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You don't have to be a brain surgeon to realize that 2009 will test the meddle of that part of the American character that has been all but absent for the better part of a decade - frugality. Projected unemployment numbers in the 10% range now being predicted by economic experts, house values falling further, more people going underwater, more people losing their ability to borrow against their homes, and very probable that even bottom feeding opportunists will get cold feet. Where's the fun when the only real business and real estate activity involves the well-off moving their money around? Lets pray gas prices stay down, because consumers see what they're paying for groceries and know that stretching a buck is the new paradigm - not the granite, stainless, sleazy borrowing practices, and zip code upgrades of the recent past. Most of our towns Realtors are now saying "welcome to Wal Mart", or wearing an orange apron at Home Depot (although they are laying off more workers too) or living off diminishing savings. It's going to be really interesting. Bring on the popcorn.
Last edited by Ria Rhodes; 12-23-2008 at 01:39 PM..
More transactions for the Realtors left. I'm looking forward to 2009.
More inventory = more homes for Americans to buy.
Funny guy you.
2009 will be worse than 2008 (maybe not for me, but for people who own homes or are involved with real estate in some capacity). Pretty much a guarantee I'd bet a large amount of money on.
It's not just RE price valuations anymore. Many mass layoffs are occurring and many people are holding back, not for lower prices but because they don't know what the future holds as far as their jobs now.
The mass refi going on now is a good thing. With lower mortgages more people should hopefully be able to absorb a job loss and continue paying their mortgage.
2009 will be worse than 2008 (maybe not for me, but for people who own homes or are involved with real estate in some capacity). Pretty much a guarantee I'd bet a large amount of money on.
Nationally, sales may actually be better in 2009 than 2008. It seems that glut in sales could bottom fairly soon. Of course historically, sales bottom out years before prices bottom.
But of course, the prices will decline and hence less will be made per sale.
Nationally, sales may actually be better in 2009 than 2008. It seems that glut in sales could bottom fairly soon. Of course historically, sales bottom out years before prices bottom....
Is there C-S data on that? Or even NAR? Not doubting, just that my recollection, foggy though it may be, is that inventory increases this sudden have never really been documented. Similarly I suspect that C-S's "falling off a cliff" curve can't really get much steeper. Prices could spend a long time "on the floor" but why would they continue to decline if sales VOLUME picks up? How much data is there that MULTIPLE foreclosure cycles are going to kick in? Is that part of your assumptions?
10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 (Source: CNN Money)
The housing market hasn't bottomed out yet. For the third quarter, the closely-watched S&P Case-Shiller national home-price index fell 16.6%, and experts are predicting further declines. Of the top 100 markets, here are 10 with the worst forecasts.
1. Los Angeles, California
2. Stockton, California
3. Riverside, California
4. Miami-Miami, Florida
5. Sacramento, California
6. Santa Ana-Anaheim, California
7. Fresno, California
8. San Diego, California
9. Bakersfield, California
10. Washington, D.C.
Just look to any of the heavily hit bubble markets to see continued price declines even as sales volumes increase. It's happening now. Orange County CA sales are up 44% year over year with prices down about 30% and still dropping.
Even though sales are up, it still might not be enough to keep pace with houses coming on the market. Once sales reach those levels, they have to exceed them by enough to work off all of the excess supply that's been sitting around clogging up the market. That takes time, and until an equilibruim is met between supply and demand, prices will continue to drop.
As for the new foreclosures, they've been mentioned quite a bit. There's two things here. The first is the pending Alt-A resets : Alt-A Pain Still Ahead | Piggington's Econo-Almanac | San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis. There's also the problem that the majority of people who have had their loans modified are in default again : Modified Loans Often Lead Homeowners Back to Trouble - Center for Responsible Lending (http://www.responsiblelending.org/news/newsbriefs/modified-loans-often-lead-homeowners-back-to-trouble.html - broken link).
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Really?
