven of the country’s largest 50 metros saw prices drop. Though those drops weren’t in double-digit territory, it’s not encouraging news. Areas with the sharpest declines were Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (-5.7 percent); Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. (-4.5 percent); and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis. (-4.4 percent)
But now I've looked into it further. here's the underlying report from Realtor.com (underlying = what Forbes author talks about)
However, even within the nation’s largest metros, median listing price growth decelerated compared to last month. Listing prices in the largest metros grew by an average of 1.6 percent last year, a deceleration from the 5.7 percent year-over-year gain seen last month. Of the largest 50 metros, now only 30 still saw year-over-year gains in median listing prices, down from 45 last month. Forty-seven of the 50 largest metros saw their year-over-year listing price growth decrease compared to last month. Pittsburgh, PA (+14.4 percent); Memphis, TN-MS-AR (+12.2 percent); and Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD (+9.1 percent); posted the highest year-over-year median list price growth in April. The steepest price declines were seen in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (-5.7 percent); Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA (-4.5 percent); and Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI (-4.4 percent).
It is NOT prices that dropped. It is the INCREASE in prices that went down.
They had been increasing 5.7% year-over-year. In April, they only increased 1.6% on average. There's the 4%.
47 of 50 metros saw lower price increases, not lower prices. 30 of 50 metros saw positive list price growth, 20 of 50 saw actual price declines, the worst 3 of which were cited in the Forbes article.
I read that article too.. Did you see where it said listing are down like almost 50% or something insane? With 50% less supply you'd think prices would be skyrocketing out of control. What's going to happen when 3 months of spring supply hit the market all at once when the economy opens back up? Simple supply and demand.
Yep. Less supply AND prices are lower, basically one month in? This is usually when busy season starts too.
But, we don't know how long this will last, things can turn in a month, I sense that they are honestly. Now certain markets are always gonna do well, but instead of 10 bidders, now there's 3 bidders. I'm sure the realtors here are still kicking arse as are the sellers. I'm just speaking from a macrolevel
My area - things can still go over ask, but a lot of "back on markets" and "price reductions."
I read that article too.. Did you see where it said listing are down like almost 50% or something insane? With 50% less supply you'd think prices would be skyrocketing out of control. What's going to happen when 3 months of spring supply hit the market all at once when the economy opens back up? Simple supply and demand.
New listings for April 2020 vs April 2019 are down but I must be missing that 50% stated in thee Realtor.com article.
Quote:
Regionally, metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest saw the greatest hit to new listings and were also hardest hit by the COVID-19 crisis. Among the largest 50 metros, northeastern metros on average saw new listings drop by 59.4 percent over the year, on average, compared to a decline of 49.5 percent for midwestern metros, 44.1 percent for western metros, and 31.4 percent for southern metros.
it depends on what price category the reduction in listings are in, especially as compared to the median price in that market.
In my market, median price is $290K. Generally, listings are very low in December, so January is a big jump, then March listings are next highest. Listings generally increase every month from January through May. So, we had a "normal" Jan - Mar for new listings this year, and normal sales overall (first half of March was very busy, 2nd half much lighter).
April listings, generally slightly higher than March, were off as follows:
April sales ("end of month under contract", the closest we can come, though surely some had been UC since before March; I expect May to be even lower) were down 15%. In each category above, the sales drops are aligned with the new listing drops....except the drops in new listings exceeds the drops in sales #'s. As such, our months of supply is actually lower than years past.
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The usual spring increase in homes for sale didn't happen. Current inventory is less than even the dead of winter. Still, those homes we have seen around the neighborhood since the quarantine in the $700-800k range have all sold within a few days. We even see "SOLD" signs in the windows of some of the new construction homes in the $1.3 million range. With so many tech workers from Amazon, Microsoft and Boeing engineers around here there are plenty of people still working that want to but homes.
I heard on the news that prices are up 15% in Idaho. If you want to buy, good luck with that because there is very little that is actually for sale.
I had planned to 1031 a house to something closer to my home but I gave up on that idea because there is nothing to buy to replace it with.
So sales will be "down" but not because there are no buyers. It is because there are no sellers. It doesn't mean that prices are down, just that titles are not changing hands.
I heard on the news that prices are up 15% in Idaho. If you want to buy, good luck with that because there is very little that is actually for sale.
I had planned to 1031 a house to something closer to my home but I gave up on that idea because there is nothing to buy to replace it with.
So sales will be "down" but not because there are no buyers. It is because there are no sellers. It doesn't mean that prices are down, just that titles are not changing hands.
It’s probably up in Idaho because it’s “get away from the big bad city” mentality.
New listings for April 2020 vs April 2019 are down but I must be missing that 50% stated in thee Realtor.com article.
it depends on what price category the reduction in listings are in, especially as compared to the median price in that market.
In my market, median price is $290K. Generally, listings are very low in December, so January is a big jump, then March listings are next highest. Listings generally increase every month from January through May. So, we had a "normal" Jan - Mar for new listings this year, and normal sales overall (first half of March was very busy, 2nd half much lighter).
April listings, generally slightly higher than March, were off as follows:
April sales ("end of month under contract", the closest we can come, though surely some had been UC since before March; I expect May to be even lower) were down 15%. In each category above, the sales drops are aligned with the new listing drops....except the drops in new listings exceeds the drops in sales #'s. As such, our months of supply is actually lower than years past.
I think he's talking about this, straight from the article:
According to realtor.com new listings fell almost 45 percent in April compared to last year.
I think he's talking about this, straight from the article:
According to realtor.com new listings fell almost 45 percent in April compared to last year.
Correct...
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