SANDAG: Housing Crunch Is Not Going Away Anytime Soon (San Diego: for rent, condo)

[snpdragr]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

Nice, the "do nothing" option as justified by "declining quality of life" and supposed "100-story apartment buildings with 2am traffic"

Fear tactics fueled by the privilege to by selfish. Nothing more, nothing less.

I don't think it's fair to call people who don't want development selfish. You could equally say that people who want to put up massive high-rises or want rent-control are selfish. Thinking that anybody in this debate isn't motivated by self-interest would be a mistake in my opinion.

In anycase, if you want to move the needle on housing prices you'll always get resistance unless you address concerns of existing homeowners. Tarring them as selfish and privileged will only make them more set in their resistance.

[jnojr]

Originally Posted by newgensandiego

Nice, the "do nothing" option as justified by "declining quality of life" and supposed "100-story apartment buildings with 2am traffic"

Fear tactics fueled by the privilege to by selfish. Nothing more, nothing less.

Where else are all of these people supposed to go? How many people do you believe can cram into San Diego? If there are to be no huge apartment buildings, do they go out in "sprawl"? If so, how do you expect them to get between home and work?

In fact, it's your position that's driven by selfishness... "I want to live at the beach, I cannot afford to pay for it, so it must be provided to me, no matter the effect on anyone else." Mine is driven by reality... San Diego doesn't have much developable land, and what there is is far away. We live in a desert and don't have the water. The roads are already overcrowded. Buses and bikes and trolleys and trains will never be a useful option for the vast majority of people here.

You do not always have to "do something". It's perfectly acceptable to maintain the status quo and try to prevent further degradation of conditions. More people and more building will only lead to a degraded standard of living for those of us already here. So why not just say no, even if it was "selfish" to do so?

[C2BP]

All you have to do is keep raising interest rates and housing prices will collapse just as it was back in 2008. Currently mortgage interest rates are at 4.5%. If rates go over 5% it's all over with inflated housing prices. Demand is non existant and NAR “month’s supply” figures are at the exact level as in Bubble 1.0, before the crash. Americans have stopped buying homes long time ago because it's overinflated and expensive. Because of criminal FED policies Americans cant afford to buy a house in their own country anymore, not just in SD, but everywhere else.

A “housing market recovery” and “house-price recovery” are two different things. We never had real housing market recovery. Housing today is more unaffordable than in 2006 and this was caused by cheap and easy debt and liquidity that made its way to houses for speculation versus a place to live. This current housing bubble 2.0 was driven by a relative “handful” of “unorthodox” participants: insti’s, foreigners, high-tech workers, imported workers, private speculators, and less price-sensitive buyers in search of yield, laundering money, parking cash, and flipping. This current housing bubble 2.0 will end the same way as 1.0.

It’s Not Different This Time!!!

[sdlife619]

Originally Posted by snpdragr

Where do these people live in cities that are more expensive than SD (there are a lot of them): Vancouver, SF Bay Area, Los Angeles, Honolulu, NYC, etc.

The hood for the rest of their lives! Not what I call the American dream either. I bet many of them are struggling up to their eye balls are all unhappy because of it.

Some people I’m sure would leave SD in a heartbeat if they could afford to do so, and have a job lined up someplace else, but unfortunately the poor can’t do that as they are stuck here compared to a middle class family that has the financial means to get out of town which is actually happening in SD at a accelerated rate.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by C2BP

All you have to do is keep raising interest rates and housing prices will collapse just as it was back in 2008. Currently mortgage interest rates are at 4.5%. If rates go over 5% it's all over with inflated housing prices. Demand is non existant and NAR “month’s supply” figures are at the exact level as in Bubble 1.0, before the crash. Americans have stopped buying homes long time ago because it's overinflated and expensive. Because of criminal FED policies Americans cant afford to buy a house in their own country anymore, not just in SD, but everywhere else.

A “housing market recovery” and “house-price recovery” are two different things. We never had real housing market recovery. Housing today is more unaffordable than in 2006 and this was caused by cheap and easy debt and liquidity that made its way to houses for speculation versus a place to live. This current housing bubble 2.0 was driven by a relative “handful” of “unorthodox” participants: insti’s, foreigners, high-tech workers, imported workers, private speculators, and less price-sensitive buyers in search of yield, laundering money, parking cash, and flipping. This current housing bubble 2.0 will end the same way as 1.0.

It’s Not Different This Time!!!

The AVERAGE interest rate in the 80s was 17% and people still moved here and bought regardless. We are a long, long way from that.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

The AVERAGE interest rate in the 80s was 17% and people still moved here and bought regardless. We are a long, long way from that.

The reality is that few homes are on the market because no one wants to move. If prices dropped even fewer homes would be on the market as no one wants to lose money on their house. The hope a crash will help some is stupid. It will not as it would hurt as many as it helped.

[BBslider001]

Originally Posted by RosieSD

Actually, I think they also tried in the 70s and 80s in areas like Normal Heights, City Heights and North Park. That's how we ended up with so many lovely two story cinderblock complexes in a lot of that area.

I think one of the issues is that the perception of a "home" hasn't changed much since the 1950s. People are OK with apartments when they're young and single or old and retired. But, *most* people in the middle still picture "the American dream" as a three bedroom detached house with a garage. That would have to change to get enough people into apartments/condos/townhomes.

This is absolutely true and well put. I haven't heard anyone say this yet,but I have thought it for awhile.

[BBslider001]

A lot of your points are moot here. You guys that "bought when I was 25, shoulda done like me" are now posting to people who are 25-30 and simply can't afford it. No need to look down your nose with a "I don't know what your problem is, I got mine" attitude. I am happy for you guys, seriously. I know how great it is to reside in SD County. But the job market and incomes simply aren't plentiful like they used to be and home ownership is a fantasy. It has NOTHING to do with bad choices or being irresponsible or being stupid. It has everything to do with you got in at the right time and someone else didn't. That has no bearing on someone's choices or desires to own a home. The BEST job I had in Carlsbad paid $55k a year? Think a bank is going to give me a mortgage on an $850k house? Never. And that position would maybe, MAYBE top out at $75k....still not enough to own anywhere in SD County.

Some of us had to leave where we grew up. Sure, I could have bought in O'Side in the late 90s or early 2000s when homes were at $200k, but a Paramedic doesn't make enough to get a loan on that much. Ask me how I know. 745 credit score, NO debt, car paid for, no credit cards, and they STILL said no. Should I give up my job, very good job, that I loved and paid dearly for to get certified, so I can go find some job that doesn't exist so I can buy a home? Show me the way. You can't....because there wasn't one. SD County went on a hiring freeze for fire cadets, and that still wouldn't have been a bump enough on salary to get a mortgage. Force my wife to get a better higher paying job? That STILL wouldn't have been enough, even if she could have, but being an architect in a county where they were not really needed was a bit of a problem. It's called "house poor". Ever heard of it? It's a banker term, specifically a mortgage broker term.

My point? Quit being a jerk to those of us that had to leave our home because even rent got too high to live stress free. I could go on and on about people that gave up homes in quaint neighborhoods and moved into a studio while they turned their home into a vacay rental because they didn't want to leave California. The housing crisis is obviously a real and unfixable problem for CA natives or their wouldn't be threads like this for people to be a jerk to others to begin with.

[TacoSoup]

Originally Posted by BBslider001

The BEST job I had in Carlsbad paid $55k a year? Think a bank is going to give me a mortgage on an $850k house? Never. And that position would maybe, MAYBE top out at $75k....still not enough to own anywhere in SD County.

Some of us had to leave where we grew up. Sure, I could have bought in O'Side in the late 90s or early 2000s when homes were at $200k, but a Paramedic doesn't make enough to get a loan on that much. Ask me how I know. 745 credit score, NO debt, car paid for, no credit cards, and they STILL said no.

I don’t know the whole story, but I find it very hard to believe you couldn’t get a $200K mortgage making $55K a year having a 745 credit score, and no debt. You could easily get that now, and they were handing out mortgages in the late 90’s/early 2000’s off of paystubs, not tax returns.

You still can afford to buy in San Diego county on that salary, especially with two incomes in that range, it’s just not gonna be a $850K house near the coast.

Originally Posted by BBslider001

It's called "house poor". Ever heard of it? It's a banker term, specifically a mortgage broker term.

I’m not saying this applied to you and your wife, but a lot of people like to use that term as a reason not to give up their toys, trips, and vices. They choose to continue to rent because it’s cheaper(at the time), go out all the time, while not saving towards a down payment, and then complain about not being able to afford a house. Trust me, I’ve known plenty.

[BBslider001]

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

I don’t know the whole story, but I find it very hard to believe you couldn’t get a $200K mortgage making $55K a year having a 745 credit score, and no debt. You could easily get that now, and they were handing out mortgages in the late 90’s/early 2000’s off of paystubs, not tax returns.

You still can afford to buy in San Diego county on that salary, especially with two incomes in that range, it’s just not gonna be a $850K house near the coast.




I’m not saying this applied to you and your wife, but a lot of people like to use that term as a reason not to give up their toys, trips, and vices. They choose to continue to rent because it’s cheaper(at the time), go out all the time, while not saving towards a down payment, and then complain about not being able to afford a house. Trust me, I’ve known plenty.

And you have proven my point and didn't hear a word I said. Find it hard to believe all you want to. You are right about one thing. You don't know the whole story even though I laid out a very personal part of it. You're right. I messed up and made bad decisions and I'm just stupid. Oh wait, there are a lot of stupid people I guess because I watched many of my coworkers and friends go through the same thing. Sure, I'd say about 2 percent of them went back to school and got a much higher paying job after $100k in student loans to become PAs or techies of some sort, but what about the other 98 percent? Not everyone can be an IT guy, or a techie, or a whatever that pays enough to live in SD county without being strapped. And yeah we had a down payment for FHA loan...more than the required. I am not sure why they said no...multiple times. Maybe you can tell me? I'm not a banker, so I couldn't tell you. Apparently, 50% of one's income towards a dwelling is considered bad for business. Who knew?