What will it take to change the cost of housing? (San Diego: 2014, house prices)

[Compuhi]

Originally Posted by sd92101

Only DUMB money would buy a house today. Young people aren't buying houses because they are wise not to buy at this point, not because they dumb.
The Fed has been faking recovery with unprecedented easing and feeding ignorant people with tons of ignorant superstitions about their powers in replacement for sound reasoning and capitalism and economic understanding. One reason the Fed is scared of raising rates is money may move back towards bonds deflating the inflated stock and housing market of the cash stuck in it from exiting bonds.

The sad fact is the Fed is engaging in purposeful asset price manipulation that inevitably will end in tragedy.
You would think the Fed's policies were being made by corrupt cartel bankers who never studied economics and were a 3rd world economy used to socialism and wanted just to make themselves rich. It should make every economist in the US from Keynesians to traditionalists sick to their stomach.

Thank you. Great post.

I remember in 2005/2006 one of my exes arguing with me that home prices will never come down in OC/SD. I argued many points, basically all pointing to how unsustainable it is based on many factors. And many people telling me i should buy asap and it's the best thing to do... Well, 2007/2008 occurred and we all know that story...

[someguy10]

Originally Posted by ucctgg

If you are comparing the two investments, wouldn't you need to subtract from the S&P portfolio the 50 years of rent you would have paid for a comparable house?

I was trying to point out that the example given (i.e., bought a house for $16K and could probably sell it now for $600K) was a bit misleading without proper context. I think most people would see that increase and think holy sh(*, residential real estate is the best investment ever. It is also a great example of the power of compounding interest--especially over a long period of time--regardless of source.

[Cardiff Kook]

Originally Posted by Compuhi

Thank you. Great post.

I remember in 2005/2006 one of my exes arguing with me that home prices will never come down in OC/SD. I argued many points, basically all pointing to how unsustainable it is based on many factors. And many people telling me i should buy asap and it's the best thing to do... Well, 2007/2008 occurred and we all know that story...

And what are the prices at now compared to then? Its cyclical...buy and hold for the long term..don't buy just to try and make a quick buck.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by Cardiff Kook

And what are the prices at now compared to then? Its cyclical...buy and hold for the long term..don't buy just to try and make a quick buck.

Yes, as I said earlier. It dips down but never goes down. There is an endless supply of people with the $ to buy here. I think many are being unrealistic in what they want. It may go down but when the market shifts there are usually bidding wars and the people that want it most will simply outbid everyone.


This is for coastal housing.

[Compuhi]

Originally Posted by Cardiff Kook

And what are the prices at now compared to then? Its cyclical...buy and hold for the long term..don't buy just to try and make a quick buck.

Agreed and exactly my point. Just like any investment, buy low, sell high. Great selling time for many of the homeowners in the area

[Cardiff Kook]

Originally Posted by Compuhi

Agreed and exactly my point. Just like any investment, buy low, sell high. Great selling time for many of the homeowners in the area

Not my point at all but OK

[NYSD1995]

My prediction - the next 20 years will mark a shift away from home ownership and towards renting in high cost, high income areas and boutique markets like SD. This will be due to a number of factors but the biggest being lack of supply. While many millenials, particularly those who choose to have kids, will vote with their feet and move to lower-cost areas, the trend with their generation seems to be away from owning things (homes, cars) and away from having children, which will just drive even more demand in the most expensive areas.

So, I expect a whole lot more luxury apartments in transit-centric locations, while even lowly traditional SFH neighborhoods continue to gentrify and get more expensive.

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

Housing here is 3 times what I paid in 98. Want to blow your mind, what is the percent change from 16K to 600K which is what my neighbors bought and sold at.

Or, you can just sit and watch it go up. It dips down but never goes down.

I saw prices on some homes fall >50% after the big bubble. That's not a dip.

[GuyInSD]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

I saw prices on some homes fall >50% after the big bubble. That's not a dip.

Rule #1 of Real Estate - don't buy in sh*t areas...

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by GuyInSD

Rule #1 of Real Estate - don't buy in sh*t areas...

Yup, buy the nastiest house in the best hood you can buy into.