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They seem pretty close in my area. But then, I live in sort of a cookie-cutter development in an area where there isn't a huge variance in the types and prices of the homes.
Zillow's estimates are pretty accurate for this area. There are a bit inflated by around 10% but I think that is because this area is very close in terms of distance (but not driving, as its divided by a huge mountain) to another area that is more expensive. Zillow seems to use the houses in the more expensive area has comps for this one.
Of course its not very good in cases where there is something unique (bad or good) about the house.
I do not find much use for Zillow. In my area (Chicago suburbs) they do rely on a combination of Township Appraisor's Records (which are notoriously inaccurate, often influenced by politics) and Recorder of Deeds data for recent sales, which are somewhat more useful, BUT the lack of human oversight leads to GLARING problems.
Whether through keying errors or incomplete data condo sales are treated the same as Single Family Detached, even though HUGE price differences exist between these kinds of markets in my area. Further the Recorder of Deeds OFTEN picks of re-finance data, which MLS never gets confused. This leads to ridiculous price changes! Another big source of errors are "non-arms length sales" -- if my sister and I "buy out" my mom there is no way that reflects the true market value of her home...
Finally the mechanical pricing system that Zillow has in place hugely penalizes any area with a large difference in the kinds of homes that my be right next to each other. Even if the homes are not high-end custom the neighborhoods of Chicago suburbs can have MAJOR difference due to a whole range of factors. School district and taxing district boundaries are a crazy quilt of overlap. I have personally seen idiot would-be developer types get wiped out by putting a really high end house in the WRONG set of school/tax districts! Never mind the fact that Zillow's algorithm can't tell that there is noisy, smelly autobody shop at the end of one street that locally depresses the selling price of homes only directly adjacent to it. Or that there is giant smelly 'detention pond' on one block that hurts the selling price of the new that had no landscaping to mitigate that negative, but five years out the mature shrubs and flowers effectively outweigh that negative...
To me, Zillow's concept only works in areas that are already EASY to do "zip code" appraisals...
The values aren't even close in the Dallas area. At one point, Zillow acknowledged being about 60+% off in value. Not sure what they've done since then to improve things. I think the site is a waste of time.
Well despite Zillow's poor estimates it seems they are the only ones who try. I do like the detailed info and the maps. I wish they would do commercial.
Trulia is a shill for Realty Trac and one wastes so much time clicking houses with no addresses and being linked to realtytrac which is not free. No commericial there either or on Realtor.com
To me, Zillow's concept only works in areas that are already EASY to do "zip code" appraisals...
I live in a sub that resides in two townships/ counties within the same school district. The Zillow price for the same model/same size lot varies on the same block as well as across the county/township line.
Zillow does not distinguish between a property that adjoins Lake/Cook or is water-front. Zillow does not know if the condition is original as in 40 years old or gutted to the studs and rebuilt with $100's of thousands in improvements.
In an exercise to try to figure out what sort of % off I was getting on a home purchase (signed contract on Friday) I tried to use Zillow. Here's what I got.
Last sale 5/21/2007 for $280,000. This area has historically risen by 6% appreciation each year. The seller put $10,000 into remodeling the bathroom. I used $5,000 as the value added. I put a contract on the home 11/21/2008 for $266,500.
5/21/2007 Zillow Zestimate 324,074 -17.77%
11/19/2008 Zillow Zestimate 289,074 -7.81%
3% appreciation +$5K for b-room 293,400 -9.17%
0% apprec + $5K for b-room 285,000 -6.49%
5/21/2007 sale price 280,000 -4.82%
The way I figure it, the best estimate of fair market valu is the $285,000 (0% appreciation since last sale) so I'm getting 6 1/2% off with my contract price.
Zillow is only a bit too high for the 11/19 Zestimate, but seems way too high for the 5/21/07 Zestimate.
Does this make sense?
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