Bay Area Cities that are rapidly ageing

[Valley Boy]

Originally Posted by JWilliams45

Some perspective: in the late 80s, the SF Chronicle ran a piece on how residents of San Mateo County – then the 5th richest county in the United States – were not moving every seven years (that was the national average until the late 00s); and, given how expensive the towns in the county were, their children were unable to afford to live near their parents while raising their children. Depending upon your knowledge of the subject and/or your point of view, the piece was either hilarious, a tear-jerker, old news, or of no consequence whatsoever.

At the time, this observer considered it to be one more piece of evidence that the inflation of the 70s had had an ongoing effect in terms of the increased concentration of wealth in our country. We can expect our recent increase in concentrations of wealth to be supercharged by the inflation we'll experience leading up to, and quite possibly, into the 30s. This process in America is just entering middle age, and the ride is going to be quite wild.

California has had slight higher housing costs since about the end of World War 2. But yeah, inflation of the 1970's shot CA real estate to the moon. And it's been significantly higher than the national average ever since. It just gets worse every year.

[Valley Boy]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

I was initially under the impression that Walnut Creek is very family oriented but the chart shows that it has one of the oldest populations in the region. It could be that the chart is counting just the downtown area.

Yeah, the last thing old rich white people want is school closures. So bussing in Clayton kids, who are nearly as rich seems like a win-win to keep the schools open.

My understanding is Clayton Valley is one of the few success stories of Charter High Schools. And it ranks a bit higher than it did 15 years ago, when it was not a charter. So most local parents opt for that becauee it is local. But enough parents are also opting to let their kids get bussed to Northgate High. Not a bad deal there, IMO.

[mattja]

Originally Posted by Valley Boy

At 800k for a townhouse in Concord?! Wow, that neighborhood better be zoned to Northgate High ( all Clayton Valley High hoods go to Northgate in WC, now that CVHS went belly up Charer).

Those townhomes are right next to El Monte Elementary School. So after El Monte, they will go to El Dorado Middle School and then Mt. Diablo or Concord HS.

As far as greatschool ratings,

El Monte Elementary School is 5
El Dorado Middle School is 2
Concord High School is 6
Mt. Diablo High School is 3

No way would I pay $800K for a townhouse in that part of Concord and send my children to those schools.

[Vision67]

Originally Posted by mattja

Those townhomes are right next to El Monte Elementary School. So after El Monte, they will go to El Dorado Middle School and then Mt. Diablo or Concord HS.

As far as greatschool ratings,

El Monte Elementary School is 5
El Dorado Middle School is 2
Concord High School is 6
Mt. Diablo High School is 3

No way would I pay $800K for a townhouse in that part of Concord and send my children to those schools.

I'll bet those townhouses sell primarily to people without children. There are plenty of retirees and empty nesters and childless young couples to buy those units.

A bigger detriment will be the recent doubling of mortgage rates. My guess is that may stop this development before it even gets going.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by Vision67

I'll bet those townhouses sell primarily to people without children. There are plenty of retirees and empty nesters and childless young couples to buy those units.

A bigger detriment will be the recent doubling of mortgage rates. My guess is that may stop this development before it even gets going.

I don't see how townhouses are bad for families as long as there is adequate space and decent schools nearby.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by Valley Boy

Yeah, the last thing old rich white people want is school closures. So bussing in Clayton kids, who are nearly as rich seems like a win-win to keep the schools open.

My understanding is Clayton Valley is one of the few success stories of Charter High Schools. And it ranks a bit higher than it did 15 years ago, when it was not a charter. So most local parents opt for that becauee it is local. But enough parents are also opting to let their kids get bussed to Northgate High. Not a bad deal there, IMO.

My impression is that Central Contra Costa County, including Walnut Creek, is one of the more family oriented areas of the Bay Area while Berkeley Hills and much of Marin seem more geriatric.

[mattja]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

My impression is that Central Contra Costa County, including Walnut Creek, is one of the more family oriented areas of the Bay Area while Berkeley Hills and much of Marin seem more geriatric.

This is all true, although, I will say Walnut Creek is probably the most geriatric city in Central Contra Costa County.

IMO, people who have Walnut Creek money also have Danville and Orinda money, and with Danville and Orinda, 100% of the public schools are excellent. They're like Palo Alto in that regard. The same is not true for Walnut Creek, which is stained by Mt. Diablo Unified. This would explain why Danville and Orinda have more residents under age 18 than any cities in Central Contra Costa.

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by mattja

This is all true, although, I will say Walnut Creek is probably the most geriatric city in Central Contra Costa County.

IMO, people who have Walnut Creek money also have Danville and Orinda money, and with Danville and Orinda, 100% of the public schools are excellent. They're like Palo Alto in that regard. The same is not true for Walnut Creek, which is stained by Mt. Diablo Unified. This would explain why Danville and Orinda have more residents under age 18 than any cities in Central Contra Costa.

The chart shows Walnut Creek as having a low number of families but also slightly increasing rather than declining. I was wondering if the chart was just counting the Downtown area which is more urban and a lot of new apartment construction. Walnut Creek also seems more diverse than those other cities.

[mattja]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

The chart shows Walnut Creek as having a low number of families but also slightly increasing rather than declining. I was wondering if the chart was just counting the Downtown area which is more urban and a lot of new apartment construction. Walnut Creek also seems more diverse than those other cities.

Walnut Creek is only slightly more diverse. WC is kind of like three cities. The north is less affluent and has the highest number of Latinos. The middle is more affluent and the south is affluent to very affluent. The diversity is mostly in the north.

[Dave Coe]

Share of population under 18-years-old in 2020 compared to 2010, among cities with at least 5,000 people




At 27.3% San Ramon is at the top.
10%15%20%25%30%
29.6%
San Ramon27.3%
30.5%
Bay Point27.1%
30.5%
Oakley26.7%
28.3%
Piedmont26.5%
Dublin22.4%
26.3%
31.2%
Brentwood26.2%
25.6%
Kentfield25.6%
31.9%
East Palo Alto25.4%
Corte Madera25.2%
25.3%
25.6%
Orinda24.9%
28.3%
San Pablo24.8%
29.2%
Dixon24.7%
26.6%
Hillsborough24.4%
28.1%
Antioch24.3%
24.9%
Lafayette24.3%
26.6%
Danville24.3%
27.1%
Fairfield24.2%
27.5%
Pittsburg24.2%
28.6%
Morgan Hill24.2%
28.3%
American Canyon24.2%
27.1%
Pleasanton24%
27.8%
North Fair Oaks24%
26.1%
Los Altos24%
27.6%
Cupertino23.9%
27.8%
Ashland23.9%
28.8%
El Sobrante23.8%
24%
Tamalpais-Homestead Valley23.8%
26.9%
Cherryland23.6%
24.9%
Fremont23.4%
23.6%
San Carlos23.4%
28.2%
Alum Rock23.4%
27.5%
Suisun23.3%
24.4%
Menlo Park23.2%
Burlingame21.7%
22.6%
24%
Tiburon town22.6%
26.9%
Discovery Bay22.5%
Los Gatos22.3%
22.5%
23.7%
Mill Valley22.5%
23.3%
San Anselmo22.4%
28.1%
Windsor town22.3%
25.7%
Alamo22.3%
26.5%
Boyes Hot Springs22.3%
25.5%
Livermore22.2%
24.9%
Richmond22.2%
24.5%
Rodeo22.1%
23.9%
Lucas Valley-Marinwood21.9%
24.2%
Larkfield-Wikiup21.9%
Moraga town21.7%
21.9%
23.4%
Palo Alto21.8%
Belmont20.9%
21.7%
22.9%
Saranap21.6%
25%
Albany21.6%
23.3%
Vacaville21.6%
23.4%
Castro Valley21.6%
22.6%
Foster21.4%
23.8%
Cloverdale21.3%
24.3%
San Lorenzo21.3%
24.5%
Hayward21.2%
22.6%
Calistoga21.2%
24.8%
San Jose21.1%
23.4%
Santa Rosa21.1%
22.9%
Milpitas21.1%
25.3%
San Martin20.7%
23.9%
Tara Hills20.7%
22.9%
Concord20.7%
25.4%
Newark20.6%
24.4%
Clayton20.6%
24.5%
Napa20.6%
22.7%
Novato20.5%
San Rafael19.3%
20.5%
23.2%
Vallejo20.5%
23.2%
Petaluma20.4%
23.5%
Woodside20.4%
23.7%
Redwood20.4%
24.3%
Blackhawk20.3%
22.4%
Sunnyvale20.1%
20.7%
Alameda19.9%
21%
Campbell19.9%
24%
Saratoga19.9%
20.8%
San Mateo19.8%
23.4%
Benicia19.8%
20.9%
Rohnert Park19.7%
20.1%
Millbrae19.5%
21.9%
Cotati19.5%
19.8%
Pleasant Hill19.5%
20.5%
Martinez19.3%
19.7%
Mountain View19.3%
21.3%
El Sobrante19.2%
22.9%
Los Altos Hills19.2%
21.3%
Santa Clara19.2%
22%
St. Helena19.2%
24.2%
Union City19.1%
21.3%
Oakland19.1%
22.8%
Hercules19.1%
20.7%
Fairview19.1%
22.3%
San Leandro19.1%
22.6%
Healdsburg19%
20.7%
Pacifica19%
22.3%
Atherton19%
22.4%
Half Moon Bay18.8%
21.7%
South San Francisco18.6%
19.3%
Fairfax town18.5%
21%
San Bruno18.4%
22%
East Foothills18.3%
Larkspur18.3%
18.3%
El Cerrito17.4%
17.9%
20.5%
Pinole17.9%
18.4%
Kensington17.7%
20.5%
Sebastopol17.5%
21.9%
El Granada17.5%
19.4%
Daly City17.2%
Walnut Creek16.7%
17%
18%
Sonoma15.7%
13.4%
San Francisco13%
Berkeley12.3%
12.4%
15.6%
Rio Vista11.8%
Emeryville10.2%
10.8%
Sausalito8.7%
9.5%
Source: US Census