Where do you see these Bay Area cities in 20 years? (San Jose: condo, homes)

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by PeaceOwl

Very interesting post to read, thanks.
For a person planning on moving to the SF area, the outskirts are very hard for a newbie to have foresight in which area is a smarter place to live.

We are retiring and moving closer to our daughter/family in SF. At our age we do not want to go in over our heads in debt. Got a great price in 5 days on our home in Orange County, and are ready to move, but it's risky investment, especially at our age when you know long term doesn't work for 65 years olds.

Was it a hard decision to give up your Prop 13 base year in Orange County?

[Dave Coe]

One of the key issues about how cities will change is how they will address the housing shortage. In a lot areas such as the Silicon Valley and Peninsula there is strong NIMBY sentiment about building high density developments. The only place building high-rises is SOMA in SF and to a lesser degree Oakland.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

One of the key issues about how cities will change is how they will address the housing shortage. In a lot areas such as the Silicon Valley and Peninsula there is strong NIMBY sentiment about building high density developments. The only place building high-rises is SOMA in SF and to a lesser degree Oakland.

Agreed, this is a big regional issue. Also, it will be interesting to see how the interplay between high density housing development and transit/other infrastructure progresses over time.

An interesting development that's come out recently is the potential merger of ABAG (Association of Bay Area Governments) and the MTC (Metropolitan Transportation Commission). ABAG handles land development, and the MTC handles transit and other transportation planning, and them working together as one unit could have big implications on future planning in the Bay Area.

ABAG: ABAG-MTC Merger Reference Materials Archive

[cardinal2007]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

One of the key issues about how cities will change is how they will address the housing shortage. In a lot areas such as the Silicon Valley and Peninsula there is strong NIMBY sentiment about building high density developments. The only place building high-rises is SOMA in SF and to a lesser degree Oakland.

Downtown San Jose does not have a strong NIMBY sentiment, your assessment of Silicon Valley does not ring true, it is also not true that it is not building high-rises, developers are struggling to get financing in order and so they have only built 2 high rises last year, and are building 2 more now (With 2 more by the airport). That may not be as much as Oakland has currently under construction or built last year, but I wouldn't say that San Jose is not building high-rises, that is quite the stretch from the truth.

They also would be building a lot more if they could get financing or rents were as high as downtown Oakland or in SF. Rents on new apartments are barely around $3000/mo for a new 1bd, which is high, but apparently a struggle to get financing for. If they could charge apartment rents similar to Oakland or SF then all 10+ high rise proposals in downtown SJ would be breaking ground in the next few years, there is not NIMBY opposition to them, they just cost too much to build in comparison to what they can get for rent right now, so I am guessing only a few of those will become reality. High rise construction costs a lot of money hence why we don't see developers building more of it.

[ketch89]

Downtown San Jose is not analogous to Silicon Valley... It's just one small node in a sprawling region.

Yes, DTSJ is building, but Dave Coe's comment is applicable to literally every other technoburb on the peninsula. Even redwood city, which is probably the burb building the most dense housing, isn't building anything taller than 7 stories. Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and Mountain View are the worst offenders, the people that run those cities should be put in prison.

[Dave Coe]

Downtown San Jose also has a height limit due to the Àirport. The strongest NIMBY sentiment is in wealthy cities. I could see working class cities in the Peninsula and Easy Bay building high-rises in the future. Mission Bay in SF was a wasted opportunity. Even in parts of SOMA they are under building.

[cardinal2007]

Originally Posted by ketch89

Downtown San Jose is not analogous to Silicon Valley... It's just one small node in a sprawling region.

Yes, DTSJ is building, but Dave Coe's comment is applicable to literally every other technoburb on the peninsula. Even redwood city, which is probably the burb building the most dense housing, isn't building anything taller than 7 stories. Menlo Park, Palo Alto, and Mountain View are the worst offenders, the people that run those cities should be put in prison.

I interpreted the lack of modifier to mean all of Silicon Valley. Part of the 7 story issue, at least in San Jose is that high rise construction is a lot more expensive than midrise construction. Developers downtown are hoping that at least above a certain floor they can command a premium for being on a high floor, I think the economies are actually a lot more likely to work on in more expensive neighborhoods than in San Jose, though they may get blocked as you said.

Mountain View did elect a new pro housing city council, and are beginning to set up how to add up to 9000 units to North Bayshore. Change is possible, but it actually has to begin at the city level.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by cardinal2007

I interpreted the lack of modifier to mean all of Silicon Valley. Part of the 7 story issue, at least in San Jose is that high rise construction is a lot more expensive than midrise construction. Developers downtown are hoping that at least above a certain floor they can command a premium for being on a high floor, I think the economies are actually a lot more likely to work on in more expensive neighborhoods than in San Jose, though they may get blocked as you said.

Mountain View did elect a new pro housing city council, and are beginning to set up how to add up to 9000 units to North Bayshore. Change is possible, but it actually has to begin at the city level.

With all the wealth and housing shortages there is the demand. The key issues preventing highrises is NIMBYISM as well as Height restrictions due to the San Jose Airport.

[Dave Coe]

This is huge. Most of these residents will be upper middle class in a city that has traditionally been working class.

"Within the next 25 years, Concordians can expect approximately 25,000 new Concord residents."

https://contracostabee.com/plans-evo...e-development/

[sav858]

^maybe if that project ever gets going. Seems to get delayed time and time again, most recently because of the lobbying scandal or whatever. 25% of the housing has to be "affordable housing" too.