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Peculiarly enough, this is one thing I don't worry about. Consider: we're going to use up what's left of the oil reserves. Probably sooner rather than later. But I think that's going to have the effect of bringing out some of the better qualities in the human race. Instead of the end of civilization due to the absence of petroleum, we're going to have to develop alternatives...and this time, there won't be any other options. I do believe humans will rise to the occasion.
I hope you are right. My concern is whether we even have enough time to develop new energy sources and put them into place. At current population levels, we cannot feed everybody without energy from oil and petroleum products. Of course, I realize that in theory reduced population from starvation would stave off the problem but that's just awful to imagine. Not to mention the political and social unrest that would occur when people are starving. I don't know if we will ever get to that point. I hope not. But, that's why I would like to find reliable data on how close we are to using up the earth's oil supply. And, how close are we to actually developing alternate energy sources? From what I've read, there are major hurdles to surmount in even developing alternate supplies much less implementing them. How critical is the problem? I don't know.
I hope you are right. My concern is whether we even have enough time to develop new energy sources and put them into place. At current population levels, we cannot feed everybody without energy from oil and petroleum products. Of course, I realize that in theory reduced population from starvation would stave off the problem but that's just awful to imagine. Not to mention the political and social unrest that would occur when people are starving. I don't know if we will ever get to that point. I hope not. But, that's why I would like to find reliable data on how close we are to using up the earth's oil supply. And, how close are we to actually developing alternate energy sources? From what I've read, there are major hurdles to surmount in even developing alternate supplies much less implementing them. How critical is the problem? I don't know.
Note:
- as oil price increases, so do the recoverable reserves as many more expensive technologies can be used
- for over a century, the oil has expected to run out in 20-30 yrs. It never does. Yes, reserves are finite, but right now, we have not even explored many miles away from the shoreline. Most of the earth's surface is water, and most is still unexplored. It will be expensive, but there is much more oil - probably for over 200 yrs.
- focus is also shifting to "brown fields" - which are really older fields. Often, 60-80% of the original oil is not produced - companies are working on technologies to re-exploit these fields
OP: with oil prices headed up (long term), other technologies will come into play. I worry less about technology but more about the people's mentalities. This includes middle-east - they are single-handledly dragging the world down with their outlook. I worry that over 50% of science teachers in some southern states do not believe in evolution (meaning, we are not learning from things -like science - we should learn from). I worry about climate change being politicised and, despite us having the technology, us failing to keep things in check. Some of the harm to the globe may be irreversible. The world is probably more peaceful now than it was in the past. However, we all have enough nukes to destroy the world over 200 times - so the stakes are still high. International tensions do not help. With more countries having nukes, our decisions have major consequences.
I worry about our collective mindset and the decisions that come out of it. This mindset is very difficult to change easily or quickly. Good thing is that overall, we seem to be definately progressing over the last few centuries. Changes are positive, but dangers are still there.
"Altru...what? another"ism"? Nahhh; that'll NEVER sell.
Aeroman has, of course, hit the nail on the head. Or the condom, but we know that doesn't work on a practical level. When I see on CNN throngs of starving African or Afghani children that cannot be fed, my first reaction is a logical one: why did they get conceived and born in the first place?
We N. Americans & Western Europeans have succeeded, by frivolous and overt example, in "convincing" the world that our flagrant and over-consuming lifestyle is something to be cherished and sought-after. At any and all costs. Even when one of us is silly enough to suggest that the 3rd and 4th worlds should now not follow our stupid consumerist example, they only think it's because we want to keep it all for ourselves.
Look at China for instance. Bound for consumer hell for sure. Not to mention their outrageous spawning creations of hydroelectric, "nuc" and coal-fired power plants. And hi-speed railroads. And cars. And flat-screen TVs. And condominiums. And prepared fast foods.
As Marlon said: "The Horror! The Horror!"
I know and talk to altogether too many middle-aged, near-retirement seasoned ecologists, biologists and geophysicists to dismiss the inevitable. There's too big a consensus. We may allow technology to charge forward but IMHO it seems to be a percentage point or two behind the necessary rate of advancement to help us out. It's currently too reactive, not pro-active, and given the furious pace at which our planet is changing, that won't likely cut it. In other words, it might seem to be "almost enough", but actually, it's still "too little, too late". It just acts as a panacea, a poltice, for what's actually coming. With inevitability.
After all, what if some truly virulent disease pathogen evolves and becomes airborne and goes pandemic? One infected carrier who visits LAX, for example, and BOOM!! It's trans-global in 24 hours, and on it's way out to the suburbs.
Yes, the growing price of oil will "fuel" the development of electric cars, but then we'd not be able to tow the ski boat down to the lake 370 miles away, at a mean speed of 82 mph, with the "hang-meat-cold" AC on full recirc. Mayhaps a dog team-like array of Nissan Leafs, spread out "on the traces" like sled dogs in the Iditarod, in front of the boat? The boat would also have an electric motors, meaning that if you're lucky, for the first 12 minutes it might get little Suzy, your lightweight 8 yr old daughter, briefly up on the skis...
Nah; ain't gonna sell. We'd rather go to war in Iraq....
My question still remains: can man see far enough ahead, with both eyes open, and with decided clarity, and then react accordingly, completely altering our primary lifestyles, beliefs and dedication to our fellow man?
Can ALTRUISM become the next new true religion?
And if so, will I still be able to get KFC? I mean, come ON! Some things are still a valid religion, right?
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BTW, ptsum: would you be so kind as to give me the lat/long GPS coordinates of your home? I'd like to mov... I mean... "stop by" some time!
I'd even bring the KFC and cider! Oh yeah, and some suitable "protection technologies"
Note:
- as oil price increases, so do the recoverable reserves as many more expensive technologies can be used
- for over a century, the oil has expected to run out in 20-30 yrs. It never does. Yes, reserves are finite, but right now, we have not even explored many miles away from the shoreline. Most of the earth's surface is water, and most is still unexplored. It will be expensive, but there is much more oil - probably for over 200 yrs.
- focus is also shifting to "brown fields" - which are really older fields. Often, 60-80% of the original oil is not produced - companies are working on technologies to re-exploit these fields
Interesting article. The 'Estimated Reserves by Country' chart was highly illuminating. According to the chart, which focuses on the top 17 countries, we have about 54 years of reserve oil. But, of those 17 countries, 8 countries (OPEC) have provided what appears to be inflated estimates with no verifiable documentation for their estimates.
However, the article did discuss unproven, possible and unconventional reserves which require improved technology or financial investment to access. Here's to hoping that works out!
Additionally, the article does not seem to take into account future demands for oil as the population increases and more third world nations seek to emulate our standard of living. China comes to mind as a vast growing country that will put ever increasing demans on supply. (Not that the US hasn't led by example)
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Additionally, the article does not seem to take into account future demands for oil as the population increases and more third world nations seek to emulate our standard of living. China comes to mind as a vast growing country that will put ever increasing demans on supply. (Not that the US hasn't led by example)
We Earth Stewards face some unprecedented challenges. This planet has, obviously, finite resources, some of which have already reached the veritable ends of their tethers. Oceanic fish stocks, fresh, clean, unpolluted water sources, soil reserves and places to hide our masses of garbage and plastics. As well, we continue to charge on, driven by the greed of big biz, big religion and big politics, with no end in sight.
I suggest that we're simply not ecologically or spiritually evolved sufficiently to see our own upcoming demise. We prefer to blindly believe in the eventual End Times salvation by some mystical god figure(s), or in technology, or in the dismissive claims of politicians and big biz/big oil that it will all take care of itself.
Of course, the individual claimants (CEOs, PR managers, news anchors) for such strategies, you'll notice, are quite high on the financial food chain, and they intend to wring every drop of profit out of the system for themselves. At your's and my expense of course; keep the little ones endlessly toiling (to buy that new combination window fan / food processor / hot tub heater down at WalMart. "But....Awe! It's only on sale for this weekend, honey!, And Fred next door just LOVES his!")
Since no, we can't spend our way to ecological or financial stability, nor can we "recover" back to what we had and cherished 4 - 5 years, what chance do we have? God sure as heck ain't comin', which means we've got to grab ourselves by the scruff of the neck, give ourselves a well-deserved shake, and promptly get on with some sort of logical, rational, science-driven programs.
We clearly need designs of restraint, of common sense, and of the full realization of our limits and those of this planet. We also need to learn to deal effectively with those primal types who would drag us back into the Very Dark Ages. (In order, of course, that a select few of them get to sit in the Big Chair and order us peon goatherds around...) But just who are those threats?
In order of threat level, I'd place Islam at the top, then big globalized business concerns, mostly topped by Big Oil, then the more rabidly insistent Southern Baptist-type fundamentalist Churches with their moronic "educational" objectives, and finally those brain-dead rote-chanting sheeple with Rush Limbaugh-like mentalities, who feel that Mother Nature can and will absorb all the damage we can possibly inflict. (You should have heard ol' Rushbo recently about the Gulf eco-disaster! According to him, there's literally no problem; it'll all just heal itself, and soon. Just like with the Exxon Valdez!)
So, what do you think? We be OK? Or We be Doomed? Or will God/Moses come riding in on a big white horse, just in time (why not now?)? Shall we all just pray, or start thinking and acting for ourselves?
It's in our hands, after all.
You've put quite a lot on the table there rifle.
I never did go for putting anything on "religion" though. It's sorta like saying once you hit 65 your medical treatment is "free" because "the government" will pay for it. Like some dude named "Mr. Government" is going to pull out his wallet and cover the tab. The Government = The People. Same with "religion". There is no evil spectre named "Religion" that persecutes others. Religion is just another "reason" evil men use to be inhuman to other men to gain wealth, power, or just because they are so twisted they "get off" on being malevolent and making others suffer.
I see thread after thread about..."If God could cure suffering, but He doesn't, that is indicative that He is bad". Well...any of us on this forum have the ability to cure some suffering with a portion of our abundance. We've got enough to own computers, after all...while children starve to death because the don't have 3 five cent bowls of rice per day. Since we don't help all we could...are we to then to be seen as evil? How does "religion" figure into our selfishness? Some even claim they aren't religious, and function completely on logic and reason. So, their "logic and reason" doesn't tell them that having a relatively obscene abundance...while others starve...is the height of selfishness and cruelty?
See...we don't want to admit it...but man is intrinsically selfish and uncaring. If we weren't, there wouldn't be anyone starving to death while others purchased vehicles, jewelry, and expensive real estate. Switch roles...and they wouldn't do any more for us than we do for them. Why is man like that?...I don't know. But we are...and the facts bear it out.
We know transportation devices that burn fossil fuels...and the systems needed to manufacture and operate them on...causes the bulk of the pollution in this world. We also know that we don't REALLY need them...we didn't have them for 99.9999% of human history. But we WANT them...so the environment be damned. The starving child in some third-world country creates ZERO pollution...but look at our lives, with our vehicles and garbage/waste creating lifestyle. Quite the inequity.
Man will always try to come up with some BS to justify his selfishness and greed...so he doesn't have to cop to the bitter reality of it. But the fact is...most people will live their lives in relative selfishness...unwilling to sacrifice any REAL amount of what they have...while they know others have such a deficiency in what they have, they are dying. The ones that do make the sacrifice we will call "heros"...but they will be few and far between.
SUMMATION: Love others as you love yourself...Do to/for others as you would want them do to/for you...and don't do to others anything you wouldn't want them to do to you. These may be beautiful words...and a nice ideal...but you will very, very, very rarely get those with extra to reduce themselves to a state of slight need, so others don't suffer total need. We are way too selfish for that.
Yes. There is always this business of 'Someone must do something about it' but it always seems to be someone else who has to do it. Joe public thinks its down to the government and the government exhorts Joe and Josephine public to share their bathwater while the G2 leaders get together in 5 star hotels to pass toothless resoutions.
I'd prefer not to drag the 'Problem of Evil' into this. Although if not, I'm not sure whether it falls under philosophy or religion.
Yes. There is always this business of 'Someone must do something about it' but it always seems to be someone else who has to do it. Joe public thinks its down to the government and the government exhorts Joe and Josephine public to share their bathwater while the G2 leaders get together in 5 star hotels to pass toothless resoutions.
I'd prefer not to drag the 'Problem of Evil' into this. Although if not, I'm not sure whether it falls under philosophy or religion.
AREQUIPA, it necessarily has to get down to the "Problem of Evil"...unless we just want to pass no judgements...or even have a "standard" to judge against.
Nobody views the hawk as evil for killing the chicken and eating it...that's just "the way nature is". Should we set aside factoring our ability to reason and interact emotionally, and just look at ourselves as any other mammal that is trying it's best to survive? Then, that removes "evil"...and ANY generous, charitable, or magnanimous act would be looked at as on the plus side...and never seen as insufficient. Any act that enhanced our survival...regardless of how it compromised anything or anybody else...would just be seen as "Natural Selection" and "Survival of the Fittest...with no judgments of any kind.
We obviously see ourselves as more lofty than that...and since we do, the "Problem of Evil" will ALWAYS figure into it.
My question still remains: can man see far enough ahead, with both eyes open, and with decided clarity, and then react accordingly, completely altering our primary lifestyles, beliefs and dedication to our fellow man?
Can ALTRUISM become the next new true religion?
And if so, will I still be able to get KFC? I mean, come ON! Some things are still a valid religion, right?
I'm afraid your depressing assessment is all too accurate, Rflmn. Too little, too late is the truth.
We are actually in the midst of a attempted forced "downsizing" of our lifestyes and the GOV is pulling out all the stops to accomplish it. The media is being used to glorify "green living", new urbanism and the whole "green mentality", scaring babies with Global Warming and otherwise doing it's best to make it a de facto religion, but it seems to me the average suburban jimbo doesn't buy what they are selling. They know a 1/2 acre+ lot with a 6000 square foot starter castle overflowing with big-box junk and a couple of Hummers in the garage is more fun than a 2 bedroom 900 sq foot box 500 ft in the air with a probably vandalized "smart" car parked down below and a mugger, begger and/or politician on every street corner in their "neighborhood". They won't go willingly, and the only really effective way to force it is to kill the middle class and upward mobility. Is it just coincidence that is exactly what is happening to the country?
But even if that tin-foil hat theory is correct, it still won't be enough to totally reverse the "American Way".
If anything, it will only make people angrier, which will of course be a boon to fundamentalist religions who love to pick up those kind of people and get them to do the craziest things, all in the name of "god", never realizing they are just fodder for their leader's real-world political agenda(s), of course. The flames of hatred are then fanned, and it leads to even more violence.
One thing's for sure. I'm gonna grow old in a very scary future world...
Last edited by Chango; 08-05-2010 at 09:09 AM..
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"Altru...what? another"ism"? Nahhh; that'll NEVER sell.
