51% of San Diego "city" is suburban

[oddstray]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

San Diego's middle class is long gone and the city has no interest in retaining them. They are far more interested in subsidizing housing for the poor while building an exclusive playground for wealthy transients of all ages. Without middle class jobs, there is no real need for middle class housing.

That's a quite extreme and dire point of view!

San Diego's middle class lives in places like Penasquitos and Mira Mesa and Bonita. They work in places like Sorrento Valley and Rancho Bernardo (and I don't know where Eastlake folks work). The reported demise of San Diego's middle class is exaggerated.

[The Flying Dutchman]

Developers subsidize affordable housing at the request of the city as a compromise for reduced fees. They can, however, choose to opt out instead. I think you've got it mixed up, however: They are far more interested in subsidizing the rich and appeasing the poor.

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by oddstray

That's a quite extreme and dire point of view!

San Diego's middle class lives in places like Penasquitos and Mira Mesa and Bonita. They work in places like Sorrento Valley and Rancho Bernardo (and I don't know where Eastlake folks work). The reported demise of San Diego's middle class is exaggerated.

Not dire or extreme... just the natural order of things.

San Diego's existing middle class is aging out. The people replacing them are largely much wealthier. In most cases the boomers who make up the majority of the 'old' middle class will age in their homes, keeping housing supply very low and home prices well out of reach of the 'new' middle class. 2 scientists making 100k each is not 'middle class' anymore, but that's the type of job & income it takes to buy into a 'middle class' area like Penaquitos or Bonita (not so much Mira Mesa, which to me is only marginally a middle class area)

Middle class baby boomers are on average far wealthier than their gen x and millenial counterparts, and that trend will likely accellerate as middle class jobs give way to mcJobs. The winners will be the small but important group of highly educated, high income folks who can afford to stay here for the long haul. Everyone else will be renters - that will be the most important trend for the next 10 years, especially for property owners.

[The Flying Dutchman]

I usually don't agree with Sass but everything he says is true.

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by The Flying Dutchman

I usually don't agree with Sass but everything he says is true.

We probably agree more than you think... just have different opinions on whether these things are good or bad :-)

My prediction - the majority of housing in SD built in the next ten years will be luxury multi-family rentals, with the majority (90%+) of units being freeway-adjacent and the remainder urban infill. Existing SD residents will fight density in already-built-out areas tooth and nail (i.e. One Paseo), leaving developers to move up and out on the freeway corridors and around job centers and commercial districts where they can build faux Tuscan mega-plexes without a peep from the neighbors. (i.e. Downtown, Sorrento Valley, Rancho Bernardo Mira Mesa, etc). That's the workforce housing, transit-centric density everyone wants, right? I guess so, as long as you want to live in an apartment.

[docmcstuffin]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

We probably agree more than you think... just have different opinions on whether these things are good or bad :-)

My prediction - the majority of housing in SD built in the next ten years will be luxury multi-family rentals, with the majority (90%+) of units being freeway-adjacent and the remainder urban infill. Existing SD residents will fight density in already-built-out areas tooth and nail (i.e. One Paseo), leaving developers to move up and out on the freeway corridors and around job centers and commercial districts where they can build faux Tuscan mega-plexes without a peep from the neighbors. (i.e. Downtown, Sorrento Valley, Rancho Bernardo Mira Mesa, etc). That's the workforce housing, transit-centric density everyone wants, right? I guess so, as long as you want to live in an apartment.

I agree with that prediction. Except, like you stated in your first sentence, I view these growth as a good thing, not a bad thing.

I saw on the news that the prediction is that average rent in SD will reach $2k by 2020, which mean it will double what it was in 2010. That's with all these projects going on to increase density. Can you imagine if we don't build theses higher density developments? Your middle class will be paying much more for rent closer to work or they would have to live in Temecula and commute 1+ hr/day.

[Pedro2000]

I think the challenge going forward is that if you make $150K+ per year, will most actually stick around SD long term? SD doesn't seem to add big companies or these jobs often, so there is a limited supply as it is. And once people start families, is there a big reason besides the weather to stick around?

A 32 year old making $150K per year with a spouse who makes $100K per year and two kids doesn't actually need to stay or live in SD to make that money. In fact, may might make more elsewhere and have more opportunities.

It will be interesting to see the changes in the coming years because SD seems to be against building for the future in many areas and big companies are more likely to move out than in, so how many professional 32 year olds will really just move for the weather? Look at this forum. Many of the people moving here are bringing in $10/Hr careers, not $150K per year. It might wind up a place where most of the professionals have no desire to actually work or stay here. Or you just have a bunch of wealthy sales and marketing people starting companies that don't actually do anything or produce anything. And don't really hire all that many people and don't pay them much.