Are there any established middle class black communities in the Bay Area? (Oakland: how much, homes)

[Perma Bear]

Technically every neighborhood in Oakland is middle/upper middle class. After all the cheapest homes are 300k which would be upper middle class in most cities in the country.

[bentobox34]

3 factors: 1) The Bay Area has a much smaller black population, as a percentage of the population than similar size metro areas back east and in the south; 2) The Bay Area is less segregated than those metro areas; 3) The Bay Area has a vanishingly small (and decreasing) middle class, of any race. Put those all together and you don't see as many neighborhoods that are predominantly black middle class as you might in other areas.

[WizardOfRadical]

Outside of the extras like Oakley, there are not really middle class areas in the bay. Let alone black ones.

Blacks have been fleeing Oakland for the last 15-20 years, and it has sped up with the tech boom. Next census in 2020 will have Oakland's black population at under 20%.

[CityGuy88]

Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical

Outside of the extras like Oakley, there are not really middle class areas in the bay. Let alone black ones.

Blacks have been fleeing Oakland for the last 15-20 years, and it has sped up with the tech boom. Next census in 2020 will have Oakland's black population at under 20%.

A sad truth, and something inconceivable just 10-15 years ago. But I suppose the last few censuses have been consistent enough to support your point.

In 1990, Oakland was 44% Black.
By 2000, that percentage had decreased to just under 36%
By 2010, 28%.

That's literally a decrease of 8 percentage points every 10 years. So by 2020, unless something drastic happens to stop the combination of reasons that Blacks have continued to lose population in the city, it's not hard to imagine just 20% of the population being Black. What's scary is it may be even less than that.

[Oakformonday]

Originally Posted by CityGuy88

A sad truth, and something inconceivable just 10-15 years ago. But I suppose the last few censuses have been consistent enough to support your point.

In 1990, Oakland was 44% Black.
By 2000, that percentage had decreased to just under 36%
By 2010, 28%.

That's literally a decrease of 8 percentage points every 10 years. So by 2020, unless something drastic happens to stop the combination of reasons that Blacks have continued to lose population in the city, it's not hard to imagine just 20% of the population being Black. What's scary is it may be even less than that.

Between 2000 and 2010 Oakland lost 25% of her black people. After 2010 that rate of loss is at least that percentage but most likely higher.

[CityGuy88]

Originally Posted by Oakformonday

Between 2000 and 2010 Oakland lost 25% of her black people. After 2010 that rate of loss is at least that percentage but most likely higher.

Yes, but we're talking percentage points. As has been much publicized, Oakland lost over 33,000 Black residents between 2000 and 2010 (the 25% decline you mentioned). But Oakland was losing Black residents well before the year 2000, as there were over 21,000 more Black residents in Oakland in 1990 than in 2000. The thing is, nobody was really paying attention in the 90s, and back then tech workers, by and large, were still isolating themselves to SF, the peninsula, and the South Bay. In any event, my point is it's hard to say for sure that the decline will go against the trend over the last 20 years (meaning we can't be too sure it will go higher than that 8 percentage point trend).

And according to this article, there is apparently data that suggests the decline may have been "halted" in the last 6 years (Link: http://http://www.latimes.com/opinio...501-story.html). Of course, the article doesn't go into depth on exactly how the decline has been halted (or if the "halt" just means that people have found a way to stay in the Bay through moving to Antioch and Fairfield as opposed to Stockton and Sacramento, thus retaining people in the contiguous Bay Area). But we can speculate all day. The best answer we'll get is from time, and with the 2020 census just around the corner we'll have our answer sooner than later.

[drewjube]

I'm not sure what you mean by people not paying attention in the '90s. During the '90s, I lived in places in East and Central Contra Costa and the demographic shift of the black population from Oakland to Antioch, and other further out suburbs, was noticeable and talked about.

[Ultrarunner]

In the 90's I managed a lot of subsidized housing in Oakland...

Almost all the homes and apartments were occupied by African American families.

When Section 8 introduced Voucher Portability almost all moved over a 3 year period.

I did not ask anyone to move... it was strictly tenant motivation.

The top spots for my former Section 8 tenants are Antioch, Hayward and Vallejo...

Newer housing stock and newer schools...

I did find it interesting that several moving citing schools have been very disappointed... same problems only a different address.

It was also interesting that almost no African American vacancies were filled by African American families... mostly Hispanic or Asian or mixed.

In my childhood neighborhood... which was almost 100% African American each home that is sold has gone Asian or White with many LGBT first time homeowners...

Oakland is a city that is constantly in flux...

[WizardOfRadical]

Blacks came for jobs. Those jobs are gone. That's why they left.

Immigrants do things different. They will live multi generation/families in one home. They are used to it, and they put all their resources together.

[CityGuy88]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

In the 90's I managed a lot of subsidized housing in Oakland...

Almost all the homes and apartments were occupied by African American families.

When Section 8 introduced Voucher Portability almost all moved over a 3 year period.

I did not ask anyone to move... it was strictly tenant motivation.

The top spots for my former Section 8 tenants are Antioch, Hayward and Vallejo...

Newer housing stock and newer schools...

I did find it interesting that several moving citing schools have been very disappointed... same problems only a different address.

It was also interesting that almost no African American vacancies were filled by African American families... mostly Hispanic or Asian or mixed.

In my childhood neighborhood... which was almost 100% African American each home that is sold has gone Asian or White with many LGBT first time homeowners...

Oakland is a city that is constantly in flux...

Exactly. People left Oakland thinking they were leaving the problems behind, not realizing that all that was happening was there were 'little-Oaklands' springing up in Antioch and Pittsburg. The root causes of why neighborhoods like East and West Oakland became notorious for the issues we all know about don't necessarily go away with a new zip code.