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Even state-level statistics are too broad. You really want to boil it down to something as local as zipcode, school district, or whatever you'd call a neighborhood. After studying all the predictions and trends, I've decided for myself that the only one that matters in terms of finding a bottom is inventory/months-of-supply in my specific search area.
I've heard that in a "balanced" market, 6 months supply is normal. Anything higher and prices will be dropping, anything lower and prices will creep up (excepting multi-million dollar properties which take longer to sell).
8 months supply is probably a safe entry point where you won't get burned too badly.
(All that barring something new and extreme happening-- or-- going into a Japanese downtrend that is a slow bleed over 15+ years).
Take your best guess, don't look back and don't apologize. No one knows.
Low price homes are in big demand in CA. Right now there is less than a 3 month supply of homes under $500k due to first time buyers snatching them up and investors buying them and renting them out, sometimes to the previous owner. The bottom will not hit at the same time across the whole nation, in some areas where the bubble began, the bottom hit in January. Other parts of the country are still declining.
Low price homes are in big demand in CA. Right now there is less than a 3 month supply of homes under $500k due to first time buyers snatching them up and investors buying them and renting them out, sometimes to the previous owner. The bottom will not hit at the same time across the whole nation, in some areas where the bubble began, the bottom hit in January. Other parts of the country are still declining.
Which areas/cities specifically are you talking about Glenn?
According to the data, nowhere "bottomed" in January. Every single city listed showed further declines between January and March
In addition - take a look at the data in this report http://moremortgagemeltdown.com/down...age_crisis.pdf - specifically pages 42-88 - some very sobering information for anyone who thinks we've hit bottom anywhere.
Last edited by London Girl; 06-20-2009 at 09:07 PM..
I've spoken to a few realtors about the situation and I am getting mixed reviews. One says it's the bottom from all the magazines she's read, the other says we got a while to go. I don't know whose advice to take. It's frustrating.
I still follow the market where we came from and it is big up and big down market. I still get the listings via MLS from our agent. Everything is different but the Raleigh market is not like many others and is not taking as big a hit nor did it have as big a gain. What I am seeing there is the emergence of different markets withing the broader market. Some neighborhoods are stabilizing and others aren't. Schools make a big difference along with other factors. Affordability and supply demand seem to be the driving factors. Only so many houses can and will sell at any given price point and the ride up produced more then folks can afford or want to afford today. Some will sell and others will need to be reduced and reduced etc.
I still follow the market where we came from and it is big up and big down market. I still get the listings via MLS from our agent. Everything is different but the Raleigh market is not like many others and is not taking as big a hit nor did it have as big a gain. What I am seeing there is the emergence of different markets withing the broader market. Some neighborhoods are stabilizing and others aren't. Schools make a big difference along with other factors. Affordability and supply demand seem to be the driving factors. Only so many houses can and will sell at any given price point and the ride up produced more then folks can afford or want to afford today. Some will sell and others will need to be reduced and reduced etc.
That's kind of good news for me b/c I really want to come there, but don't want to be outpriced. Schools are important to me being my son has 3 years of high school left. I have seen some good deals there, but also the area plays a big factor as you said.
That's kind of good news for me b/c I really want to come there, but don't want to be outpriced. Schools are important to me being my son has 3 years of high school left. I have seen some good deals there, but also the area plays a big factor as you said.
Remember this the sooner you get out of a declining market the more you will still have in equity when you sell.
Remember this the sooner you get out of a declining market the more you will still have in equity when you sell.
Yeah, I know. I just lowered the price on my house for the second time. I hope to sell soon before my son goes back to school in the fall.
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