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Well every place is different I know people in San Diego, San Francisco, The East Bay, Houston, Tuscon, Phoenix, Dallas, Naples, Denver, etc., etc. and I know what has transpired with their properties (and it's not 25%).
Historically, real estate prices increase about 3.5% a year on average.
If we follow the investment news we don't need to be a Realtor to know the answer.
Hedge funds, REITs, and Private Equity have been buying up millions of home to put right back in the rental market -- at inflated price levels.
The source of money used to suck up millions of homes was tax cuts in 2003 and 2017, as well as record low interest rates. The unneeded tax cuts dumped massive funds into the hands of upper brackets and the corporate world. That money chased assets in a mania to find investments that offered good returns. It bid up the price of both the stock and housing markets, creating bubbles in both places.
I saw how the tax cuts in 2003 led to a buying panic in many markets by 2005. People stood in lines overnight to assure getting their names on a buyer's contract. Some builders held lottery drawings for the chance to buy a home. In some 'hot' markets, people bought homes early in the craze, held them vacant for a few months and resold them for a hefty profit. It was nuts. I retired in 2003 and left the DC area in 2005, in May, at the height of the frenzy; we had tons of offers on our home, bidding up the price.
I've seen it again in the past few years as a string of unsolicited calls and text messages from home buying firms. Even today these dudes are constantly running ads on TV. The money supply is endless for these people. Plain ordinary people are largely priced out of the home market by this corporate frenzy which is truly a shame -- the "American Dream" has been pre-empted by American Greed and a near total lack of control on the nation's financial affairs.
Private Equity is a major culprit. The Atlantic Magazine had this to say today:
Your article states that institutional lenders owned 574,000 single family homes as of 2022. That equates to a whopping 0.7% of the total single family homes is the U.S.
Smith and his liberal cronies should come up with better ideas.
Historically, real estate prices increase about 3.5% a year on average.
So, they should double every 20 years.
Well what I am telling you is some of our outlying areas doubled (or tripled) since 2019. It's a fact. I'm not going to keep arguing with you. I monitored this continually for the possibility of downsizing. Prices may be starting to soften now due to the current scenario with interest rates.
Every market is different and every time period is different.
I bought a second home, in a rural area, 10 years ago, paid more than the market value because I really wanted it and there was nothing else available that even came close to my criteria. I "knew" it would be hard to sell if I ever wanted to, because the house was "worth" ten times the median household income of that area. Most people there could not afford it, and most outsiders would not want to move there.
During the whole 10 years I was there I had monitored real estate sales and there was virtually no activity in my price range, just as I expected.
Was I wrong about both price and interest from outsiders. I put it on the market at twice what I paid ( and much higher than the "Zillow" estimate ) and it sold in about a week, for cash, at full asking price. The buyer was from out-of-state and just wanted to move to be closer to family ( just as I was selling to move out-of-state to be closer to mine ).
What really made the sale was the very recent availability of high speed internet, so people who could afford it could move away from the big city and work from home.
I have a friend trying to sell her home, in a much more attractive neighborhood than mine, and a much nicer home than mine, and she has not had even a nibble in six months. Hers would be a great investment home, mine would not. Not sure that any of this makes sense.
Well what I am telling you is some of our outlying areas doubled (or tripled) since 2019. It's a fact. I'm not going to keep arguing with you. I monitored this continually for the possibility of downsizing. Prices may be starting to soften now due to the current scenario with interest rates.
Are we talking about outliers or the overall housing market in the United States?
Yeah, I haven't seen home prices triple in the last 4 years in any market I've followed.
But that could be happening in some very specific locations. Those would be extreme outliers.
Are we talking about outliers or the overall housing market in the United States?
Yeah, I haven't seen home prices triple in the last 4 years in any market I've followed.
But that could be happening in some very specific locations. Those would be extreme outliers.
For what it's worth, I've been in west central Florida since the mid-1990s, and in the last 3-4 years property values have nearly doubled in almost every area, some even more. And I'm talking about the current market, too, which hasn't softened much mainly due to lack of inventory.
Are we talking about outliers or the overall housing market in the United States?
Yeah, I haven't seen home prices triple in the last 4 years in any market I've followed.
But that could be happening in some very specific locations. Those would be extreme outliers.
Not outliers. Areas 50 miles from the main metropolitan area. It's a big swath.
Some areas are already expensive and did not double (like where I am at). Mine doubled since 2008/9, not since 2019 like the areas I have been watching about 50 miles out.
Are we talking about outliers or the overall housing market in the United States?
Yeah, I haven't seen home prices triple in the last 4 years in any market I've followed.
But that could be happening in some very specific locations. Those would be extreme outliers.
I would actually suspect the opposite - that a market that's only up 20-25% from the prior cycle is the outlier and the areas that have roughly doubled or better are the norm.
I would actually suspect the opposite - that a market that's only up 20-25% from the prior cycle is the outlier and the areas that have roughly doubled or better are the norm.
It is difficult to find detailed data on home price history for specific markets (neighborhoods) in the United States for every year going back 20+ years.
So, we're left to rely on anecdotal evidence.
That's the problem here.
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