US Birth Rate Falls to 30-year low; Is the Evident in the Bay Area? (San Francisco: rent, mortgage)

[18Montclair]

Ive noticed far fewer kids in Oakland, Berkeley and Piedmont than when I was a kid. I know that SF now has more dogs than children.

This appears to be a national trend...

Originally Posted by CBS News

...Another notable finding: The current generation is getting further away from having enough children to replace itself.

The U.S. once was among a handful of developed countries with a fertility rate that ensured each generation had enough children to replace it.

The rate in the U.S. now stands less than the standard benchmark for replacement...

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/us-...rtility-rates/

Any thoughts as to why this is happening?

[HappyinCali]

I think with San Francisco the issue is costs and schools. The school lottery is not something a lot of people want to deal with, so when they do have kids they move to the burbs - like Marin County, Lamorinda etc. where kids go to their neighborhood school. In addition housing, large enough for kids, is expensive.

The other thing is that the demographic of the Bay Area is exactly the one that's having the fewest kids. Educated, both parents working, career driven. They have 1 MAYBE 2 kids.

I think the costs are relevant, although they are not unique to BA. Yeah, in other states daycare is cheaper, but salaries are lower, so as % of income, you are spending similar amounts on day care.

Anecdotally, a lot of our friends (including ourselves) don't have kids. That's not unique to SF. Our friends in Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas, also don't havekids and they are all past 30s. A lot are still single.

That's also an established, overall trend - people are getting married older and having kids later.

[gizmo980]

As mentioned above, the cost of living here is most likely one factor... it’s hard enough to support yourself in the Bay Area, let alone to raise children!

Also, women everywhere are waiting longer to have children, with the average age somewhere in the early-mid 30s now (compared to early-mid 20s in previous generations). That’s because we are now focusing on our own educations, then careers, before we consider starting a family. Our parents and grandparents were mostly focused on the latter, and assumed their husband would handle the financial needs. Can’t really count on that anymore, and even if we could, we might not WANT to be dependent on a man.

And with medical advances in fertility + longer lifespans, we’re actually able to wait longer... my best friend had her daughters at age 40 & 41, with no issues whatsoever. So yeah, those are my thoughts on the contributing factors.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Ive noticed far fewer kids in Oakland, Berkeley and Piedmont than when I was a kid. I know that SF now has more dogs than children.

This appears to be a national trend...



https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/us-...rtility-rates/

Any thoughts as to why this is happening?

Speaking of the US population at large, there are a lot more people staying single. In previous generations, the vast majority of people paired up, sooner or later. Now, more men and women are staying single, for various reasons. I guess that doesn't stop some women from having kids, but I think overall, it has a bearing on the lower population figures.

[likealady]

As a woman of child-bearing age, cost is definitely a huge factor for us. It's hard enough affording Bay Area rent or a mortgage as DINK. Many of my friends in lower COL states already have children. We also have to consider the possible career lull if we have to pull out of the workforce to raise children until they can go to pre-school or shell out daycare costs. Will we be able to easily jump back into a career after having a baby, will companies be hesitant to hire us because we have a young child, or will they be willing to go part-time with us for a while?

Others have mentioned people are remaining single until later on in life, but I think college is also playing a role. Not only in student loan debt, but also if a woman goes through 4 years or more of college many don't want to set the career on the backburner for children so soon.

I also think it's becoming more accepted to not have children. I know many of my millennial friends are very proud and vocal about not wanting kids.

[NOLA101]

Originally Posted by HappyinCali

Anecdotally, a lot of our friends (including ourselves) don't have kids. That's not unique to SF. Our friends in Atlanta, Nashville, Dallas, also don't havekids and they are all past 30s. A lot are still single.

The % of American women having kids actually hasn't dropped. It's the # of kids that has dropped.

So, in 1970, or whenever, around 90% of women had children at some point in their lives, same as today. But back then, 3 kids was typical, while now, 1 or maybe 2 kids is typical.

[peninsula_guy]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Ive noticed far fewer kids in Oakland, Berkeley and Piedmont than when I was a kid. I know that SF now has more dogs than children.

This appears to be a national trend...



https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/us-...rtility-rates/

Any thoughts as to why this is happening?

I think the reason is two fold:

1. For the higher income career focused type the main reason is delaying having kids for career reason. You can't have a lot of kids if you start in late 30s.

2. For society in general there is less of a cultural emphasis on getting married, staying married and raising kids. There are way too many entertainment options and being a traditional family is simply not cool anymore ...

Personally for me when I hit mid 30s the urge to become a dad became very strong and I was getting bored with the usual entertainment for child-free couples....

[clongirl]

This is an issue for the entire US--not just the Bay Area...

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/healt...-women-n874966

US Birth Rate Puzzle: Fertility Is Low Despite Good Economy | Fortune

[Dave Coe]

The issue is not so much the overall birth date but the specific birthrates by group. Illegal immigrants are having tons of kids, new Asian immigrants still but a strong emphasis on family. The problem is mainly that the well educated White population has little interest in starting families. Even Marin which is still mostly White has an ageing population. Central Contra Costa might be the exception but that is changing.

[WithDisp]

Higher Education directly correlates with less marriage and smaller family size.