Real estate continues to plummet, prices are decreasing rapidly. Bottom expected in 2010 (percent, value)

[jkasdjk]

probably even until 2011 or 2012

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by jkasdjk

probably even until 2011 or 2012

And I have been charting the median price and watching inventory and all I had to do was wait for you to post.

Now I am convinced, 2012 it is.

Thank you for your insight.

[deno088]

[quote=Mike Peterson;4682679]Hernando County/ North of Tampa/

I never did say my market was strong. I did say it seems to have stabilized.


I based this on the median price this month being within $1000 of the median from 10 months ago.
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Mike, I'm no chartologist but this does not look like stabilization to me.

Hernando County Real Estate Market Activity June 2008 - soldbychris' Blog - REW Blogs : Real Estate Webmasters Blogging Platform

[VMH2507]

Actually the state where I live has seen a 4.3% appreciation this year over 2007. It is the 5th highest 1 year appreciation in US, meaning that there are 4 states that recorded higher than 4.3% appreciation. I can't remember all but TX, Utah, and Mont. were in there

[Brandon Hoffman]

Wow, is this another one of those prognostication threads? I hate I missed it but I'm going to throw my hat in the ring without having read any of it and say....Sept. 12, 2008. Who's with me? I got my crystal ball, you got yours?

[Mike1306]

[quote=deno088;4685708]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Hernando County/ North of Tampa/

I never did say my market was strong. I did say it seems to have stabilized.


I based this on the median price this month being within $1000 of the median from 10 months ago.
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Mike, I'm no chartologist but this does not look like stabilization to me.

Hernando County Real Estate Market Activity June 2008 - soldbychris' Blog - REW Blogs : Real Estate Webmasters Blogging Platform

That agent is no chartologist either.

Here are the numbers for July 08

• Prop - S TOT LP: $21,139,007 HI: $524,900 LO: $45,000 MEDIAN: $155,555 AVG: $177,639 AVG DM: 128
• TOT SP: $19,744,795 HI: $495,000 LO: $40,000 MEDIAN: $150,000 AVG: $165,923
• Status - C TOT LP: $21,139,007 HI: $524,900 LO: $45,000 MEDIAN: $155,555 AVG: $177,639 AVG DM: 128
• TOT SP: $19,744,795 HI: $495,000 LO: $40,000 MEDIAN: $150,000 AVG: $165,923
• Grand Total: TOT LP: $21,139,007 HI: $524,900 LO: $45,000 MEDIAN: $155,555 AVG: $177,639 AVG DM: 128
• TOT SP: $19,744,795 HI: $495,000 LO: $40,000 MEDIAN: $150,000 AVG: $165,923

And here is from Sept 07

• Prop - S TOT LP: $19,115,404 HI: $525,000 LO: $59,900 MEDIAN: $159,600 AVG: $182,051 AVG DM: 108
• TOT SP: $17,855,670 HI: $475,000 LO: $57,000 MEDIAN: $155,000 AVG: $170,054
• Status - C TOT LP: $19,115,404 HI: $525,000 LO: $59,900 MEDIAN: $159,600 AVG: $182,051 AVG DM: 108
• TOT SP: $17,855,670 HI: $475,000 LO: $57,000 MEDIAN: $155,000 AVG: $170,054
• Grand Total: TOT LP: $19,115,404 HI: $525,000 LO: $59,900 MEDIAN: $159,600 AVG: $182,051 AVG DM: 108
• TOT SP: $17,855,670 HI: $475,000 LO: $57,000 MEDIAN: $155,000 AVG: $170,054

These are for SFH closed. As I have stated previously the numbers jump around from month to month by a few thousand but have stayed pretty close to the $150-$155 mark.

Anything else?

[Humanoid]

I based this on the median price this month being within $1000 of the median from 10 months ago.

Tracking the median price only makes sense if the distribution of sales has stayed the same, often in this market that is not the case. Also, the simple fact that inventory is going down may or may not be a positive. It depends why the inventory is going down, is it because more people are buying homes or is it because people are taking their homes off the market for the time being? If the latter then its just shadow inventory that will come on the market again soon.

I'm not trying to say your area isn't stabilizing, I know nothing about it. But the raw data by itself isn't very telling.


Anyhow, the whole "real estate is local" is only partially true. Certainly different markets have different characteristics, but to pretend different real estate markets aren't connected in meaningful ways is wrong. For example as prices get cheaper in California less people are going to move and settle for a house in other state. Additionally, the problems in the credit markets (which is what is causing the collapse in housing) is national and is going to reduce demand all over the nation. The only reason states like California, Nevada etc have seen rapid price declines is the massive foreclosures, areas without a lot of foreclosures have more sticky prices. This doesn't mean they won't decline, but rather they will decline slowly over a period of 5-10 years.

[Mike1306]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Tracking the median price only makes sense if the distribution of sales has stayed the same, often in this market that is not the case. Also, the simple fact that inventory is going down may or may not be a positive. It depends why the inventory is going down, is it because more people are buying homes or is it because people are taking their homes off the market for the time being? If the latter then its just shadow inventory that will come on the market again soon.

I'm not trying to say your area isn't stabilizing, I know nothing about it. But the raw data by itself isn't very telling.


Anyhow, the whole "real estate is local" is only partially true. Certainly different markets have different characteristics, but to pretend different real estate markets aren't connected in meaningful ways is wrong. For example as prices get cheaper in California less people are going to move and settle for a house in other state. Additionally, the problems in the credit markets (which is what is causing the collapse in housing) is national and is going to reduce demand all over the nation. The only reason states like California, Nevada etc have seen rapid price declines is the massive foreclosures, areas without a lot of foreclosures have more sticky prices. This doesn't mean they won't decline, but rather they will decline slowly over a period of 5-10 years.

Inventory is always going off and coming on the market. There is no real way to analyze the reasons for the moves and that is why it has not been done in the past. People can not use the amount of inventory as a basis for saying that is one of the reasons the market is bad and then qualify it with, "Oh, they are just taking it off the market because it did not sell", when someone takes a home off the market. To be a valid factor in your reasoning you need to use the same set of rules in all instances.

The same goes for the distribution of sales. The sales numbers go up or down regardless of who is purchasing. If foreign investors are buying this week it does not make the numbers change as opposed to if Uncle Joe is buying a few homes for investment. Those different subsets of buyers will change the number of homes sold but if we start qualifying the sales with statements such as, "X% of homes were bought by resident aliens so those homes don't count in our data", then what good is the data going down the road. Who chooses what sales count more?

And yes markets are connected to each other but when you have people on here posting, "Prices will drop by 30%" or "We won't hit bottom til 2012", without stating the market they are speaking of and just grouping all markets together and then jump on me, because I am a Realtor, for saying some areas have hit bottom. That is ridiculous, especially when I am giving valid reason for my thinking and they are just picking a number out of a hat.

[Franklyn]

Originally Posted by desertsun41

.......Nearly the whole country is in a pretty bad recession. ...........

The "facts" you brandied about earlier are pretty shaky if you truly believe this county is "in a pretty bad recession". Do you actually comprehend that term? Thought not. Your guesses may be as accurate as the others on this thread, but your "facts" are not. Admit it, man, you're just expressing an opinion here, and are just as capable of being dead wrong as spot on. Only time will tell. Unless, of course, Dan Rather was right about Texas ANG memo typing capabilities.

[desertsun41]

Originally Posted by Franklyn

The "facts" you brandied about earlier are pretty shaky if you truly believe this county is "in a pretty bad recession". Do you actually comprehend that term? Thought not. Your guesses may be as accurate as the others on this thread, but your "facts" are not. Admit it, man, you're just expressing an opinion here, and are just as capable of being dead wrong as spot on. Only time will tell. Unless, of course, Dan Rather was right about Texas ANG memo typing capabilities.

I dont guess. I say what I live through. Coming from CA one might think you would know better. Where I am, 1 in every 31 homes are in foreclosure. Do you know what that means? CA dominates the top 10 after LV in cities with the highest foreclosure.

Unemployment is at its highest in 25 years. People are using their Visa card to buy groceries. Businesses are biting the dust one after another. Even Home Depots, Starbucks, McDonnalds and stores that have been around forever are closing.

There are a few bright spots such as where ever the hell you live. Open your eyes and accept not everyone is living the disgusting display of wealth as yourself.

I pay no attention to any news. Im well aware of the half truths they speak. Its not about reporting news, its about ratings so they can charge more for their ads. I dont watch any of it. But just driving down the main commerce drives and seeing all the businesses closing is proof positive. Not to mention the complete evaporation of the values of my and your homes.