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And I see the dates projected by the singularity crowd vary by up to 15 years....
That is a easy question to answer and I have done it many times before which is why I did not this time and instead asked you a question. However maybe you missed it so I will answer it again.
There are two dates for the singularity and both are right. Let me explain:
People like Verner Vinge use the 2030 date. This is the one I go with. The reason is the basic definition is when computers merge with humans so that if someone from say the 1960's was transported there he would not really understand how life had changed due to computers. Since by 2030 computers the size of blood cells will have more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's and humans will have millions if not billions in their bodies impacting everything from health and medicine to intelligence changing life dramatically practically speaking people will say the singularity is here.
Then you have the engineering date that engineers like Ray Kurzweil use and that is 2045. By 2045 a computer that costs $1,000 will have 1 billion times more intelligence then all the humans on the planet today. At that point all the models break down as information technology will be advancing so fast that no current model can predict how it will go.
There you have it the two main dates and why both are right. That is why I go with a date range of 2030-2045 for the singularity.
Now that I have answered your question can you answer mine? I will post it again.
Do you think computers will stop advancing or slow down to the point that in the next decade, by 2030, humans don't merge with them? If so why?
As I've repeatedly said, "experts" of all types have been so dead wrong with their "predictions" over the centuries it's laughable...
Nope, I believe the Grays from Altair4 will land on Earth and sign the Galactic Grand Alliance long before Human Beings merge with computers...
That should be clear enough even for you...
So if I understand you correctly you think that after computers have been advancing exponentially since the first one was built in 1890 that it will suddenly stop and computers will not merge with humans by 2030? I find that fascinating as it goes against all the trends and mathematical models.
Trans-humanism is one aspect of the singularity but they don't take into account the biggest part of the singularity and that is when computes and humans merge. That will happen by 2030.
As far as the soul debate. With current technology its just that a debate. However with projects like the Blue Brain Project reverse engineering the brain and a scheduled completion date of 2019-2023 we will have a bigger understanding of where our consciousness comes from. At that point we will know exactly how we will be able to transfer our conscious to another body.
We are very much closer and projects like the Blue Brain Project and applications like Siri are proof of that. The key to all this is how they are and will advance exponentially. That is why we will see significant advances by 2030.
He does not take into account that biology and genetics is now a form of information technology thus advancing exponentially. Plus once computers the size of blood cells have more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's (by 2030) they will be used to augment the immune system effectively ending disease for anyone who has them. So its not just one thing what will allow us to live a very long time but a combination of things that when used together will allow life spans to increase greatly.
People like him make the singularity out to be more then it is. Its not some cosmic event its just when computers merge with humans and the impact it will have on society. Granted that impact will be bigger then anything society has ever experienced but the basic principal is really simple. We can see it in today's world as I did all this research on a computer in a few minutes that in the 1980's would have taken me days at a local library to do. If they even had the right periodicals if not I would have had to travel to a different library and it would have taken me even more time. Does anyone really think its going to stop here? Its not.
Bionic eye implant will become available in u.s. In coming weeks
One of the things I post about is how computers will merge with humans for the singularity. Well there is another example of that today as the bionic eye is going to be approved in the United States. Again fast forward 10 - 15 years with computers advancing exponentially and see what we will have.............
The Argus II retinal implant is like a cochlear implant for the blind. It looks like computing goggles such as Google Glass, but it sends the images the eyeglass-mounted visual processing unit detects to a tiny electrode array that’s been implanted in the user’s retina. Electrical stimulation sends visual information up the optic nerve to the visual cortex of the user’s brain, allowing him or her to see.
You could call it a bionic eye, and average Americans will gain access to it before the end of 2013. The device, made by California-based Second Sight with support from the Department of Energy, will in the coming weeks become medically available in the United States for patients blinded by retinitis pigmentosa, or RP, a degenerative eye disease that affects 1 in 4,000 Americans.
So if I understand you correctly you think that after computers have been advancing exponentially since the first one was built in 1890 that it will suddenly stop and computers will not merge with humans by 2030? I find that fascinating as it goes against all the trends and mathematical models.
Ummm, your thought processes are warped...
I didn't say advances on computers would stop but I did quite emphatically say that this singularity you are trying to champion is a load of BS.
Josseppie asked: 1) Do you agree they are advancing exponentially
No
Josseppie asked: 2) Do you agree that computers the size of blood cells will have thousands of more processing capability then all of NASA by 2030?
No
Now I understand. So that brings up 2 more questions:
1) How do you explain the fact that computers have gone from ones that took up entire buildings in the 1960's to ones that fit on our face today (Google glasses) yet have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's?
2) Why do you think that process will not continue so by 2030 computers the size of blood cells will have thousands of times more processing capability then all of NASA in the 1960's?
Last edited by Josseppie; 11-20-2013 at 10:53 AM..
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Bionic eye implant will become available in u.s. In coming weeks
