House prices, am I missing something? (Seattle, Bellevue: rent, neighborhood, buying)

[mkarch]

Originally Posted by Ira500

Also, the economy wasn't all that healthy during the bubble years...Part of it was the loose lending standards, where they'd lend money to anybody with a pulse, it was a particularly manipulated real estate market.

This is an interesting point a lot of people have overlooked. Home equity withdrawl was making up the lions share of GDP growth many quarters from 2003-2006. Much of the building was financed through loans that didn't represent current or future income streams, and people didn't end up paying back the money.

Compared to that, the current market based on corrected prices and tighter loan qualifications looks considerably more stable. Not to say it isn't severly disbalanced as the result of bank and government manipulation, but the disbalance doesn't seem to be based on loans people are unable to pay back.

[Garfunkle524]

Originally Posted by mkarch

Compared to that, the current market based on corrected prices and tighter loan qualifications looks considerably more stable. Not to say it isn't severly disbalanced as the result of bank and government manipulation, but the disbalance doesn't seem to be based on loans people are unable to pay back.

Right, I guess "healthy" wasn't really what I meant. But this just reaffirms my point that incomes are not where they need to be to support the type of prices we had during the bubble. That's why it was a bubble. I question whether we'll get there any time soon and what kind of effect we'll see on the Seattle housing market where prices are currently "low" but still absurdly high.

[mkarch]

Originally Posted by Garfunkle524

Right, I guess "healthy" wasn't really what I meant. But this just reaffirms my point that incomes are not where they need to be to support the type of prices we had during the bubble. That's why it was a bubble. I question whether we'll get there any time soon and what kind of effect we'll see on the Seattle housing market where prices are currently "low" but still absurdly high.

I'll say I think this is highly neighborhood dependent. Incomes (and savings) are high enough to support current prices in some areas. If you look at what happened in other markets that peaked well before Seattle, the tide of price collapse in the exurbs and suburbs didn't roll in evenly at all. Neighborhoods with the types of homes, lots and locations that weren't easy to reproduce saw a much lower decline and faster rebound.

The fact is some neighborhoods didn't have a high % of sales during the bubble, and even some that did were going up in price due to gentrification. Not all neighborhoods had a high concentration of low down payment loans or subprime financing. These areas held value better and weren't subject to the mass exodus we saw in recently built far flung tract developments built from 2002-2009. When the market froze up in late 2008-2009, there was a temporary lull in purchases of 'least expensive homes in desirable neighborhoods' but that quickly swung back and these value homes remained in high demand.

[BellevueNative]

Originally Posted by metoque

Ever been to Seattle September through June? Just kidding

I totally agree that Seattle is practically as expensive as Southern California. I know it's what the market is demanding, but Seattle is way overpriced in my opinion for what you get.

Originally Posted by metoque

My wife and I are looking at housing in San Diego (Poway school district), and we can get a similar home for a similar price when comparing to where we live in Bellevue. No matter which way you slice it, it's ludicrous that Seattle has comparable housing prices to southern California. The only reason it's expensive here is because of Amazon and Microsoft...not because it's such a desirable place to live. Like one poster said earlier, before these companies existed here the housing prices were much more reasonable for the average consumer. California has always been expensive because of the weather, beaches, etc...Seattle is expensive just because of Amazon and Microsoft.

Sorry, but "desirable" is subjective. I went to college in Southern California, and while it was fun then, I wouldn't want to live there permanently. I find much of The Southland to be ugly as hell. But then, I'm not a beach person, and I would much rather be too cold than too hot. I also wouldn't want to live so close to the Mexican border (in SD).

[debyne]

Originally Posted by BellevueNative

Sorry, but "desirable" is subjective. I went to college in Southern California, and while it was fun then, I wouldn't want to live there permanently. I find much of The Southland to be ugly as hell. But then, I'm not a beach person, and I would much rather be too cold than too hot. I also wouldn't want to live so close to the Mexican border (in SD).

That's true. Let me restate by saying that in the majority of cases, more people would be a pick nice area of California to live as opposed to a nice area of the Pacific Northwest.

[alvist]

Originally Posted by debyne

That's true. Let me restate by saying that in the majority of cases, more people would be a pick nice area of California to live as opposed to a nice area of the Pacific Northwest.

San Diego County is beautiful to visit. It's stunning in fact depending on where you are. Driving down Twin Valley Oaks road to look over the 78 corridor between Vista and San Marcos, even though it's just shopping/residential/offices, is still a wonderful view. The weather... if you love the sun, there is no place I've ever been like it. Days with cloud cover are so rare they feel alien. Days where you need a jacket really do not exist, though long time locals break out the winter coats at anything under 50 degrees.

You can surf or cycle here quite readily. Hiking... not so much, but only because the areas where real hiking trails exist are so far inland that it's desert hiking and unbearably hot.

We still have our 2013 passes to the Zoo, SeaWorld and Disneyland (we have a daughter). All of them are easy Saturday or Sunday trips.

If this sounds like paradise to you and you have a stable job available in the area (stable in terms of the modern economy, 4-6 years minimum without much risk of being blindsided by a layoff or company shut down) that pays well, it can be a great place to live.

However, having lived in the area for a few years, I can tell you that unless the sun dominates your happiness, it is not much of a paradise. It's expensive to live here in almost every way. Gas, groceries, taxes, utilities and housing are all on the high end. 10%+ of your income will go just to the privilege of living in the State. The sunshine requires constant sunblock and sunglasses, lest your skin and eyes deteriorate more quickly than they should.

Those "beautiful" homes you see? They're built horribly. It's as though the pure sun climate made every builder in the area feel that things like right angles and straight edges are just conventions holding back their creativity. I've yet to see a home < $2m that didn't have absolutely terrible finishing on the interior. Footboards that don't meet the floor. Windows that are made out of what seems to be cheap plastic. Walls that warp, not like a funhouse mirror, but just enough to make hanging a picture a pain sometimes. These are $750,000-$1,000,000 homes.

There is also a terrible void in terms of cultural activities. Schools are generally poor outside of a few exceptions that are more inland (Poway is ok). Traffic is terrible getting into and out of the city. It may feel like Seattle has few routes, but the 5 when going North from San Diego is the -only- route if you want to get to anything near LA. The 15 kicks off the wrong way. I've seen drives that take < 1 hr without traffic take 3.5-4 without any accident prompting it.

The sun worship culture here, at least for us, leaves much to be desired. It is plastic, materialistic. Of all the places we've lived, it is the one that seems most under the influence of the most temporary types of happiness.

Perhaps it is paradise for some, but we do not know any of those people personally.

[metoque]

Originally Posted by alvist

San Diego County is beautiful to visit. It's stunning in fact depending on where you are. Driving down Twin Valley Oaks road to look over the 78 corridor between Vista and San Marcos, even though it's just shopping/residential/offices, is still a wonderful view. The weather... if you love the sun, there is no place I've ever been like it. Days with cloud cover are so rare they feel alien. Days where you need a jacket really do not exist, though long time locals break out the winter coats at anything under 50 degrees.

You can surf or cycle here quite readily. Hiking... not so much, but only because the areas where real hiking trails exist are so far inland that it's desert hiking and unbearably hot.

We still have our 2013 passes to the Zoo, SeaWorld and Disneyland (we have a daughter). All of them are easy Saturday or Sunday trips.

If this sounds like paradise to you and you have a stable job available in the area (stable in terms of the modern economy, 4-6 years minimum without much risk of being blindsided by a layoff or company shut down) that pays well, it can be a great place to live.

Sounds like paradise to me.

[PollyGlott]

Originally Posted by alvist

San Diego County is beautiful to visit. It's stunning in fact depending on where you are. Driving down Twin Valley Oaks road to look over the 78 corridor between Vista and San Marcos, even though it's just shopping/residential/offices, is still a wonderful view. The weather... if you love the sun, there is no place I've ever been like it. Days with cloud cover are so rare they feel alien. Days where you need a jacket really do not exist, though long time locals break out the winter coats at anything under 50 degrees.
The sun worship culture here, at least for us, leaves much to be desired. It is plastic, materialistic. Of all the places we've lived, it is the one that seems most under the influence of the most temporary types of happiness..

Agreed! As a former San Diegan (30+ years), I was very glad to leave the blandness behind.

[BellevueNative]

California is also completely screwed up financially, and it's only going to get worse. The new taxes voted into law in November is just a stop gap measure. The state has no idea how to control its spending, and, I'll say it, they're completely screwed due to undocumented immigrants that have overwhelmed the education, health and other systems. It's a good thing so many in SoCal are so clueless about news and politics, or more of them would move up here! ;-)

[metoque]

Originally Posted by BellevueNative

California is also completely screwed up financially, and it's only going to get worse. The new taxes voted into law in November is just a stop gap measure. The state has no idea how to control its spending, and, I'll say it, they're completely screwed due to undocumented immigrants that have overwhelmed the education, health and other systems. It's a good thing so many in SoCal are so clueless about news and politics, or more of them would move up here! ;-)

Newsflash! Washington state is having no picnic either. Our government is running out of money too which is why they keep secretly discussing an income tax. I do wholeheartedly agree that California is worse, but Washington is headed down the same path if we don't get our **** together.