If People Don't Take Quarantine Seriously, This Will Only Drag Out Longer (San Diego: apartments, neighborhoods)

[lostsoul359]

This Week Is ‘Crucial’ for San Diego's Virus Fight, Scientist Warns:

If San Diegans don’t stay home now, says one local scientist who studies viruses, we’ll pay a deadly price.

This is a do-or-die week in San Diego for fighting the coronavirus here, and it’s crucial for everyone to stay home, says a local scientist whose stark warning about the potential for catastrophe spread across social media on Tuesday.

“There are going to be a lot of people carrying and shedding the virus sometime this week … Taking everything together, this is a terrible week to be around other people,” wrote Forest Rohwer, a scientist who studies viruses at San Diego State University, in an email to colleagues that spread beyond the college community to websites like Facebook and Reddit.

Rohwer, who studies viruses in people and in the ocean, didn’t intend for the email to reach the public. “It was just for academics in my lab, honestly, to tell them what it looks like and where we’re at,” he said. But he’s happy to elaborate on why he thinks the next few days are so important in the battle against the coronavirus in San Diego.

In an interview, he said this is an “inflection point” — “a crucial week to flatten the curve” — because models suggest that California in general and San Diego specifically are about two weeks away from exploding past the capacity of hospitals to treat coronavirus patients.

“If we don’t want to let this balloon out of control, we need to stop it literally right now,” he said. The growth in cases “becomes impossible to stop when it really starts going. That’s how those exponentials work.”

He’s talking about how coronavirus cases have been growing exponentially in some parts of the world – doubling, then doubling again at an even faster rate until thousands are sick and dying. In the United States, according to CNN, deaths from the virus doubled from 100 to 200 over three days last week, then doubled again to 400 over two days by Sunday. Another doubling – to 800 – appears likely on Wednesday.

This week is important, he said, because models suggest that cases could overwhelm hospitals two weeks from now under some scenarios. It typically takes about two weeks for patients to need to be hospitalized after they’re infected, so this week is what he calls the “inflection point” that will decide whether we go down a road toward extreme sickness and death.

“The easiest way to think about it is to call it the point of no return, or a break point: A point in time where if too many people get infected, we won’t have enough hospital beds, and that means we’ll start having much higher death rates,” he said.

Rohwer pointed to the Covid Act Now model, created by a team of researchers, that estimates that California’s hospitals will become overwhelmed by April 7 — two weeks from now – if the state’s residents do nothing to prevent the spread of the virus. Nearly 800,000 Californians will die under this scenario.

Simply engaging in “social distancing” would push that date forward to April 19 and lead to an estimated 597,000 deaths. But the model estimates that hospitals won’t reach capacity before mid-summer if the state adopts a “shelter in place” strategy – which it has done – for three months. In this scenario, however, deaths in the state would reach 18,000.

San Diego County health officials are working on a model to predict local cases. But Dr. Wilma Wooten, the county’s top public health official, declined on Tuesday to tell reporters anything about what these efforts have produced.

As of Tuesday, San Diego County reported 242 cases of patients who tested positive for coronavirus and 45 total hospitalizations (possibly including patients who were released). Only 16 of the hospitalized patients were over the age of 60, and five were under 30. One resident has died in the county, and another resident died in another county.

What should we do this week? Stay away from other people, Rohrer said, and understand that we’re in a danger zone where what we do – or don’t do – matters not just to us but everyone else.

“We really are at that critical point,” he said.

https://www.voiceofsandiego.org/topi...ientist-warns/

[movedintime]

Originally Posted by bloom

Am I allowed to walk 5 miles around my neighborhood anymore, or not ?

As far as I know , you can do whatever you want. They are just asking the public to cooperate by staying in your home so everyone can go out for a walk again. Not just you.

[Mike930]

Originally Posted by movedintime

As far as I know , you can do whatever you want. They are just asking the public to cooperate by staying in your home so everyone can go out for a walk again. Not just you.

They also said it’s ok to go out for food, medical supplies and to exercise.

[Spartanacus]

Ridiculous that surfers can't even surf now. Does the virus swim and jump up onto other surfboards too now? I tell you what...they better knock this sort of stuff off (ticketing people for riding on the 56 bike path???) or this is going to escalate quickly and evolve into a whole different type of problem that law enforcement and the government cannot afford to have on their plate right now.

[mod cut]

[citizensadvocate]

I understand if the penalities are placed on sick or proven positive "guilty" individuals who willfully escape their quarantine facilities.

Though healthy individuals should be allowed to build up their immune systems by continuing some outdoor activities.

Closing or blocking parking spaces already does do wonders in terms of crowd control already. Oceanside is doing just that. I never liked that city but it appears for now they have a little more common sense.

I be curious whether boating is still allowed maybe people can launch surfboards from boats instead of beaches instead. Or do other water activities from boats too?
Though I guess people who "spit" a lot on the beach a lot probably helped get the beaches closed too as others might contact contaminated sand particularly kids who play on the sand, building sand castles where someone had spat on the sand a few minutes ago. I personally seen people carrying surfboards spitting along the sidewalks too. I am guessing such behavior is probably what lead to a crack down on surfing/other water activities in Spain. Ruining it for everyone else.
Though does it mean that should we add spitting into the COVID 19 ticketable/arrestable offense list? why or why not?

[oddstray]

Originally Posted by Spartanacus

Ridiculous that surfers can't even surf now. Does the virus swim and jump up onto other surfboards too now? I tell you what...they better knock this sort of stuff off (ticketing people for riding on the 56 bike path???) or this is going to escalate quickly and evolve into a whole different type of problem that law enforcement and the government cannot afford to have on their plate right now.

[mod cut]

The 56 bike path is too narrow to be able to keep the safe 6' distance when passing other bicyclists going in the opposite direction. It is perfectly sensible - and wise - to close the bike path for the present. People riding bicycles are often working hard, and panting, and therefore expelling loads of respiratory droplets. That is *not* a place to stay safe from this virus.

Closing beaches and parks happened because of people who simply refused to practice social distancing. If there weren't so many careless, clueless jerks running around, that wouldn't have happened. Don't blame that one on heavy-handed governing, blame it on the covidiots.

There are still plenty of places one can walk and bicycle without endangering others.

[Mike930]

Originally Posted by oddstray

The 56 bike path is too narrow to be able to keep the safe 6' distance when passing other bicyclists going in the opposite direction. It is perfectly sensible - and wise - to close the bike path for the present. People riding bicycles are often working hard, and panting, and therefore expelling loads of respiratory droplets. That is *not* a place to stay safe from this virus.

Closing beaches and parks happened because of people who simply refused to practice social distancing. If there weren't so many careless, clueless jerks running around, that wouldn't have happened. Don't blame that one on heavy-handed governing, blame it on the covidiots.

There are still plenty of places one can walk and bicycle without endangering others.

Very true and I love that term you coined.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by oddstray

The 56 bike path is too narrow to be able to keep the safe 6' distance when passing other bicyclists going in the opposite direction. It is perfectly sensible - and wise - to close the bike path for the present. People riding bicycles are often working hard, and panting, and therefore expelling loads of respiratory droplets. That is *not* a place to stay safe from this virus.

Closing beaches and parks happened because of people who simply refused to practice social distancing. If there weren't so many careless, clueless jerks running around, that wouldn't have happened. Don't blame that one on heavy-handed governing, blame it on the covidiots.

There are still plenty of places one can walk and bicycle without endangering others.

Black Mt had about 1000 people on it all day long. I saw a FB post from someone hiking up there. Nutz.

[Clark Fork Fantast]

I thought all parks were closed? Hard to find a place to walk the dogs now--the narrow neighborhood sidewalks are full of people walking their dogs...

[oddstray]

Originally Posted by Mike930

Very true and I love that term you coined.

It's not original from me. I've seen it in several places around the web.