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Old 06-08-2010, 12:49 PM
 
172 posts, read 454,741 times
Reputation: 58

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Real estate will dampen Florida's economy for years

By SHANNON BEHNKEN | The Tampa Tribune

AUSTIN, Texas - Housing prices may hit the bottom later this year in many parts of the country, but seven million homes on the verge of foreclosure will keep states like Florida from improving until at least 2013.
Florida's market, which has been mired in foreclosures during the downturn, likely hasn't seen the worst of delinquencies, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate company Zillow.com.
Humphries spoke on a panel with two other top real estate experts Friday at a conference of the National Association of Real Estate Editors in Austin. They painted a bleak future for real estate.
"Florida has a big shadow inventory of homes that will go into foreclosure," Humphries said. "We expect prices to bottom in the third quarter in many markets, but Florida and Tampa Bay will lag behind."
After prices stop declining, Zillow predicts values to remain flat for three to five years.
However, consumers tend to be overly optimistic, he said. That's partly because recent housing reports have showed sales increasing by double-digits.
"While that's true," he said. "Inventory jumped up in April. Twice as many homes joined the market than sold. Inventory levels are back to July 2009 levels – before the tax credits."
Another problem, said Fannie Mae economist Douglas Duncan, is so-called strategic defaults, when homeowners choose to walk away, even if they can afford their mortgage payments.
Duncan said a recent survey of 3,500 homeowners showed that borrowers are twice as likely to consider walking away if they know someone who has chosen to default. That will add to the homes already in the foreclosure pipeline.
The downturn isn't affecting only housing. The commercial market will continue to see trouble, too, said Bob Bach, of Grubb & Ellis, one of the world's largest commercial real estate firms.
"Delinquencies are mounting, distressed assets are mounting," Bach said. "A lot of loans are coming due, and lenders are unlikely to renew if the value of the asset is too low."

Real estate will dampen Florida's economy for years (http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/jun/04/florida-real-estate-will-retard-floridas-economy-y/news-realestate/?source=patrick.net - broken link)
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Old 06-08-2010, 01:33 PM
 
Location: englewood
1,580 posts, read 2,986,278 times
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this may or may not be true. some say it will get worse others say we have seen the worse. all i know is that zillow is not one to believe. zillow is quite often off on estimated prices and actual sales prices by 100K to 200K or more.
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Old 06-08-2010, 02:05 PM
 
16,755 posts, read 36,284,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gettinoutofjersey View Post
this may or may not be true. some say it will get worse others say we have seen the worse. all i know is that zillow is not one to believe. zillow is quite often off on estimated prices and actual sales prices by 100K to 200K or more.
I agree - all articles (good or bad) need to be taken with a grain of salt. Around here things are looking pretty good. My neighborhood has seen a lot of sales in the past year, a couple years ago there were some neglected foreclosures at cheap prices, but they all have sold, and a few even flipped already. Even the much-maligned north Tamiami Trail has new stuff being built!
We'll see. Whatever happens, we are in our little home, we love it and we plan to stay.
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Old 06-08-2010, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Sarasota, FL
1,642 posts, read 3,179,535 times
Reputation: 813
Quote:
said Stan Humphries, chief economist for the real estate company Zillow.com.
I quit reading right here.

Do people really not realize what a sham Zillow is?

It's only gotten worse since this thread:

//www.city-data.com/forum/real-...-zillow-5.html

Meanwhile, I'm sure that you're just "dishing the 411," but really, you're just making things worse. Even if it had been an even marginally reputable source (as opposed to Zillow), they still just do not KNOW. Speculation is just that--speculation.

If there were an actual all-knowing authority on this, he would speak, and everyone would either buy or not buy depending on what he says.

This does not exist.

I cannot see any use to this information.
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Old 06-08-2010, 03:02 PM
 
172 posts, read 454,741 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rushmore View Post
I cannot see any use to this information.
The more good information out there the better, IMHO. I would like everyone to make an informed decision if they are looking to buy real estate. Some people are out there spreading misinformation about the market hitting the bottom. Real estate is still overvalued in most areas. Check out:

Is Housing Already Double Dipping? -- Seeking Alpha
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Old 06-08-2010, 03:56 PM
 
Location: Toronto
86 posts, read 149,938 times
Reputation: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by dishing the 9411 View Post
The more good information out there the better, IMHO. I would like everyone to make an informed decision if they are looking to buy real estate. Some people are out there spreading misinformation about the market hitting the bottom. Real estate is still overvalued in most areas. Check out:

Is Housing Already Double Dipping? -- Seeking Alpha
Wow, this is bad news.
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Old 06-08-2010, 06:35 PM
 
Location: Palm Island and North Port
7,511 posts, read 21,836,522 times
Reputation: 2858
Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
I agree - all articles (good or bad) need to be taken with a grain of salt. Around here things are looking pretty good. My neighborhood has seen a lot of sales in the past year, a couple years ago there were some neglected foreclosures at cheap prices, but they all have sold, and a few even flipped already. Even the much-maligned north Tamiami Trail has new stuff being built!
We'll see. Whatever happens, we are in our little home, we love it and we plan to stay.
I totally agree with this. Many of these articles paint things with a broad brush and as I'm sure many of heard, real estate is local.

Being on the front lines I've seen a slow and steady increase in prices and the amount of sales in the last few months. Even the last few weeks have been really strong, in spite of the oil spill disaster.

If you believed every article that you read whether it's good or bad, you'd be going crazy. Newspapers, news channels, etc are there to sell advertising. Shocking stories sell advertising. Take the local paper for example. One day they report there's a drastic decrease in sales and prices and then a few days later they report the opposite. That what sells papers. I also agree with the Zillow comment. Any article that uses data from Zillow I immediately discredit and stop reading. That website, for the most part, is grossly inaccurate.

I base my thought and posts on real facts and data from the MLS, my experience and being on the front lines.
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Old 06-08-2010, 06:47 PM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
6,103 posts, read 14,362,050 times
Reputation: 1245
I have watched zillow for years. They have a few features that are really good. Like thier mapping views that have flags that show houses for sale in some areas, and the supposed price. They have Zillow estimates, and tell you information about the houses. I like it for that. IT IS TOO BAD, that thier information is sooooo not accurate. It seems that it almost never matches the accessed values, market values, sell price (except by a fluke of luck) sometimes.

I think that when the market crashed, that a lot of government agencies and consumers looked to zillow to explore investment opportunities. I think that Zillow's value really took off at that point, and they do sell advertising. The troubled economy has helped them tremendously, and their accuracy has not improved. I have looked at properties all around, including in Florida, and in MD, and found a good real estate agent to be much more valueable when it comes to finding out what is happening in each market. - For what all that is worth.
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Old 06-08-2010, 07:50 PM
 
172 posts, read 454,741 times
Reputation: 58
I'm not a fan of Zillow.com either; however, Stan Humphries analysis of the current local real estate market has merit. There are a lot of good real estate agents in town, and there are a lot of cheerleaders. If you need to buy property, then now is a good time. If you dont need to buy, then the smart decision is to do your research. We have lost, generally speaking, the perception of value as we are emerging from a decade of easy money and bubble prices.
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Old 06-09-2010, 02:26 AM
 
32 posts, read 49,642 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by dishing the 9411 View Post
The more good information out there the better, IMHO. I would like everyone to make an informed decision if they are looking to buy real estate. Some people are out there spreading misinformation about the market hitting the bottom. Real estate is still overvalued in most areas. Check out:

Is Housing Already Double Dipping? -- Seeking Alpha
Agree 9411 that the more good info, the better. And I support that people make informed decisions in buying real estate. I can attest to the downsides of buying on a whim or based on emotions and hopes!! I read the same article you posted and thought it had merit. It certainly is speculative, though, and we each have to follow our intuition on which articles/research resonate with our guidance. The subject of housing double dipping has been predicted by reputable economists and demographic consultant, Harry S Dent.

On the other hand, since SW Florida has been so badly hit, I wonder can housing prices really go much lower? I agree with SoFLGal that the markets vary and one has to consider the local market in their mix of research. I liked the MLS data sheet you posted recently of local sales, etc. You can't argue with those local stats that the trend is moving slightly up from the bottom. I just hope it doesn't dip back down now that April's tax credit deadline has passed and we're unsure of the oil spill's effects on this area -- but I think it might.

As a buyer, I recently terminated a contract for risks brought up in inspection. Honestly, I was also influenced by "fears" of the effects of the oil spill on the FL coast. Then I read more per advice from a few friends about the potential double dipping in housing. There must be other potential buyers like me who are a little skiddish about buying due to multiple factors: double dipping of real estate depreciation, increase in strategic foreclosures, banks tightening still on Florida condo lending, and the unknowns of the oil spill--until this thing is contained and we have more of an idea of its effects.
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