Lynchburg needs to get the clothing stores going.... (leasing, buying)

[cam4vt]

Valley View in Roanoke is "only" 800,000 sq ft not including all the stores and restaurants that are now through valley view blvd. (and built in the mall parking lot) We don't have the higher end shopping we want yet, but maybe with H&M coming it will tick up especially with the other side of 581 opening up for development in a year or two. Point I'm trying to make is that small town or not the NE is different when it comes to development. Roanoke which is a bigger city and bigger urban area/metro doesn't have what you describe yet. I think Lynchburg is doing okay for its size. That can be different depending where you are from. Luckily for you I think times may be changing for roanoke/lynchburg and some of the retail you want or think should be here will show up sooner than later.

[badger74]

At least L is healthier and happier than most.

Lynchburg Rated Among The Happiest And Healthiest Cities In The - WSET.com - ABC13

[sregorat3]

Originally Posted by Fenway65

I am sorry if calling River's Edge a mini-mall offended anyone. But if you cannot concede that it is indeed tiny, especially considering the large population of Lynchburg, then the rest of us must all live in some bizarre Mega-Mall utopian society.

Compared to what other Lynchburg residents and forum members told us about area's shopping, I thought my comment was quite restrained. Even our realtor called the mall "pathetic" and told us to plan on driving to Richmond or Washington DC. (She was well dressed) But having such a large portion of retail dollars going to surrounding cities must be a substantial drain on the local economy! I would hope Lynchburg city-planners have a plan in place to correct this, even if only for their own financial benefit.

It is doubtful that you offend anyone; I think that it has been pointed out that your comments seem to have quite the negative twist on the area. No problem with that, but your terminology often is off base, and it seems to come off as intending to be disparaging and condescending. An example is your incorrect identification of places like River Ridge Mall (River's Edge) and Peaks of Otter (Otter Peak). If these areas are of enough interest to even discuss, why not identify them correctly. Another is the use of the term "mini-mall," which might be meaningful to you, but is really not a category that many shopping centers today even fit in. River Ridge is categorized as a regional mall... even if it does stink. Voice opinion (i.e. the mall stinks), but don't bother trying to bolster your comments with information that is not factual. One other thing that must differ between here and your home is that the city planners don't make decisions on where retail spaces will open or expand, even if it is for their financial benefit.

[badger74]

Originally Posted by Fenway65

Just for the record, we do not currently live in rich Boston suburb. We live in a small rural town with a population of ~8,000 (like Forest?). The next town over is larger and more developed. But it has a population of only 59,000, 75% that of Lynchburg. They built a mall there about 25 years ago. It's not the Mall of America by any means, but adequate for the community's needs at the time. It has 183 stores and restaurants and 1.2 million sq ft of retail space. Macy's currently occupies 250,000, Sears 140,000. Once the mall reached maximum capacity, the surrounding area was also developed with both stand alone stores and plazas. I understand it now exceeds 4 million sq ft of retail. Several years ago, a modern design mini-mall was added adjacent to the old mall. It houses 50 shops and restaurants in a setting much like Short Pump. It currently offers 450,000 sq ft of retail, about the same as River's Edge. I am sorry if calling River's Edge a mini-mall offended anyone. But if you cannot concede that it is indeed tiny, especially considering the large population of Lynchburg, then the rest of us must all live in some bizarre Mega-Mall utopian society.

Compared to what other Lynchburg residents and forum members told us about area's shopping, I thought my comment was quite restrained. Even our realtor called the mall "pathetic" and told us to plan on driving to Richmond or Washington DC. (She was well dressed) But having such a large portion of retail dollars going to surrounding cities must be a substantial drain on the local economy! I would hope Lynchburg city-planners have a plan in place to correct this, even if only for their own financial benefit.

Actually this has been studied and Lynchburg loses NO money to out of area stores and actually is net positive for retail overall. That is based on real economics. Not walking around 1 mall. I posted the study here when it was published if you want to read it. I know a lot about retail Lyncburg is a highly served area overall. There may be some small retail segments that some feel are underserved (high fashion etc) but in totality for the income levels it is not losing much $$$ at all to other areas. See Buxton analysis at end of this city case report. It is detailed and instructive.

http://lynchburg.granicus.com/MetaVi...&meta_id=18299

[LynchburgLover]

OP: I have one suggestion for you if you decide to relocate to Lynchburg. There's one phrase that Southerners, including many in Lynchburg, do not like: "up North, we . . . ". Comparing and implying the superiority of your old community to your new will not endear you to the locals. There's even a bumper sticker you will occassionally see "We don't care how you did it up North".

[sregorat3]

Originally Posted by badger74

Actually this has been studied and Lynchburg loses NO money to out of area stores and actually is net positive for retail overall. That is based on real economics. Not walking around 1 mall. I posted the study here when it was published if you want to read it. I know a lot about retail Lyncburg is a highly served area overall. There may be some small retail segments that some feel are underserved (high fashion etc) but in totality for the income levels it is not losing much $$$ at all to other areas. See Buxton analysis at end of this city case report. It is detailed and instructive.

http://lynchburg.granicus.com/MetaVi...&meta_id=18299

Badger- one thing I noticed in that report was that the overall trade area showed significant leakage in more categories than not. That seems to suggest that outlying residents could augment retail sales. I would love to see the same study in Charlottesville and Roanoke, because where we have a relative balance, they would likely be skewed much further past "1" than any area studied in the Lynchburg region. The study was also completed in 2009; population estimates put out by the Weldon Cooper Center were found to be far off base when the 2010 census was completed and the growth projections are still being outpaced by population growth. Two of the trade areas that showed significant delines in population growth included the fastest growing part of the city, as well as areas that over-the-board saw positive growth in population. WC had predicted a population of around 68,000 in 2010 when actual numbers were over 75,000. I think I'll call Marjette and ask about her opinion; it would be interesting to hear the perspective of an Economic Dev't official.

[badger74]

With all the new construction along 221 since 2009 including big new auto dealerships, new Kroger, new westside Walmart, new hotels out Wards Rd. and the recently opened new center near Billy Craft I doubt much overall change in that ratio. The pop growth has been a great surprise and certainly helps cement the success of the existing retail core with higher sales PSF.

[sregorat3]

Originally Posted by badger74

With all the new construction along 221 since 2009 including big new auto dealerships, new Kroger, new westside Walmart, new hotels out Wards Rd. and the recently opened new center near Billy Craft I doubt much overall change in that ratio. The pop growth has been a great surprise and certainly helps cement the success of the existing retail core with higher sales PSF.

When you take the overall (the last bit of figures based on the entire region) it seems to suggest that there is a significant amount of leakage in several sectors. If this just included the areas outside of those boundaries based on points on the map (i.e. 501&221, 9th St, etc) it could be assumed that the leakage in those areas actually was the cause for the strong sales within the city, but they include the totality of the region. Granted, these categories are not necessarily those that a retailer might develop a large regional center on, but they do show some opportunity, none the less. I also noticed this article based on Va Dept of Health that identifies Lynchburg as one of the most underserved cities in the state in regards to grocery stores. Lynchburg ranked dead last in the survey, with a couple of the surrounding counties just a point or two higher. There certainly seems to be plenty of infill opportunities in that category.

[badger74]

I guess if you expect to walk to a grocery store-sure. However within a short bus ride or easy car trip there are plenty of grocery stores. You can drive from one place in L to any other place in 15 minutes or less most of the time. Even the poor areas of town appear to have cars parked all along the streets so....Not really buying that. Allied cab will take you anywhere too. It is HQ in the central area of town. I'll go take a look at the leakage areas.

Our Huge GAFO surplus explains most of the negs in electronics, clothing and health/beauty as all these segments are very strong at WalMart and other large discounters common in L. There is heavy overlap in those.

And this just in on food.

http://www.retailleader.com/top-stor...nnel-3020.html

[sregorat3]

Originally Posted by badger74

I guess if you expect to walk to a grocery store-sure. However within a short bus ride or easy car trip there are plenty of grocery stores. You can drive from one place in L to any other place in 15 minutes or less most of the time. Even the poor areas of town appear to have cars parked all along the streets so....Not really buying that. Allied cab will take you anywhere too. It is HQ in the central area of town. I'll go take a look at the leakage areas.

Our Huge GAFO surplus explains most of the negs in electronics, clothing and health/beauty as all these segments are very strong at WalMart and other large discounters common in L. There is heavy overlap in those.

And this just in on food.

Shoppers Going Out of Channel - Industry News - Retail Leader

Driving 10 minutes to go to the grocery store when one lives in the center of town is not too enticing- hence the overabundance of convenience stores in some parts of town. A bus ride to a grocery store takes even longer than a car ride and a cab will stick you for 15-20 dollars. There is an area between Kroger on Boonsboro and Downtown that has a huge void, and it does include some rather valuable real estate as well as a higer priced college. Food Lion was right in the middle of that area until the city closed part of the road and made ingress/egress very difficult. Sales figures for the store dropped drastically. With the closure in place for almost two years, Food Lion closed down. Seems like there could be a great opportunity for one of the Wal-Mart Neighborhood Markets. They have been opening and developing in NC, and have recently announced three in Greenville, NC, an area that is very similar to ours demographically. I have a college class working on a marketing research project to that end. I still think there will be development at the US 501/221 intersection and English, the owner of the large parcel at that site has begun doing some excavation along the rear portion of the tract. Another note- a person in Kroger management said that a Kroger Marketplace or a large Kroger Superstore has been discussed with developers at the US 221/501 site after the closure of their old smaller store on Linkhorne Rd.