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10-24-2008, 09:07 AM
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Location: Venice Florida
1,380 posts, read 5,694,400 times
Reputation: 878
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September annualized rate of sales is over 5 million units. Year over year sales numbers increased.
Foreclosure and Short Sales make up a large portion of the sales. So banks are setting prices.
Inventories are down.
Most sales were owner occupants not investors.
Maybe some good news?
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10-24-2008, 09:10 AM
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Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,039,540 times
Reputation: 3722
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLBob
September annualized rate of sales is over 5 million units. Year over year sales numbers increased.
Foreclosure and Short Sales make up a large portion of the sales. So banks are setting prices.
Inventories are down.
Most sales were owner occupants not investors.
Maybe some good news?
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If anyone is betting on a "V" type recovery than I think those individuals are sorely mistaken....
Anytime inventory goes down and sales increase its a step in the right direction.
I fear that we will not "recover" for several years however, so the news is pretty much "noise" IMO. |
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10-24-2008, 09:28 AM
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1,831 posts, read 5,120,891 times
Reputation: 672
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I really don't know how to read this. On the one hand, sales are up and usually that would be an indicator of at least the beginnings of a turnaround.
But ...
The inventory numbers being down is pretty misleading. Just as an example, one of the realtors I check in with from time to time tells me she's waiting on 25 bank owned homes to be listed.
So ... obviously, those homes haven't been counted in the inventory numbers yet.
I see the same thing in my foreclosure database. The amount of inventory out there that hasn't hit the market yet is staggering so ...
Anything is possible but I'm not by any means convinced we're near the bottom yet.
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10-24-2008, 09:36 AM
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Location: Wouldn't you like to know?
9,116 posts, read 17,039,540 times
Reputation: 3722
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sheri257
I really don't know how to read this. On the one hand, sales are up and usually that would be an indicator of at least the beginnings of a turnaround.
But ...
The inventory numbers being down is pretty misleading. Just as an example, one of the realtors I check in with from time to time tells me she's waiting on 25 bank owned homes to be listed.
So ... obviously, those homes haven't been counted in the inventory numbers yet.
I see the same thing in my foreclosure database. The amount of inventory out there that hasn't hit the market yet is staggering so ...
Anything is possible but I'm not by any means convinced we're near the bottom yet.
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You hit it right on the head...
Things still are bleak IMO until we get some "long term" news that really has some teeth in it... |
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10-24-2008, 09:38 AM
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Location: Barrington
63,948 posts, read 44,082,868 times
Reputation: 20645
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If the property is not listed, it's not a part of the headcount. The good news is that FSBO and unmarketed foreclosed properties have never been a part of these numbers.
The other side of the story is that prices have declined about 9% comparing 9/08 to 9/07.
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10-24-2008, 09:49 AM
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Location: Barrington
63,948 posts, read 44,082,868 times
Reputation: 20645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CouponJack
If anyone is betting on a "V" type recovery than I think those individuals are sorely mistaken....
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For the last 18 months, most home owners in my area convinced themselves a V-shaped recovery, is right around the corner. Things will pick up right after:
The Holidays
Super Bowl Sunday
Winter Break
Spring Break
When the weather warms up
4th of July
When the weather cools off
After the election
(Repeat as necessary) |
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10-24-2008, 01:43 PM
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Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 81,273,973 times
Reputation: 27707
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The devil is in the details:
Home sales see biggest gain since July 2003 - Yahoo! News (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081024/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing_7 - broken link)
"Most, if not all, the rise in sales is due to vulture investors buying cheap foreclosed homes, but all sales reduce inventory," said Ian Shepherdson, the chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York."
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10-24-2008, 01:52 PM
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22,769 posts, read 29,497,112 times
Reputation: 14688
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I'm a buyer, and I've had my eye on my local market since early 2008. Lots of the folks in my area don't need to sell. All summer, there were a surprising amount of houses that had 7 - 15% annual appreciation built into the asking price. I guess folks that didn't sell immediately after the multiple-year double-digit price increases now want to retroactively realize those gains.
If inventories are down, I'm betting that unmotivated/unwilling sellers are just pulling their homes off the market. People often don't "get the picture" that the economy is in trouble until their 401k's drop 40%, you know?
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10-24-2008, 02:28 PM
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Location: Humboldt Park, Chicago
2,686 posts, read 7,606,630 times
Reputation: 1195
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Realtor Post, forgets 9% decline in price
I highly respect middle-aged mom. She is a realtor who says it like it is.
FL Bob,
You totally forgot to include the 9% reduction in prices or that a large part of the properties being bought were foreclosures bought by vulture investors (I hope to become one of these in the next 12-24 months).
Inventories are still at 9.9 months, still too high. Until inventories get below 6 months will we see any sort of price bottom and then recovery, most likely l-shaped, not v-shaped.
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10-24-2008, 03:12 PM
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Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 81,273,973 times
Reputation: 27707
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NAR is calling bottom (again).
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
Funny thing though..if you go to the bottom of the article there is someone from National Association of Homebuilders saying we're not even nearing a bottom.
Well that should make everyone happy..we're at the bottom AND we're not at the bottom all in one article  |
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