Is the bubble of 2009/2010 about to pop? (Orlando, Port St. Lucie: foreclosure, condos)

[lynne4t]

Yes, but.........

SW Fla. foreclosures climb | HeraldTribune.com

[SoFLGal]

Like I've said numerous times before the hard data is what I'm looking at. I was posting the links to get some reaction and see what others thoughts are on it. All the links were negative so I thought add a little balance. I'm selling homes whether the market is bad, good or indifferent. The people that write these articles write one thing one day and something completely different the next. Just like the article that Lynn4t posted.

Just to test my theory I pulled all the sales for condos in Sarasota county from Apr 1-30, 2009. There were 157. Then I pulled April 1-30, 2010 and there are 219 sales. That's not 73%. I haven't found one county in SW FL to be drastically different than the next with condo stats.

I really don't think any of the articles are quite accurate. The ones crying the sky is falling and the ones painting things all rosy and sunshiny are off base too. I think we are somewhere in the middle, like my data and research suggests and only time will tell which way things turn.

[davery5872]

I read an article yesterday about the housing situation in Ohio. All the major markets have an increase in the median price of new home sales, some as high as 70%.

[Skunk Workz]

Originally Posted by lynne4t

Yes, but.........

SW Fla. foreclosures climb | HeraldTribune.com

Not sure what they consider "foreclosure action" but it looks like both counties (Manatee and Sarasota) are down considerably over last year for new foreclosure filings.

For 4/1-5/1
Manatee:
551 in 2009 vs 291 in 2010

Sarasota:
898 in 2009 vs 442 in 2010

I didn't run all of the months, but Manatee has been trending down since the peak in December or January.

This is still a lot of foreclosures, but considerably less than last year.

[SoFLGal]

[lynne4t]

skunk-
I may be wrong, but I think the difference is in early stage and late stage foreclosures? (Maybe SOFLGal can help)

In the very same article that headlines "Short Sale Torrent Hasn't Arrived in SW Florida" is this:
By contrast, late-stage foreclosure filings, which represent the moment a bank seizes a property from a borrower, were way up.

"Bank repossessions, or REOs, hit a record monthly high for the report even while default notices dropped substantially on a monthly and annual basis," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "We expect a similar pattern to continue for most of this year, with the overall numbers staying at a high level and ripples of activity hitting the various stages of the foreclosure process as lenders systematically work through the backlog of distressed properties."

Yup! Anyone's guess as to where things will go!

[HumboldtParkShiner]

It wouldn't surprise me. That's what happens when the government artificially pumps money into the economy- eventually the money runs out. I think this country is due for a depression, tbh. The small recovery we've seen is just the government delaying it, hoping it will just go away. In reality, it is just the eye before the storm.

[gypsychic]

Schroeder-Manatee Ranch gets OK to build 5,144-home Villages of Lakewood Ranch project in north Sarasota County | HeraldTribune.com

[justNancy]

Originally Posted by davery5872

I read an article yesterday about the housing situation in Ohio. All the major markets have an increase in the median price of new home sales, some as high as 70%.

Where did you see this article? Perhaps it was talking about the increase in sales? No market has home values that have increased by 70%. Prices have gone down in most areas.

[URL="http://www.cnbc.com/id/37106639/"]Homebuyer Tax Credit Takes Its Toll[/URL]

I do agree with SoFLGal about home prices in general. I haven't seen a big price drop or increase in Charlotte or Sarasota counties. What I have seen is a decrease in the $40,000 fixer-uppers, although there are still many available.

Right now I think it's hard to use current sales figure because they've been artificially inflated by all the government incentives. Many of the April buyers will close in May & June. So IMO we need to wait until July or Aug to see if the housing market is on its way to recovery. For several months I've seen an awful lot of short sales listed. What is going to happen to all of those homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments? According to the Herald-Tribune

"In Southwest Florida, banks repossessed 790 properties during April -- three times as many as were seized in April 2009 and a 27 percent increase from March."

[URL]http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20100513/ARTICLE/5131049/2055/NEWS?p=1&tc=pg[/URL]

In other words, the statistics we're seeing seem to depend on where the banks are in the foreclosure process.

"Bank repossessions, or REOs, hit a record monthly high for the report even while default notices dropped substantially on a monthly and annual basis," said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. "We expect a similar pattern to continue for most of this year, with the overall numbers staying at a high level and ripples of activity hitting the various stages of the foreclosure process as lenders systematically work through the backlog of distressed properties."

[Sue in Ohio]

Originally Posted by justNancy

Where did you see this article? Perhaps it was talking about the increase in sales? No market has home values that have increased by 70%. Prices have gone down in most areas.

Median home prices were up a whopping 95% in the Akron metro area compared to the first quarter of last year. Heck, I am thrilled that prices in Toledo were up 13%; hopefully that will increase even more by the time we put our house on the market in a few months.