Sarasota is the 6th most overvalued housing market in FL (Miami: condominiums, buying)

[beach43ofus]

I don't see any big movements up or down ahead. We are in steady price decline now due to interest rates rising, & off-season (not many buyers are here in the 105 degree "feels like" heat).

In October when snow bird wannabe's return, demand will increase slowly (w/ prices) because most of them pay cash. High interest rates will mean modest demand & price growth overall though.

And yes, covid spiked our market, so that pulled a lot of future buyers into the present (last 2.5 years), so that will also smooth out future sales/pricing.

As Hb posts above, inventories are still skinny, so that will prevent large price drops.

There are lots of opposing forces pulling against each other, so I think we're in for a long boring ride of moderate ups, and downs for single family homes & 1-2 story multi family housing.

Due to the new condo concrete repair reserve laws, I think 3+ story condo prices will be the biggest downward price mover. That could push demand/prices upward for 1-2 story multi-family dwellings as well.

[Trying941]

It has been awhile since I posted, and on a quiet Saturday morning I decided to read a few old real estate threads to see how well the comments have withstood the test of time.

Why now? Because a neighbor moved in three years ago and paid $450,000 for their home. They just sold for $750,000. 67% gain in three years. I did not even know they were selling until the moving truck moved up. Kept it quiet. Sold to an investor. They took the call that I ignore.

What did I find?

Those that thought, in 2020-2023, that high interest rates and overcrowding would kill Sarasota real estate were very wrong. Those who thought that people would come here to escape the madness, even with high interest rates and escalating prices, were very right.

I am not predicting the future. I am not selling or buying.

PS. Pray for peace.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by Trying941

It has been awhile since I posted, and on a quiet Saturday morning I decided to read a few old real estate threads to see how well the comments have withstood the test of time.

Why now? Because a neighbor moved in three years ago and paid $450,000 for their home. They just sold for $750,000. 67% gain in three years. I did not even know they were selling until the moving truck moved up. Kept it quiet. Sold to an investor. They took the call that I ignore.

What did I find?

Those that thought, in 2020-2023, that high interest rates and overcrowding would kill Sarasota real estate were very wrong. Those who thought that people would come here to escape the madness, even with high interest rates and escalating prices, were very right.

I am not predicting the future. I am not selling or buying.

PS. Pray for peace.

Note investors. They're buying a lot of the houses and commercial properties in north America. Part of the reason they artificially inflate prices. They basically set the market price on housing and commercial rent now

[1rainman]

It's all about to collapse. Car prices new and used have been at record highs. This past year nobody is buying. Nobody has $80,000 for a pick up truck. Housing is similar houses are starting to sit and prices reduced to sell. No big drop yet but it seems to be at a peak. Rent market is worse tons of empty rentals due to sky high rent people can't afford. So we appear to be at leveling off ready to go down. But who knows what world events could happen tomorrow affecting things.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by 1rainman

It's all about to collapse. Car prices new and used have been at record highs. This past year nobody is buying. Nobody has $80,000 for a pick up truck. Housing is similar houses are starting to sit and prices reduced to sell. No big drop yet but it seems to be at a peak. Rent market is worse tons of empty rentals due to sky high rent people can't afford. So we appear to be at leveling off ready to go down. But who knows what world events could happen tomorrow affecting things.

Define collapse? What % = collapse, & over what period of time?

My friend just bought a brand new $80k pick-up truck last week...but he got it for $67k due to a special discount

Housing inventory is still well below average, as are days on market

Home prices have peaked & have come down, you are right on that

Rental prices have dipped 3%-9%, & I agree it seems that too many new units are coming on line:

https://www.matthews.com/multifamily...t-sarasota-fl/

But, snowbirds are just now returning, so the rental market may tighten, & since they're mostly affluent renters, they're not as price sensitive.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Define collapse? What % = collapse, & over what period of time?

My friend just bought a brand new $80k pick-up truck last week...but he got it for $67k due to a special discount

Housing inventory is still well below average, as are days on market

Home prices have peaked & have come down, you are right on that

Rental prices have dipped 3%-9%, & I agree it seems that too many new units are coming on line:

https://www.matthews.com/multifamily...t-sarasota-fl/

But, snowbirds are just now returning, so the rental market may tighten, & since they're mostly affluent renters, they're not as price sensitive.

13k, that's a pretty good discount. If this was just a year ago he wouldn't have got that discount, especially on a truck! When they were in short supply in 2021, early 2022 it would have probably had a 7k dealer markup easily!

In my area, Charlotte County housing prices are dropping and even then these things are sitting on the market. Not being snatched up in under 3 weeks like they were a year ago and at nearly full asking price. I see lots of slashing going on.

We have a new apartment complex going up, and another development going up down the road, plus all those houses going up on 776. Good if you're looking to guy or rent, but not good if you want to sell and competing with new homes.

A lot of snowbirds rent yearly, Jan, Feb, and March, the coldest months. It's much cheaper than owning a house and paying insurance, and electric on them year round. With the cost of everything going up I expect the idea of renting for snowbirds is going to become more popular.

[1rainman]

By collapse I mean we are going to get into a buyers market at some point where houses and cars are relatively cheap compared to historical norms where we have been at the highest price point in recorded history for both. I'm unsure if port Charlotte can continue to shoot up in price. It's not as nice as it used to be due to overcrowding yet it's more expensive than it used to be. I'm going to move to Alabama where it's cheaper and not as hot. Though almost anywhere looks better than here to me. North Florida, south Carolina, Alabama, Tennessee etc

I was looking at vehicles. The new vehicles came down but used cheap junkers are still high. So it needs to trickle down to the cheapo cars. Used to be you could get an old junk truck for $1500 or $2000 and for $5000 you could get a decent used vehicle. The junkers are $4000 and $5000 right now. A decent one is $7000 or $8000.

Because normally people buy a new vehicle and practically give away their old junker because it's close to the end of its life anyway but new cars or trucks have been so high everyone is keeping their old vehicles there's still a shortage of cheap used vehicles

[beach43ofus]

I know prices have dipped, but I'm still not seeing 6th most overvalued.

[beach43ofus]

So long as 1/2 million people move to FLA each year, and so many of them are affluent 50+'ers, our real estate market will continue to expand over the long haul.

There will be ebbs and flows in pricing & demand.

High interest rates will dampen things, particularly at the lower end of the market, but if you waiting for some kind of collapse, or huge correction, you'll be waiting for a long time.

When they said ours was the 6th most overvalued housing market, I'll bet they failed to include the number of future buyers into the equation. They only looked at past pricing gains, which is flawed logic.

[gotoptions]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

I don't see any big movements up or down ahead. We are in steady price decline now due to interest rates rising, & off-season (not many buyers are here in the 105 degree "feels like" heat).

In October when snow bird wannabe's return, demand will increase slowly (w/ prices) because most of them pay cash. High interest rates will mean modest demand & price growth overall though.

And yes, covid spiked our market, so that pulled a lot of future buyers into the present (last 2.5 years), so that will also smooth out future sales/pricing.

As Hb posts above, inventories are still skinny, so that will prevent large price drops.

There are lots of opposing forces pulling against each other, so I think we're in for a long boring ride of moderate ups, and downs for single family homes & 1-2 story multi family housing.

Due to the new condo concrete repair reserve laws, I think 3+ story condo prices will be the biggest downward price mover. That could push demand/prices upward for 1-2 story multi-family dwellings as well.

I'm exploring purchasing a single family home in the area and selling my condo in Tampa Bay.
I feel like your analysis still holds true today, a little over a year later.
Talking with real estate agents, the condo MIRS regulations are becoming a real issue and making people think twice before buying a condo rather than a SFH.