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The NAR is a reputable organization, they have no reason to lie, or stretch the truth.
In fact, I just bought a great book by the NAR's former chief economist, David Lereah. It's called: Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them
Written in 2005, it is still timely. Also, it comes highly recommended by members of the Federal Reserve Board, and by execs at Fannie Mae! You just can't lose with advisors like these.
The NAR is a reputable organization, they have no reason to lie, or stretch the truth.
In fact, I just bought a great book by the NAR's former chief economist, David Lereah. It's called: Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue to Climb Through the End of the Decade - And How to Profit From Them
Written in 2005, it is still timely. Also, it comes highly recommended by members of the Federal Reserve Board, and by execs at Fannie Mae! You just can't lose with advisors like these.
Don't forget to pick up the sequel in hardback, from Larry Yun and Dick Gaylord....partners in crime!
In Hillsborough County (Tampa & burbs) for September 2008, there were 1,045 closed sales and 847 withdrawn and expired listings recorded. The numbers reported to the media and economists do not include expireds or withdrawns. Statistics can be misleading and easily misinterpreted.
I'm not sure I explained this clearly, but hopefully it makes sense to some.
Things still are bleak IMO until we get some "long term" news that really has some teeth in it...
Well ... after posting all of that stuff this morning about how we're not at the bottom ... which is still true.
I just put an offer on a house TODAY ... lol ... Why?
We know the exact neighborhood where we want to buy. We know which houses we want and which ones we don't. Even if some of the other foreclosures sell for cheaper those aren't houses that we would want to buy anyway.
But what really convinced us to buy this house was that most of the properties in this area are moving in this price range. We are seeing less choices ... at least in this particular neighborhood. Also, a much smaller, less desirable model right next door sold really fast ... and at the same price the bank was asking for the house we really wanted.
We've been watching this property for awhile. As soon as we walked in the door we knew this was the house for us. Don't know yet if the bank will accept the offer but ... we've finally taken the plunge.
I'll probably shoot myself later but ... there's the data and then there's the place where you want to live.
Well ... after posting all of that stuff this morning about how we're not at the bottom ... which is still true.
I just put an offer on a house TODAY ... lol ... Why?
We know the exact neighborhood where we want to buy. We know which houses we want and which ones we don't. Even if some of the other foreclosures sell for cheaper those aren't houses that we would want to buy anyway.
But what really convinced us to buy this house was that most of the properties in this area are moving in this price range. We are seeing less choices ... at least in this particular neighborhood. Also, a much smaller, less desirable model right next door sold really fast ... and at the same price the bank was asking for the house we really wanted.
We've been watching this property for awhile. As soon as we walked in the door we knew this was the house for us. Don't know yet if the bank will accept the offer but ... we've finally taken the plunge.
I'll probably shoot myself later but ... there's the data and then there's the place where you want to live.
Hey, you did your homework and sounds like you made a sound decision. If you are looking to be there for a long time, I have no issues w/that.
Just don't check out Zillow for the next 5-10 years to see what the "zestimate" is on your new residence hopefully... j/k!
Well ... after posting all of that stuff this morning about how we're not at the bottom ... which is still true.
I just put an offer on a house TODAY ... lol ... Why?
We know the exact neighborhood where we want to buy. We know which houses we want and which ones we don't. Even if some of the other foreclosures sell for cheaper those aren't houses that we would want to buy anyway.
But what really convinced us to buy this house was that most of the properties in this area are moving in this price range. We are seeing less choices ... at least in this particular neighborhood. Also, a much smaller, less desirable model right next door sold really fast ... and at the same price the bank was asking for the house we really wanted.
We've been watching this property for awhile. As soon as we walked in the door we knew this was the house for us. Don't know yet if the bank will accept the offer but ... we've finally taken the plunge.
I'll probably shoot myself later but ... there's the data and then there's the place where you want to live.
Instead be happy. Sounds like you made an informed decision and did your homework. Much luck to you.
Hey, you did your homework and sounds like you made a sound decision. If you are looking to be there for a long time, I have no issues w/that.
The length of time you stay in a house does not change the fact that you overpaid for a house. Unlike stocks there is no way to dollar cost average. When you take the plunge thats it. If you purchased too high you are going to loss money regardless of how long you keep the house. Keeping the house long just allows you to amortize the loss over a longer period of time.
And Sheri, no offense, but this is an emotional purchase for you. About this time last year you were thinking of buying also, I don't think its a coincidence that you are doing the same now. Declining markets stabilize during the selling seasoning giving one the impression that perhaps the market is close to "bottoming". But all the action happens in the 4ft and 1st quarter.
Anyhow, if you purchase now you'll be lucky if you only see another 15% decline.
The length of time you stay in a house does not change the fact that you overpaid for a house. Unlike stocks there is no way to dollar cost average. When you take the plunge thats it. If you purchased too high you are going to loss money regardless of how long you keep the house. Keeping the house long just allows you to amortize the loss over a longer period of time.
And Sheri, no offense, but this is an emotional purchase for you. About this time last year you were thinking of buying also, I don't think its a coincidence that you are doing the same now. Declining markets stabilize during the selling seasoning giving one the impression that perhaps the market is close to "bottoming". But all the action happens in the 4ft and 1st quarter.
Anyhow, if you purchase now you'll be lucky if you only see another 15% decline.
If you realize that prices might still go down and your ok w/it than that still is ok in my book.
Believe me, I have been fighting w/realtors and beating the drum about historicals longer than most on c/d, however ITS NOT JUST ABOUT PRICE when purchasing a home if you are going to live there for 20 years or so. OF COURSE you want to pay as little as possible, but you have to way all of the options and make a firm decision like Sheri did. I overpaid for my home (as of October of '08), but would I still want to be in NJ where I'd pay enormous property taxes, and have my kids away from their family?? Hell no. I made the right decision because my family is HAPPIER here than in NJ (this is an example of why its NOT only about getting the lowest price.) Life is short and happiness for my FAMILY is extremely high on my book. Could I have rented down here? Sure. Would I have wanted to, considering all my options? NO.
Prices here MAY drop 10% more, they MAY drop 25% more, no one knows for sure. But if your comfortable w/that and DON'T EXPECT to live off the value of your home when you look to downsize, (which w/my 401k, partial pension, taxable income I plan to use that for retirment) then your OK.
And Sheri, no offense, but this is an emotional purchase for you.
No, actually, it's not. When I was going to buy before ... yes. Not now. I know this is a long post but perhaps you'll agree with me if you read it.
When I look strictly at the numbers I agree with you. When I look at the specifics of where and what I want to buy … that’s where it gets complicated. Hell ... I could buy a property for half the price right now in other areas but I don't want to live in those other areas either.
When I was going to buy before ... I didn't know the area and I realized I could easily make a mistake. I had just moved here. Now that I've lived here six months ... I know exactly where I want to live, exactly what’s been happening with the market and exactly what's available.
I've researched every foreclosure as well as potential future foreclosures in the neighborhood and I don't care how cheap they get ... I don't want those houses. They don't work for us. So ... if they drop another 15 percent or more, it doesn't really matter because I wasn't going to buy those properties anyway.
For one thing, most of those properties are seriously trashed ... even the wiring is massively screwed up. A friend of mine who bought one of those foreclosures is having to spend megabucks with one of those. This property, by contrast, is in really good shape ... and I'm getting it for a lower price than she did.
So yeah ... the comps may be set lower with the trashed properties in the future but they are, for the most part, less desirable properties. Nevertheless, even if I wanted to fix those properties up ... I don't like the floor plans, I don't like the size of the lots, I need a three car garage ... not two, which is what these other properties have ...
Those houses are on the busier streets that I don't want to be located on. This house is on a quieter cul de sac which I really like. The list goes on and on as to why I like this property a lot better than the others.
If I strictly look at the market data and hold out for something better ... my only hope at this point would be for somebody else to default on the exact same model I want with a very similar location. But there's not that many models/locations like this in the neighborhood to begin with.
And ... I follow the NOD's every week and I'm just not seeing any more defaults in this particular neighborhood. Maybe it will happen but, seems to me that just about everybody in this neighborhood who’s going to default already has.
Meanwhile, just about every foreclosure in the neighborhood has moved in this same price range. There’s only 2-3 houses left so … at this point it's actually a risk for me to wait.
Yeah ... I probably could pick up something cheaper but ... it doesn't look like it would be anything that I would actually want to buy. That's the problem.
Last edited by sheri257; 10-25-2008 at 08:13 AM..
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j/k!
