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No. I am worried about a crash that makes investments, even "safe" ones lose significant value. I don't think it is likely in my lifetime, but my fear is that "not likely" is maybe a 20% chance. The loan balance wouldn't drop.
No. I am worried about a crash that makes investments, even "safe" ones lose significant value. I don't think it is likely in my lifetime, but my fear is that "not likely" is maybe a 20% chance. The loan balance wouldn't drop.
What???......Not only are you likely to experience a significant crash in your lifetime but probably several (unless you're in the elderly age group). The market as it is now is nearing a tipping point......if you notice it's up one day down the next, etc...but it has hovered around the 18K mark for a while now and is moving what they call "sideways".
When will it fall.....that's the billion dollar question. Could be caused by a major world event, just by a large group of investors catching the fear bug and bailing starting the dominoes to follow along or by one of any other number of reasons that may or may not be expected or make any rational sense.
Heed these wise words:
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." - John Maynard Keynes
No. I am worried about a crash that makes investments, even "safe" ones lose significant value. I don't think it is likely in my lifetime, but my fear is that "not likely" is maybe a 20% chance. The loan balance wouldn't drop.
What is perceived as safe today will be shunned shortly. Watch govt bonds. Stocks will be safer.
No. I am worried about a crash that makes investments, even "safe" ones lose significant value. I don't think it is likely in my lifetime, but my fear is that "not likely" is maybe a 20% chance. The loan balance wouldn't drop.
why not go with something like the permanent portfolio. it profits in any one of the major scenarios. it had 4 slightly down years the last 40 years.
it uses 4 asset classes that move opposite each other.
it uses equal amounts of an index fund-long term treasury's- gold-cash .
you can profit in recessions -prosperity-deflation and depression .
while never meant too be a barn barning growth vehicle it will never let any climate devastate you either.
if you do follow the plan ,realize the cycles for some assets can run a lot longer than stocks so it should be a long term investment.
the cash is an important part as it acts as a call option to buy assets at lower prices as you rebalance each year.
the last 5 years it has done little but it didn't have to since in 2008 it was actually up and it didn't need all those gains to recover.
the last 15 years it did as well as a 100% investment in the s&p 500 with 75% less risk.
i went back to this strategy myself with 1/2 of my investment money. the other 1/2 i still have traditionally invested based around lower rates and good times for the markets.
you can learn more about it here
2014 returns were not complete yet in the article. they came in at 9.10%
I don't think the well intentioned posters above understand what I mean by significant. Some of the economic collapse scenarios are not as far fetched as you might think or hope. Like I said, I don't think it is likely but the likelihood may be great enough to try to limit the damage. I insure against other unlikely scenarios.
Interesting that no one has commented on my potentially irrational fear - the fear of a collapse.
I have the same fear...this is why we paid cash for our 105K condo almost a year ago. It may not make "financial sense" to some, but, it gives me great peace of mind to have it paid for. Also, I did not want to go through the hassle of obtaining a mortgage.
well like i said , there are ways to invest and not rule out other outcomes but to allow and profit from them too. what you can't get is the biggest bang for the buck and the protection but you can still do just fine .
at this stage of my life i am done taking big bets on falling rates and prosperity as being the only outcomes i can profit from . so i run 2 portfolios now .
you can make the variable portfolio as large or small as you want . but the money that is near and dear to you can go in the permanent portfolio (not the fund ) and know that whether it is a depression or hyper inflation odds are you should be okay. 2008 was an up year for the portfolio even though the stock portion fell almost 40%
We still are not on the same page. There are some NWO (New World Order) scenarios that are not as far fetched as they once were. I still think that it is not likely to happen while I am alive but the chances of one happening are not nearly as low as I would like. I will give you one example. This is not a quick read but worth a few minutes IMO: Basic Income: Why and How Should We Build a Basic Income for Every Citizen?
A pretty well reasoned argument that supports this statement:
Quote:
In other words, as a society we would reject the idea of the concentration of wealth and change the rules so that, as a result of those rules, society's income is available to everyone across the full population.
I don't see this sort of shift as likely in my lifetime but I think the odds against it are not that high. I actually agree with a lot of what he says about status quo being a problem and think it will be addressed in some way.
Last edited by ReachTheBeach; 06-21-2015 at 07:22 AM..
We still are not on the same page. There are some NWO (New World Order) scenarios that are not as far fetched as they once were. I still think that it is likely to happen while I am alive but the chances of one happening are not nearly as low as I would like. I will give you one example. This is not a quick read but worth a few minutes IMO: Basic Income: Why and How Should We Build a Basic Income for Every Citizen?
A pretty well reasoned argument that supports this statement:I don't see this sort of shift as likely in my lifetime but I think the odds against it are not that high. I actually agree with a lot of what he says about status quo being a problem and think it will be addressed in some way.
I've read about the basic income movement. It's not just the US either.
Just remember the wheels of government move slow, very slow.
If Congress ever started talking about that I think you'd have plenty of time to act.
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